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Mick Bransfield

Oct 15, 2026

33:50
So maybe you could circle, like, what actually is signal if, if, if you think that the NFL and Sydney Sweeney are just, uh, goyslop here.
33:59
Well, I, I think, uh, Chris Dodd, Gary Gensler, you know, 140 Amer- uh, Native American tribes, like, I, I think that will get the Supreme Court's attention more than the NFL.
34:11
I think Pratik dis- disagrees on that point.
34:14
Uh, but just in terms of what's breaking now that will affect traders, we had the Sixth Circuit loss the other day, uh, another three-nothing loss for Kalshi.
34:25
This will potentially affect traders in Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and we're still waiting on the Fourth Circuit to finally issue an opinion.
34:34
Uh, I think it's been seven or eight months since they heard oral arguments, which is an unusually long time.
34:40
Uh, Kalshi will almost certainly lose that case three-nothing as well, and that will potentially affect traders in West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, uh, North Carolina, South Carolina.
39:20
But I think that when you see him taking steps to curtail what's allowed in the markets, I think that's kind of an effort to create some kind of legitimacy around the ultimately favorable regime he would like to see happen.
24:36
And I guess it's an impossible question to ask, I think, at this point, which is, what's going on right now? What are the state of affairs with prediction markets in states and federally? I don't even know how to ask this question because it seems like every time I turn on the news, there's five different rulings that disagree with each other.
24:58
I would say the technical term is it's a mess.
25:02
So we have, I think, 195 different court dockets with different cases at the federal district, the federal appellate, and the state court level all over the country.
25:15
Courts are handling this issue on their own with very little guidance from Congress, and so we're seeing a lot of bad court decisions, I would say, and we're seeing a lot of conflicting court decisions.
25:31
There are two main issues going on.
25:33
The first is federal commodities law is coming into conflict with state gaming law, and how do we reconcile the two? The second is the CFTC has exclusive authority over commodities, but tribal reservations also have exclusive authority over gaming on their reservations.
25:54
How do we reconcile those two exclusive authorities that are now coming into conflict?

8 MINS LATER

33:38
Are we just looking? Is everyone kind of playing this game? And eventually we're going to hear from the Supreme Court.

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