Middle power

I mean, there are a couple of separate issues here.

Does AI offer, in your description of it, it seems to offer countries, middle powers and maybe even small powers that would never aspire to nuclear weapons, some kind of capability to raise the stakes even against nuclear armed threats, nuclear armed opponents.

The other thing I worry about is the earlier scenario that you raised, which is that if one side gains a strategic advantage, that AI could be so powerful that it could effectively disarm the nuclear arsenal of an opponent.

Well, to tackle your first question, we're at this fascinating moment, this fascinating juncture in history where there's been a breakdown between the normal relationship between economic and military power.

These are very expensive investments.

But we're also now seeing the reverse of that, where armed groups like the Houthis in Yemen are, this very month, You know, forcing Saudi Arabia, a very wealthy and militarily well-equipped state, to shut down its primary airport because they can't defend it.

So at the moment, we are seeing, you know, the ability of small middle powers and even non-state actors to generate incredible amounts of power.

military power and military force.

I'm also a member of the expert group and a co-author and supporter of the paper.

Our paper addresses the question, what can Canada and other middle powers accomplish together when the international arrangements on which we have relied become less dependable, mostly as a consequence of the behavior of the United States under Donald Trump? The report urges Prime Minister Mark Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to use their forthcoming summit in Montreal to launch a wider approach compact among democratic middle powers.

The proposal draws inspiration from the 1941 Atlantic Charter signed by Winston Churchill and Franklin Delano Roosevelt outside of Placentia Bay in Newfoundland, if I recall.

Our paper sets out five principles, defending democracy at home, protecting each country's right to determine its future, making interdependence a source of strength rather than coercion, pooling investment and capabilities, and strengthening international cooperation on problems no country can solve alone.

It also calls for a work program with tangible priorities, responsibilities, and benchmarks.

The proposal is ambitious, start with Canada and Europe, invite other democratic middle powers to shape the common framework, and turn shared principles into practical cooperation.

Its test will be what follows, decisions, investment, capabilities, and the willingness to help one another when doing so carries a cost.

For Canada, the question is whether that gives us greater capacity to protect our interests and makes our choices, make our own choices.

And that is a big motivation, both in terms of our closer association, Canada and the European Union, but also this broader approach of finding like-minded partners in the alliance.

More from Prime Minister Carney over here about the middle powers.

Earlier this year, you warned if the middle powers are not at the table, they're on the menu.

Talk to us about the middle powers.

Play this clip.

The presidents of the US, China, and Russia are preparing to meet next month.

Early this year, you warned if the middle powers are not at the table, they are on the menu.

Are Canada and Europe

So why does this matter? If Germany succeeds in finding new partners, this could mean a change potentially in its relationship with the U.S.

And it is also a sign of the growing importance of middle powers in the Indo-Pacific beyond China and how they are becoming indispensable partners.

So to discuss all of this here with me is Steven Beardsley from DW's business department.

Hi, Stephen.

And one country for Germany is, for example, Mongolia.

This is one that is not on the Chancellor's trip list now this week, but it's definitely something where Germany is going to have a a much closer look because it's a country that has a lot of natural resources and has strong ties with Germany.

So yes, it is about building those strategic partnerships, agreeing on a set of rules, trusting that the other side also has a very, very big interest in not being too dependent on those major powers who are beginning to go rogue And where these smaller countries that are emerging middle powers feel that they just need to build lasting relationships.

And Nina, you mentioned Japan's strategy to reduce its dependency when it comes to raw materials from China.

And he, Mark really impresses me.

I think the leadership he's shown, I think the approach he's taken to President Trump um the way he's standing up for what do you call it middle ranking powers middle powers i think that's got a lot a lot to be said for it the ability of countries the size of canada in the uk to really show some some leadership and to work together and my select committee was in canada in in June and we learned a lot from the conversations we had.

So I think the relationship between the UK and Canada has never been stronger and I think it's very much enhanced by the fact that the two premiers get on so well.

It was wonderful to see them enjoying sports.

You said something really, really key there, Laura, and it is this moral leadership.

And I think there's so much in this point.

I come back to it again about what Mark Carney said at Davos about middle powers, because Sometimes, I think India and China actually are doing some things that are showing some leadership on topics like climate.

It's not always a particular popular thing to say, but they get some of this stuff because they have to.

I'm not going to show the next clip, but it would have shown Simon Weston, basically, a Falklands veteran, explaining exactly what I just did, but better.

I totally understand why some people are concerned, because it does feel like we're in a state of pre-war Caesarism, with Trump asserting his will over Venezuela, Greenland and Iran, Putin over Ukraine, Netanyahu over Palestine, Mark Carney and the prospective Confederation of Middle Powers and whatnot, and of course China.

But I don't think this is the case with Javier Millet at all.

I simply think he's come under serious internal pressure due to this change of tact from the US on the UK's, obviously, Falklands administration.

Yeah, so with that, I do want to mention Canada a little bit because US-Canada right now is in a kind of a weird relationship.

And of course, you know, that's a perfect segue to your forthcoming book, which is about middle powers and Canadian Prime Minister Carney made that, you know brought that idea into the forefront of people's mind again with his world economic forum speech um so where do you see like and i don't know north america as much as asia but i see kind of similarity between canada and japan to some extent, right? Both middle powers, both very, very essential, but of course, both a smaller size than US and China.

And both are the neighbors kind of, they have one superpower that they, political um geographically kind of gravitate towards you know it's not their choice but whether they want it or not so how do you see i'm very interested because you know japan so well asia so well and you're a canadian

so this is such an interesting question because i think um So Canada is a middle power.

What they need is to go back to the 1990s and 80s where they had productive and positive partnerships with their immediate neighbors.

And today, that's just not true.

I also read somewhere from your work where you said simply just having united middle powers to counter superpowers, that wouldn't work.

So maybe you can tell us a little bit more about your forthcoming book, your idea about what works for middle powers.