Can you talk a little bit about where you think we got it right, where you think we got it wrong?

Yeah, another great question.

You know, as I said, I worked on Capitol Hill, so I was still working as a Senate staffer when the Foreign Relations Committee that I worked on passed the authorization for the use of military force.

I eventually worked for the Senate majority leader.

We went through all the intelligence protocols.

So I had a front seat, if not.

partly on the field when we went through all that, I would say a few things come to mind.

How is it doing presently in terms of its engagement with the private sector to ensure that the United States continues to be at the cutting edge of those security capabilities? Yeah, look, this

I just wonder, the conflagration of Ukraine and Hormuz, what do you think the total aggregate impact is on some of these, at least distillates?

Well, look, from your perspective with the oil markets, it's problematic because we see less supply on the market, right? Because of Ukrainian long-range attacks against Russian refineries, Russian supply depots, et cetera, et cetera.

And at the same time, of course, the United States continues to want to properly per pressure on our European allies as well to stop buying Russian oil.

So I think from a market perspective, that still exists out there.

I think politically, Putin is not yet prepared to give in, despite the fact that he's losing, what, maybe 20,000, 30,000 soldiers a month.

His economy continues to slowly crater, and there's some political pressure building up.

But I don't think we're at the point yet now where either side's going to, or at least the Russian side's going to come to the table.

When you say, ultimately, the Trump administration is doing the right thing to bring them to the table to make a deal, what does a deal even look like at this point? And what are we talking, weeks, months? What's your best guess?

I mean, the president told the world just a few days ago that the Strait of Hormuz was about to be completely open within, within 24 hours, and the Iranians are now saying it will never be open unless America meets a long list of demands.

Right.

Yes, they put forward this agreement, Jonathan.

Apparently, they had been talking, uh, for a week or so with Oman about opening up a northern route into the Gulf and a southern route out of the Gulf, uh, along Oman, that they both would control or administer.

Unclear what that means, but now we know that, uh, that, that, uh, while that agreement sits on a precipice, they have put forward demands of the United States, which frankly are ri- ridiculous and should be rejected out of hand.

Uh, demands such as the withdrawal of all US forces from the region, um, uh, reimbursement for the costs of, of the war, um, the, the fact that we would, um, we would end our blockade, we would end sanctions.

So it's, it's gone beyond the pale.

And, and how serious is the shortage of munitions that we're now, uh, hearing about? It seems like, you know, almost a desperate situation in terms of shortage, especially of anti-missile defense systems like the Patriot.

Mm-hmm.

Other presidents have close political friends they've been with for years.

I, I'd say in the first administration, uh, he chose more traditional cabinet members, if you will.

And I think to your point, I, I think he kept an open ear to us.

I valued that from the president.

He was always available with a phone call going in either direction.

Um, uh, he, he would take in your input.

Are you, w- what is your position on this, and are you confident that if the bill goes through as is and the White House decides to reject- um, these, this proposal that was submitted to, to them, uh, that a, a DOJ would actually apply this rule to the president's own family?

and Iran does its thing? I mean, how does this kind of continue from here?

Sure.

Well, look, I think first and foremost for your viewers, for the markets, it means that the Strait is going to continue to remain closed or partially open.

We know that the International Maritime Organization issued a statement in the last 24 hours telling ships to not cross because of the continued uncertainty.

So I think this continues for some degree of time until one side blanks or something else falls.

Again, I think President Trump is more inclined to tolerate this to a point But the Iranians really want to come out of this asserting control of the Strait of Hormuz.

We know from reporting that they apparently are talking to other capitals around the world about getting some type of okay, some nod of approval for asserting control, which, by the way, is in the MOU that they have claimed that they would administer the Strait along with Qatar, I'm sorry, along with Oman after the 60 days.

mark do you see the the midterms then i mean they're still almost four months away it's sort of a a an important moment that we want to try and maintain this area of stasis between nazis fire and not all-out war until then and then things might change

So the first question to you is what did you truly come to understand through the process of writing 700 informative and insightful pages?

Well, let me begin with the genesis of the book.

And I would say, you know, I never had any ambition to write a book while I was in office.

It wasn't until I left in late 2020 that I was approached by a publishing group to do such a thing.

And I thought about it and I know that, you know, my predecessors had written books and I had actually read them.

Bob Gates did a very good book.

called duty of all things.

you mentioned sports you're spending a lot of time in business we're seeing uh examples of military leaders uh increasingly um finding themselves in business Tell me about sports, business, and military, what they each teach each other, and what can the private sector truly leverage from the kinds of things that you learn first and foremost by climbing the ranks as you did in the U.S. military?

Were you surprised on the little conflagration here and the fact that it didn't come from Hezbollah Lebanon?

Yeah, not surprised.

We spoke a couple weeks ago.

I said that, you know, Lebanon would be the spoiler.

It still will be the spoiler.

But that it only took 12 days for us to end up in a four days worth of tit for tats with regard to kinetic strikes.

So not surprised.

I don't understand.

Well, I, I don't

don'tI don't believe so.

I, uh, you, you know, you look at many of the players on the team that are experienced, uh, uh, i- in foreign policy for some time, I, I don't think they trust the Iranians.

Nobody trusts the Iranians.

Uh, I, I think they put a deal on the table.

I think, uh, as the vice president said, Let- let's give it a shot and see if it works.

And i- in that regard, I'd say, yeah, there's a lot more of this football game to play out.

And it, and this is a quote, "will maintain the status quo of Iran's nuclear program pending further negotiations." So what did the US get out of this war that it didn't already have before it began?

addressedLike what? What, uh, the fact that they don't have a nuclear deal, I assume, is one big one.

Yeah, look, I think on the near term, clearly, uh, the Israelis are not happy about this.

Um, and, and it puts, uh, Bibi Netanyahu in a really tight box with regard to what he does.

Then the question related to that, of course, is will Hezbollah honor the agreement as well? And there's been no discussion about whether Israel has to pull out from Lebanon, which I doubt they will do.

Secondly, you have some critics right now saying, "Well, look, if the deal is so good, why not release the text?" So I think people would, will be pushing to learn more about it over the next coming days before it is signed on Friday.

And part and parcel, that is, we're hearing, uh, different reports.

So President Trump has said there will be no tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz.

Obviously, there was regime change, but not of the type that I think was hoped for.

Let's talk about how much control the president has over Israel at the moment, given the events of the weekend.

Well, he does have some control over Israel with regard to, you know, his relationship through Bibi Netanyahu.

But keep in mind, the political dyna- dynamics in Israel and, and the United States are quite different.

Both leaders have elections coming up in the fall.

Uh, Netanyahu directly, the Knesset's being, uh, has an election.

But he is, uh, fighting a war in which, uh, overall, overwhelming numbers, 60 to 70% of the Israeli people at least, support the conflict, certainly against, uh, Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also against Iran.

And the president's, President Trump's numbers are flipped.

How does this play out in your mind, and what kind of preparation have we made for this enduring through the summer?

I, I, I'd like, I'd love to get your, uh, insight on this, I guess, acknowledgement by the president of these strained, can we call them strained relations or at least strategic, uh, disagreements with the, uh, Israeli prime minister now sort of out in the open?

Yeah, I think so.

Look, it's, it's, to me it's starting to feel like this may be a pivot point, and that's why I think Sara's interview with, uh, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be so important to hear what he has to say because, look-Trump and Netanyahu began this war very aligned, very coordinated, and here we are from what was spoken about being a four to six-week war is now looking more like a four to six-month war at a minimum.

And so at this four-month point, we know that the interests and, and the goals of Israel and Netanyahu's, um, a- a- and Netanyahu versus Trump and the United States are very different.

I mean, as I said the other day, Israel sees, um, Iran and Hezbollah as existential threats.

Uh, this phase of the conflict for me goes back to October 7th, 2023.

Again, remember when Hamas, sponsored by Iran, went into Israel and murdered over 1,200 Israelis.

Uh, in his words, "They're playing with fire." Your thoughts?

So, so what does this mean, that that deal has broken down?

down?Yeah, uh, for the foreseeable future it's broken down.

Uh, clearly the, both sides are at odds, and the so-called ceasefire has seen multiple tits for tats over the past few days, right? This morning we, we learned that Kuwait was hit by ballistic missiles.

So I think this goes on for a while.

Clearly, you know, we know that the IRGC, the Islamic Re- uh, Revolutionary Guard Corps, is in charge in this country, and they're drawing a very hard line.

They feel emboldened by their position right now in this conflict.

So if you're talking to investors who are wondering, "How does this end, and when does the strait open?" what do you say?

You know, first of all, I'd say what was spoken about as being a four to six-week conflict now looks to at least be a four to six-month conflict.

Do you think this visit by the foreign minister to Beijing or the fact that the summit is a week from tomorrow with Xi and Trump is material?

Yes.

I- I'm glad you brought that up, because I was gonna bring it up.

Look, uh, y- you're right.

The foreign minister was there this week.

Uh, he made very clear, first of all, I think importantly, that, um, um, the control, Iranian control of the strait is not a concession to negotiations, that it's gonna be part of the negotiations.

And he also has made, they, the Iranians, have made clear, because they just put out this week, today in fact, new rules on compliance, uh, for ships passing through the strait.

I'm, I'm asking because, I mean, the aim of the war was to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, right? And I, I'm just trying to gauge how successful it is, and if they do agree to some sort of plan, whether we've accomplished the goal.

What can happen now? What can the US do to exert additional pressure, and through what means, to get Iran to come to the table and achieve the other objectives?

Yeah, it's a good question.

First of all, you know, while the decapitation of the regime was successful, what it did was change the leadership.

And rather than put in a more pragmatic, uh, group of people, it put in a more hardline group of people, and of course, the IRGC has asserted more control.

So now we have a regime that's seems seemingly more willing to dig in, although the, the claims that there are fractures within the government right now tend to be true.

But I'm, uh, I, I suspect they'll kind of wrap that up pretty quick.

Um, my, my sense again is that at this point, uh, each side is going to stick to its positions with regard to the blockade to control the strait, and we'll see who breaks first under economic pressure.

From your vantage point with the experience you have, what is guiding you and the way you're thinking about the trajectory of things?

Will this move actually force them to quickly cut a peace deal with the U.S.?

Well, Wolf, I think it'll take time to see.

We know that some experts have estimated that cutting off the Iranian ships going in and out of their ports hurts them to the tune of about $430 million a day because they ship out between 1.5 and 2 million barrels of oil a day and other energy supplies.

So it will take some time for that to clamp down to have an effect.

And what's interesting this morning is Iran threatened to retaliate back by shutting down further, not just the Strait, but the Gulf of Oman and, importantly, the Red Sea.

And, of course, if they do that, if they up the ante there, that will cut off another 10, 12, 15 percent of commercial trade globally, which would have a further impact on the global economy.

Secretary, are you confident the US can get a deal now that is better than the deal Trump withdrew from, the Obama deal?

Well, first of all, we know there's a Pakistani team in Tehran right now delivering a message from Washington if reporting is correct.

You know, a typical question is what's the market gonna be down on the day that China makes a move on Taiwan? I'm just curious as to how you think about what you just discussed in the larger context.

Look, it's our biggest strategic adversary in this century.

They're- it's one of only two countries that pose an exis- existential threat to us.

Uh, they've said that they wanna modernize their military by 2035 and push us out of the, at least the western Pacific by, uh, 2049, and, and I don't think we're focused enough on them.

Look, the, the other thing is what's not being reported right now is while we've been focused the last, what, seven weeks now on the war, [laughs] China's, is building up more islands in the South China Sea, islands designed to control the South China Sea.

So we're talking now about a, a, a country exercising control over trade and commerce in the Strait of Hormuz, and meanwhile, China's building and preparing the means to exercise that same type of control in the South China Sea.

And that's where frankly 80% of commercial trade passes through, that part of the world.

So just, but just to finish where we started on this blockade, which has, which has apparently begun this hour, w- what does it mean for, I mean, the, the potential of opening the strait at some point, which is what ultimately needs to happen to get energy prices down, things moving again, um, and weaken Iran's leverage on being able to block that?

What do you think about those odds? Does that seem realistic? In other words, it's, it's not going in the way of a ceasefire.

Yeah, I, I don't see a ceasefire happening either.

I just think the sides are too far apart, and each is gonna calculate, of course, how much they want this, want the cease or need the ceasefire in order to see who blinks first.

But, uh, odds of a ground invasion at 80% I think is, uh, is, is way too high.

And then again, it depends on how you classify it.

I mean, could the United States military conduct some raids, which is basically an attack with a planned withdrawal, where they go in, they clear out some, um, missile sites in some of those islands in the strait, or they go after some of the ships that are tucked away in caves to destroy them and destroy some things? Yeah, that's, that's possible, I think under 50%, because I think once you start committing ground troops, even if they are there for a raid, then you risk further, um, further casualties, and thus further involvement.

Even, you know, deploying, uh, the troops to rescue the downed airman was absolutely the right thing to do, but that was fraught with a lot of risk, putting those many soldiers and service members inside the country.

Secretary, where do you come down in terms of the rules of engagement vis-a-vis the, the bombing of bridges and, uh, you know, uh, uh, electricity infrastructure, not to mention the impact potentially in the hearts and minds of a population I think we still hope certainly at some point might be able to rise up and, and overthrow the current regime?

Mm-hmm

... we have now the other, uh, officer is out there somewhere, uh, uh, we assume hiding, uh, trying to escape and evade from the Iranian, uh, guards who are trying to chase him or, or her down and capture him.

Um, obviously, it's significant that a- an American aircraft was shot down in light of what the president said the other night with regard to, uh, how devastated or what- whatever other verb he used to describe their air defenses.

But clearly they cl- they have some capability still, and not just with air defense, but with ballistic missiles and drones and other things that we've heard about here in the last 24, 48 hours.

Um, so of course our, our thoughts and prayers are with this airman who's out there.

And, um, it's w- it's very important that we find, uh, that pilot, um, and, and re- retrieve, uh, re- retrieve them because obviously if the Iranians get that person, it could be a significant political chip in this conflict.

Does this moment, could this moment complicate any diplomatic negotiations if there are any in fact happening?

I'd say two things.

And this is always hard with people that have these crazy lives, right? But can you try and summarize what you've been up to the last couple of decades and your life achievements?

We'll go back a few decades.

I grew up south of Pittsburgh, a small coal mining town.

And at age 18 left and went to West Point.

And I spent four years at West Point graduating in 1986.

I commissioned as an infantry officer and then went through all the various schools and programs, parachute airborne training, ranger training, pathfinder training.

Found myself in the 101st Airborne Division as my first assignment as a platoon leader.

So what makes a good leader under high pressure situations?

Um, what is your view of the war as to when it can conclude today versus, say, five weeks ago when it started?

started?Well, the United States continues to make great progress in terms of achieving its, uh, military objectives, and those have been cited several times with regard to destroying the Navy, destroying the Air Force, ballistic and, and drone capabilities and production.

All those things we're making progress, but of course, the, the war will be resolved at the political level.

And at this point, it looks between negotiations, uh, of both sides.

Now, the United States has put forward a, a 15-point plan, uh, which Iran has rejected, and Iran has put forward a five-point plan, which the United States has objected, uh, objected to.

And if you look at them, both are place extreme demands on the other party.

So I guess we're gonna see what, what happens come April 6th, uh, whether one side cedes a little bit, yields, whether Iran opens up the Strait of Hormuz.

How difficult do you think that would be? I mean, extracting a thousand pounds of uranium can't be easy.

H- how do you think that changes the calculus?

Well, first of all, my condolences go out to the, uh, the, the, the friends and families of those crew members, uh, and, and not just them of course, but the previous seven who have been killed in this conflict, giving us a total of, uh, well, I guess 13 now.

So, um, it's tragic.

Uh, what that means, I think, of course, is Y- Europeans who have not weighed heavily into this conflict to begin with, and we saw some movement, uh, of sending ships and whatnot, now they're talking about backpedaling some.

Uh, it, it's hard to see how that reads, but it is interesting that there is, that they're talking about negotiations, and is there a negotiated way out of this? I think eventually there will be a negotiated way forward, and then the question is, it gets back to my, the first statement I made, is how does this end? Uh, and, and that dictates when this ends in some ways.

And will it be through a negotiated settlement which, where one side or other can claim victory legitimately? And this is, this is tough, right? Because for the Iranians, their view is probably, as long as they survive with the current regime intact, they're gonna claim victory.

And, um, uh, we and the Israelis will have to make an- another claim.

So what does a win for America look like?

Yeah.

And we can go, [laughs] you know, year by year and talk about Americans attacked and diplomats killed and whatnot.

So look, this is an evil regime.

They've sponsored terrorism throughout the, certainly the region for years, from Hezbollah in Le- Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis now in Yemen, Iraqi militias.

They propped up, uh, the, the, uh, notorious Assad regime in Syria that, that, that used chemical weapons against its own people.

So these are not good guys, and they spent billions and billions of dollars over the years, not just stirring the pot in the Middle East, but then at repressing their own people.

And it was just last mon- or two months ago now in January when the Iranian people came out, fed up once again with the social repression, with the economic hardships, with w- what is a, a corrupt theocracy, and protested, and at least 7,000 were killed in the streets, men, women, children.

What's the end goal in all of this, in your estimation?

Do you agree with, uh, the decision to go to war?

Well, good morning.

And, uh, the answer is yes, I think it was the right decision to go.

I think it's been, uh, very successful so far over, what, 2,000 sorties.

Uh, and it now appears, at least General Milley said this morning, that the United States and, uh, Israel have air superiority over Iran, which means they can pretty much do whatever they want with some concern.

Um, so I, I think that is ongoing.

We obviously see that they're taking down ballistic missiles, more importantly the mis- missile launchers.

What are your expectations though for the, the longer term goal one would hope that, that there would be significant regime change that would change the entire orientation of the country itself?

Do you think we could see Iran take that same approach this time around?

Yeah, I think what they have to do is calibrate this so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel like they've satisfied the military, they've struck back, tell the im- the Iranian people they've struck back, but not so much that, uh, President Trump, uh, really ups the ante, climbs that escalation ladder, and really, um, uh, hits them back fairly hard.

Within hours of the missile strikes at Al Assad, uh, we had Iranians on the phone privately s- reaching out to us saying they were done, they had no more, they wanted to s- stop fighting, et cetera.

And, uh, that was, of course, uh, long before we knew that, uh, uh, American service members suff- suffered concussions and TBI.

But nonetheless, uh, they're, they'll do a lot of back chilling because they, look, they can't go much further.

This is a, they're being dismantled, their leadership, uh, certainly the military side is being taken apart, their nuclear sites have been, um, have been pummeled.

And so the question is, how long, how much longer can they go on?

As we think about the Strait of Hormuz, can you just share with us what you learned about the best way to provide a deterrent and to prevent the destruction of those waterways?