Lulism

And he kind of competes with the leftism of Vargas in the beginning of his career, eventually, you know, winning the race.

And now we have Lulismo, right? Rizu doesn't have Peronism like Argentina, but it could have had if Lula had failed against Vargas' political heirs in the 80s and the 90s.

But Lula could never claim nationalism in the same way Vargas could.

And then Bolsonaro comes with the yellow jersey and the big Brazilian flag with the football player Neymar endorsing him.

But it's going to be tough because you have to convince people who didn't feel like it was worth it the first time to come around this second time.

Sure, maybe you can make the case now it's either Lulismo or fascismo, and maybe that's enough to convince three million people to come out and vote for you.

But maybe – but I think that is an uphill battle.

Whenever you have to kind of resign yourself to see if you can win – and this is true of Canada, of the United States, of Mexico, Brazil, that you're depending on trying to convince the people who didn't come out – It's an uphill battle, and I don't really feel very optimistic about it.

So, uh, there is appetite for a third way.

The problem is that, uh, there is nobody that is charismatic, that does the grassroots, uh, job that, uh, both Lulism and Bolsonarism have done throughout the years.

So, uh, th- there is a lot of polarization in Brazil, but I think the numbers suggest a much bigger divide than what we actually see here in Brazil.

And just briefly, Flavio Bolsonaro says if he wins, he'll pardon his father and all those involved in the coup plot following, uh, President Lula's victory in 2022.

voters? I divide in five groups.

The Lulistas, which is around 22%.

The left voters who do not like to be attached to Lula, 13%.

The independents, around 30%.

the right-wing voters who does not like to be called Bolsonaristas, we're talking about 22%, and then the Bolsonaristas, the 13%, right? Although these five groups divide themselves and they have different perspectives in terms of values, political behavior, in the latest Quest runoff simulation, Lula gets about 96% among his voters on political camp, the Lulistas and the leftists, Flavio gets almost all Bolsonaro supporters and a very large majority of the non-Bolsonaro right voters.

So the election is decided outside those groups.

Right now, Flavio has a numerical advantage among those independents, but this is still a remarkably, I would say, open group.