Let's get to, uh, your second data point here heading into week nine.

You know, I want to give the Titans a little bit of credit because we spent a lot of time talking about how bad they look, and they still lost, right? They did lose, but I don't think they are the worst-looking team in the NFL.

I think those rights are reserved for somebody else in the AFC South, neither here nor there.

But Tony Pollard, and I believe that the Titans are on a bye, so just thinking through, this running back, Matt Harmon, Probably one of the more underrated back to back to back.

And it looks like a fourth straight incoming year of a thousand yards for Tony Pollard.

But he has been on a heater after that three touchdown performance in week seven, 25 carries, 129 yards.

Ain't no way he could do it again.

Ray, hit us with your third one.

It's a controversial one, so let's hear it.

Derrick Henry.

Derrick Henry, the king, is what they call him.

Future first ballot Hall of Famer.

One of the best running backs in the NFL.

One of the best running backs of our generation.

And if you don't remember his story arc, he didn't even really play the first two years of his career.

But let's get to your second data point and talking about a receiver who's maybe a little bit higher on the ranking scale than Deion Burks.

Talk people off the ledge.

We do this shit every year, y'all.

We do it every year.

We do it every year for significantly thinner prospect pools.

The issue that I have talked about this for a couple of years now that is impacting 2027 is, is the fact that people don't know the names.

If I ask people to name me five tight ends in the class, they probably could give me one or two.

If I asked them to name five running backs in the class, they could probably give me three or four.

So what is something that maybe you either seen as a positive or maybe it's something that you're like, I need to fix this going into 2027.

Really excited to hear what you have to say on this particular player.

Yeah, let's talk about this year two wide receiver.

And you know, sometimes, Matt, when the breakout is happening, in the moment, we try to talk ourselves out of it.

Ah, can it sustain? Can it continue? I don't know.

I don't know.

And then you look up and it's week 13, week 14, and you're like, damn, the player was pretty doggone good.

And that's what we're having right now in Green Bay.

That's all we talked

So, with that, uh, with that in the background, let's talk more about why the Eagles offense has been a disaster so far, Ray.

Yeah, Matt.

This is one where, again, I, I'm trying to put our minds back into what our expectations were coming into the season.

And regardless if you or I thought that they were going to be an elite offense, I don't think anybody predicted that they would be as bad as they are right now.

So, let me give you some points here about Philadelphia's offense.

I'm sure we've seen a lot of them.

Their offense right now, they are third overall in the NFL in wide receiver target share, but yet only tied for 15th in overall wide receiver targets.

But Ray, let's get to your second, uh, data point here heading into week five.

Who has been worse versus the baseline that we expect from them this season, of where we think they should be at and expect them to be at versus how they've played, Matt Stafford or Joe Burrow?

Uh, oof, man.

Matt Stafford or Joe Burrow? I, I'm going to go, I'm gonna go with Matt Stafford.

It, it's tough not to point and look at the NFL reigning MVP.

He, I heard a stat today that he's already up to the interception total that he didn't reach until, like, mid-November of last season.

This was a team that people thought would kinda cake walk through [laughs] not just the NFC West, but the NFL en route to a Super Bowl appearance.

Yet you're watching them every week and, uh, yes, you've got Puka Nacua, so that helps.

Of Houston and the Chargers.

What's your first data point?

Yeah, let's talk about a player that was drafted at the beginning of sort of the draft process in round one, and then an injury kinda scared people off of him and he fell.

And then right before the season, he kinda started to get that steam back up.

But Ashton Jeanty, starting running back of the Las Vegas Raiders.

And you see right here, Raider on a lost arc.

Ashton Jeanty, uh, the volume is there.

He is a, a volume-based running back.

What is your third data point heading into week four?

It's the year of the tight end.

Noah Fant scored [laughs] yeah, Noah Fant, Juwan Johnson, Brock Ba- th- this was, this was a game of all the tight ends.

And, and the biggest takeaway from this Las Vegas side, y- y'all, I, I can't, we cannot- You look at this Raiders team, there's no real wide receiver of consequence but Brock Bowers.

I mean, Kirk Cousins had, like, laser focus for number 89.

He didn't score until the end, but Bowers going into half, he had seven for 87 at halftime for Brock Bowers, and he finished with 116 yards and the touchdown.

Ashton Jeanty really struggled against this New Orleans defense, uh, to find, uh, rushing opportunity.

The most explosive running play came from Mike Washington, who had a big run in this game.

Mm.

Gosh.

They just recovered another one.

New England generated negative .4 EPA per pass play, although Drake May's average depth to target was still 11 and a half yards down the field.

Average time to throw was 3.26 seconds.

Jacksonville pressured on 54% of dropbacks, and they did that while only blitzing 13 and a half percent of the time.

Drake May, l- listen, this is bad.

When their most consistent offensive weapon is Mac Hollins, who should have had a touchdown right over, uh, Travis Hunter in the end zone, just hit off the top of his hands.

Mm.

Mm.

About 15% of the rushing yard, uh, rushing yard total is down.

We were about at 1,400 rushing yards from the quarterbacks at this point in time last year, and we're right around 1,200 yards.

Carries are down.

Rushing touchdowns are down 15%, 10%, 17%.

So when you're talking about fewer attempts, slightly worse efficiency, yards per carry is down for the quarterback position.

We spent a lot of time in the off-season talking about this onesie group of QBs and how impactful a rush is versus a, a, a pass, especially when you're talking about some of those, the Bo Nixes, the Malik Willises of, of the group.

Yeah

I mean, Ray, may- maybe it's pointless of, of me trying to work through this decision-making, but is it potentially that Kellen Moore and company signed Travis Etienne, they got in camp, and they kinda just realized he's not as good as we thought he was? Or is this all, "Hey, we wanna split the backfield as much as possible, and we'll pay him, you know, that type of running back salary and still only use him a third to a half of the time"?

Can I say both things can be true? I mean, everybody on this panel has had multiple conversations with players who have played in the NFL, listening to what happens behind the scenes on the practice field.

It, it doesn't take long, right? Once you get into camp, once you start play- like, it doesn't take by week six for the NFL coach to figure out if this guy's good or this guy's going to be a player or have a bigger role or a smaller role.

Like, you know pretty quickly what you've got in somebody very early on.

And I, I'm trying to think back to the summer.

Were there tea leaves that we were just ignoring and missing that they were using multiple backs in camp, that he wasn't going to be this workhorse? Watching the flow of the game, y'all, it wasn't like they got blown out and they take him off the field.

Alvin Kamara was on the field Early down situations, third down situations, he was not on the...

Oh, no

I mean, Ray, may- maybe it's pointless of, of me trying to work through this decision-making, but is it potentially that Kellen Moore and company signed Travis Etienne, they got in camp, and they kinda just realized he's not as good as we thought he was? Or is this all, "Hey, we wanna split the backfield as much as possible, and we'll pay him, you know, that type of running back salary and still only use him a third to a half of the time"?

Can I say both things can be true? I mean, everybody on this panel has had multiple conversations with players who have played in the NFL, listening to what happens behind the scenes on the practice field.

It, it doesn't take long, right? Once you get into camp, once you start play- like, it doesn't take by week six for the NFL coach to figure out if this guy's good or this guy's going to be a player or have a bigger role or a smaller role.

Like, you know pretty quickly what you got in somebody very early on.

And I, I'm trying to think back to the summer.

Were there tea leaves that we were just ignoring and missing that they were using multiple backs in camp, that he wasn't going to be this workhorse? Watching the flow of the game, y'all, it wasn't like they gotten blown out and they take him off the field.

Alvin Kamara was on the field early down situations, third down situations.

Oh, no

Mm-hmm.

Not to that degree.

So they finally go get a proper bell cow and people still a little hesitant.

They started out that game last night, what'd they give him, six, seven straight rush attempts? You talk about looking like an absolute stud out there.

Kenneth Walker, 191 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns, on a mere 26 touches, right? Out-gaining the entire doggone Denver offense by himself.

Before garbage time he played 77% of the snaps, 85% of the backfield opportunities, handled early down work, passing down work, short down work, red zone work.

I go to work.

Yeah, not great.

And Ray, I'm not gonna be able to capture your audio on here, just letting you know, um-

No, I just, I was just gonna tell you one thing I wanted you to talk about before I, before I got outta here.

Um, and I don't think anybody's really talking about it, but hit on the Commanders, man, with Antonio Williams and McLaurin and Diggs.

Hit on them.

Hit on the Commanders, too.

I know you haven't gone back and rewatched the tape or any of that stuff, but how the heck does Cole Kmet, who was drafted the highest of any of these pass catchers, end up with nothing?

I, I, I honestly have nothing for you, Matt.

I, I've got nothing for you.

It was very obvious at the beginning of that game that Cole Kmet was going to be a part of the offense.

Whether you like it or not, he's on the field.

They were motioning him out of the backfield.

They were motioning him into the slot.

Overall, first look at this Dolphins offense, what was your takeaway?

I know you haven't gone back and re-watched the tape or any of that stuff, but how the heck does Cole Kmet, who was drafted the highest of any of these pass catchers, end up with nothing?

I, I, I honestly have nothing for you, man.

I, I've got nothing for you.

It was very obvious at the beginning of that game that Cole Kmet was going to be a part of the offense.

Whether you like it or not, he's on the field.

They were motioning him out of the back field.

They were motioning him into the slot.

Overall, first look at this Dolphins offense, what was your takeaway?

Ray, you're up, buddy.

Yeah, and as, as we've talked about throughout the whole damn off-season, the best Bears value is the one who takes Romo Dunse last.

So whoever gets Romo Dunse absolutely gets the best value of all of them.

I mean, y'all talking about touchdowns, you're talking about yards.

You want consolidated offense.

Best damn offense in the league is probably Detroit Lions, and nobody wants Jamison Williams? Yeah, gi- give me a guy who can flip the math in one play.

I, I will gladly take Jamison Williams right here at the, uh, the back of the fourth round.

Uh, Ray Garman, you're up.

Ray Garvin, your next breakout candidate is...

Oh, we are traveling down to the 305, baby.

We are traveling down to Miami.

Talk about a late round quarterback that can produce some big time upside, and that's what we're talking about, cost relative to production.

Malik Willis.

Ah, Ray, y- you're talking about Tetairoa McMillan.

He's coming off the board at, at 40, and Hampton at 19.

[laughs]

Talk to me about Tyson, his talent and what your expectations are for him this season.

I mean, on the field, he's a dog.

When he's playing, he can run everything.

He's good after the catch.

He's good in the red zone.

He can create separation.

Very fun player.

We can talk about all the names, but is Stribling a player that people in deeper leagues should be drafting anyway, just because it seems like he's ingratiating himself into this offense very quickly?

Too high on Jaylen Waddle? How are, how are you feeling about this one?

No, I feel really good, man.

I, I feel really good.

And, and when I'm looking at usage, one of the things that I really...

A lot of times you see people, you know, put out a projection, and then there's a static number, right? He's gonna average 15 points per game, 13 points per game.

You can look at historical usage and what a wide receiver does, what the team asks them to do, and you can develop a range.

And I really like looking at a range, a range of outcome for a player like Jaylen Waddle.

Yeah.

[laughs]

I'm smiling 'cause I'm buying P-Wash. I'm buying P-Wash. They're saying all the right things, but more importantly, it sounds like Parker Washington is doing all the right things for Jacksonville in practice.

The, all, all we can react to, Matt, are the clips and the information that's presented to us.

And every time I see something about Parker Washington, it's how good he practiced, how, how many catches he came down with, how many touchdowns he scored, how the coach gushes about him, the quarterback gushes about him.

And then you see what he did down that back stretch.

Uh, the Jacksonville, they think they're slick.

If you didn't see the video that they put out, I believe it was Friday or Saturday, Matt.

Yeah

Yeah.

But dammit, we nailed this one.

I mean, [laughs] the, the, you and I were all over Pickens and the environmental change and the scheme change and the offense, and it paid off in a big way.

And I know CeeDee Lamb went down and o- opened up the door for some more opportunity.

Uh, uh, Pickens is fantastic.

Fantastic.

73 receiving first downs last year.

Uh, so let's go into the fifth round, and you've got a receiver here to highlight, Ray Garvin.

Yeah

... projected as a lower stat line than the other two, but the other two, like, unequivocally profile as their team's number one option.

I think we can do a whole damn show on Chicago and the priority and pecking order inside of that receiving game, whether it's Odunze, is it Loveland, is it Burden? I think we could do a whole show on that.

Back field, the quarterback.

When you look at Egbuka, this is...

Again, we just talked about it with McMillan, and I know he was a top 10 pick and Egbuka was picked in the 20s, but there was a clear plan for him to be a focal point of this offense.

And, uh, they let Mike Evans walk, or Mike Evans walked out the door.

Can he put it together this year and give us a top 15 to 20 season, or are you just passing?

Or is it 15?

I, I, I'll say this.

I, I, what I'm, what I'm curious to see is how much of last season's outcomes actually impact startup position, right? Jayden Daniels injured.

He's comes off the board as QB three.

Here, Jeremiah Love, rookie off the board at pick eight.

Two tight ends off the board.

I'll just say, picking at the back half, I'm pretty happy with the way this [laughs] has kinda started out right now.

He's, he's kinda like Lawrence in that, in that way, that Lawrence has had a couple seasons where he's been banged up and, and disappointed for fantasy, and Love's in a similar breath to some extent.

So talk to me about what you see from Elijah Surratt as a draft prospect.

I mean, he was the guy coming into the season.

Nobody was clamoring for Omar Cooper Jr. to be the first wide receiver off of the board from Indiana.

It was Elijah Surratt.

Everybody was expecting that, and he had a really good season.

65, 830, 15 touchdowns, 62 to 10, big frame, hand size is good, production is solid.

You know, one of the cool things that, you know, going through each one of his games this year, in college football the accumulation of stats starts from week one and it technically finishes throughout the playoffs, so all of that stuff is included.

Whoo.