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Mike Ariza
California downstream fuel/petroleum expert, former Senior Refinery Control Board Supervisor at the Valero Benicia refinery and US Navy veteran who writes on California's energy and gasoline crisis.
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Jul 26, 2026
Kontrarian Korner #135 - Mike Ariza & C.J. Nord
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0:51Mike ArizaGUEST
try not to go through this too fast, but California put itself in a bad position with regard to supply.
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1:20Mike ArizaGUEST
Um, Then with California's regulations, different things affected other refineries.
17 MINS LATER
Fuel and Food California's Crossroads - Regulatory over reach hits home hard.
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0:52Mike ArizaGUEST
Well, what's going on right now? As you know, California is 40% dependent on its fuel imports.
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0:58Mike ArizaGUEST
Where we used to be energy dominant and making our own fuel, we've lost two refineries in 2023, converted to renewable diesel, which means 350,000 barrels of their crude oil processing went offline.
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1:11Mike ArizaGUEST
And what that means in simple layman terms is no gasoline from those refineries and no jet fuel.
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1:18Mike ArizaGUEST
Then the state signed a couple bills into law, Wilmington and Phillips 66 of Wilmington and Valero and Bidisha.
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1:27Mike ArizaGUEST
Those two refineries shut down October last year, and then Valero pulled the plug on January 31st.
30 MINS LATER
Assemblyman Stan Ellis and Mike Ariza Stop by and Talk about California on Empty
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17:27Mike ArizaGUEST
You know, it's, it's one of the things we, the three of us had figured out a long time ago is, you know, you get the, you get, like, the refinery shut down.
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17:36Mike ArizaGUEST
Um, you end up in that situation where you're not produc- um, you're not producing your own, and then you end up in a situation where something happens, you know.
Gas Prices Going Up (02/16)
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9:14Mike ArizaGUEST
and they kept talking and you know, they just continue to important that's the we had concerns the three of us me and the professor and Stan Ellis the assemblyman that we were reaching the point of the docks our ports ability to offload these tankers that are coming from overseas which is a big vulnerability and risk in itself and I think what we're seeing now is with Valero dropping off at four point three to four point five million gallons a day of production is gone and I think we're starting to see that where the supply is really starting to get constrained.
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9:49Mike ArizaGUEST
You get down to about 12 days of supply on hand of gasoline and the price will start to go through the roof.
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9:59Mike ArizaGUEST
And probably because of the specific fact that Benicia is in Northern California, we've seen the prices in a lot of areas around here going up even higher.
12 MINS LATER
Valero Shutting Down Benicia, CA Oil Refinery (02/05)
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4:26Mike ArizaGUEST
Well, we need to step back real quick back to 2023 and why Valero is such a major impact.
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4:34Mike ArizaGUEST
Back in 2023, the Rodeo and Marathon refineries – They were converted onto renewable diesel, so they shut down.
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4:48Mike ArizaGUEST
Why that matters is, at that point, they are no longer making gasoline, jet fuel, or propane.
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4:54Mike ArizaGUEST
So back in 2023, we started importing around 18% to 20% of our fuel from Singapore, South Korea, and India.
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5:05Mike ArizaGUEST
Then Phillips 66 went down, as you know, in October, and That was another 9 to 10% of our fuel production.

