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Michael Lukich

Michael Lukich

Analytics executive and author; Executive Director of Analytics at Hudson Rouge with 20+ years in marketing analytics, data strategy, and consulting across Accenture, Booz Allen Hamilton, and other firms; author of The Stoic Systems Thinker and systems thinking educator.

Aug 16, 2026

5:32
What did you mean by that? Well,
5:34
I mean, I think any poker player will will will recognize just, you know, if you if you've looked at any, you know, Monte Carlo simulation or if you've seen kind of the, you know, hand histories over time, or just a player's graph over time, if you're an online player, you can have a particular win rate.
5:58
And this is the point I tried to make.
6:00
This is an essay I wrote recently.
6:01
But you can have a win rate that's a positive win rate.
6:05
But if you're playing a game like poker, and I use poker as an example here, we all know that variance can be a pretty big factor in that.
6:14
And, you know, despite having a really good win rate, we are in the short term, you know, at the mercy of variance and at the mercy of luck.

12 MINS LATER

17:57
Can you recapitulate some of it for us?
10:38
So, you know, it is, I understand it is a struggle.
10:41
It's really hard to see a system when you are in the weeds itself.
10:46
You have to oftentimes kind of rise above, right? And, you know, I go back to this is where the Stoic philosophy, I think, comes in and is really helpful because I think back to stuff like this often.
10:55
You know, Marcus Aurelius would talk about in meditations how he would love to kind of think about how he would see the world from the stars and look down on it from above.
11:04
And if you don't have that perspective, kind of looking down on things from above, it's hard to... it's hard to make decisions and kind of, you know, when you don't necessarily see that whole map.
11:14
I think another example that this is, you know, kind of when I think back to the failures, And this is kind of more of a marketing specific example.
11:22
But I think about this a lot of how the marketing industry has evolved over the years.

6 MINS LATER

17:36
But is there anything you would say goes in that direction?

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