Mariameno Kapa-Kingi

Now, in my view, Te Tai Tokerau is too close to call.

Hohana Linden, Willow Jean, Prime, Aparama Edwards, and Mariameno Kapakingi, the current MP.

It's the least predictable electorate in the whole country, I reckon.

The vote splitting there will be chaotic.

So that was me going, we're going to leave it there.

That's the 30 seconds at the end.

Mariameno Kapakingi was last, and Aparahama then spoke up.

Now, these two don't get on.

Now, in my view, Te Tai Tokerau is too close to call.

Hohana Linden, Willow Jean, Prime, Aparama Edwards, and Mariameno Kapakingi, the current MP.

It's the least predictable electorate in the whole country, I reckon.

The vote splitting there will be chaotic.

Yeah, so shall we start with Mount Albert? I think it's one of the, if not the most talked about electorate.

So, Mount Albert, the incumbent is Helen White, Labour Party.

She won by only 18 votes at the last election.

So you sometimes think that your votes doesn't count.

I've actually lived in this electorate before and voted for some of the candidates we're about to speak to.

Great place to be, shout out Auckland Central.

We've got Chloe Swarbrick, the incumbent, Green Party.

Candice Kinzer for National.

A recent Whakaata Māori courier poll shows Hohana Linden has a chance of making history by becoming the first Green candidate to win a Māori seat.

Behind her, Labour's Willow-Jean Prime and Aperahama Edwards of Te Pāti Māori are neck and neck, followed by incumbent Independent MP Mariameno Kapakingi.

And then even the incumbent, Maria Mino, with her new party and all that, they're not faring too well in Te Tai Tokerau because Maria Mino Kapakingi, she's currently on 12% of the vote.

Even knowing when we did ask Te Tai Tokerau voters on how they felt like Mariameno did, they all gave her really good approval ratings, ranking with 40% saying she did a good job and only a small 14% saying she did a poor job.

So she obviously has the support, but not the votes.

and all that.

um now the other thing i was going to mention about these uh these probabilities is takuta has said i think today he will definitely won't go with national and as i asked her a couple of weeks ago marimeno kapakingi there is a probability that one person could be the balance of power I think the polls are leaning Labour is what I've seen in the press about Northland.

But should Maria Meno be there and should she get 1.2 percent and bring one person with her, hence the reason for her starting a party, you might find out that those guys who were expelled from Te Pāti Māori theoretically could also end up being the balance of power.

So what we're being told, guys, is The current coalition, those three parties, have a 30% chance of forming government right now.

This is what the polls are saying.

Maybe some will go across to Labour, but I think the Greens are ultimately benefiting in the race.

It still seems to me, though, the four seats that are safe, Rawiri, Hana, Debbie, Orini, I'm sure the Māori Party are encouraged by the way that they are still being received in their electorates, but there's a fascinating race up in the north for Te Tai Tokerau and I had a chat last week at the back end with Maria Meno who sort of resurfaced after all of that drama but with her mana intact and she is campaigning for very localised answers.

You know sometimes I get the feeling that our Māori electorate MPs are more distracted by national Māori matters than they are about their own electorates and she's come out fair and square in the middle, Catherine, saying that it's about our own communities, even down to building raised gardens in the households of the north so that we can have more food security.

Interestingly, when I spoke with Tamahere recently as well, he said that Te Pāti Māori aren't knocking on doors, Catherine, anymore.

Āperehama Edwards, the Party Maori, 19%.

Um, Te Tai Tokerau Party, Mariameno Kapakingi on 11%.

Maki Herbert, uh, f-

[laughs]