Mm.

And so there's all these voters that, like, aren't the biggest Sherrod Brown fans or Democrat fans that are like- I'd rather vote for the Republican, but John Husted is all in on this.

Because Husted made the unfortunate mistake, like six years ago when he was lieutenant governor, to be all in on cutting red ribbons across the state on data centers.

Mm-hmm

... or Minnesota.

Uh, but, like, the problem for Democrats here, and it's also their strength in the other direction, is all these races are so close because they're over-performing so much in traditionally Republican areas, which means there's a chance for something truly historic and massive.

But they also could be in a scenario where they do so much better nationally, but it doesn't get them as much.

Uh, your take on that?

Well, listen, we love Senator Ricketts and I love my predecessor, Michael Whatley.

He still has a path.

We're helping him in other ways.

But listen, at the end of the day, we have 29 days to go.

As a party and, you know, as the collective, we have to make decisions and where, where can we cobble together the seats that we need? Whatley's still in the mix, but at the end of the day, we have to maintain the majority because if we don't, the Democrats are going to fundamentally change this country.

We have to win.

Yeah

Which of the races are we looking out for, apart from, as well as the ones you just mentioned for us?

Yeah, actually, we will dive into those races.

But real quick, I want to say, the map is the biggest I have ever seen.

And this is an old school era on that, honestly.

I think this is just a theory and time will tell if I'm proven right or wrong.

I'm kind of wondering if we're starting to see depolarization in America.

Every year we're seeing voters get more partisan.

Is there anywhere where they are in potentially in sight of maybe losing a seat? I think they're taking

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm

... unless it ends up being a way smaller wave than we think.

But the real question is, um, if this ends up being huge, if you put a little money into some of these places, it might make the difference between, oh, you actually had a chance because maybe there's a surge in Black turnout, or maybe this is the year where white voters are a little less polarized in Mississippi due to economic concerns.

And so I wouldn't look at it as just Mississippi.

It's looking at all of these types of races, Mississippi, South Carolina, et cetera, um, even though I think South Carolina's a lot more likely.

Um, combined, maybe one of them crosses the line.

Mm-hmm.

Like, A, it's evangelical, and that's a huge part of it, like much higher percentage of evangelicals here than most of the country, but that doesn't explain all of it, right? There's a reason that Cindy Hyde-Smith is talking a lot about transgender issues.

Right.

It is a huge sign that this race is competitive, but, like, it shouldn't be, um, because this is a state that I think Trump won by, like, close to 30%.

Now, in the same year, Osborne only lost by 7%, and in theory, this political environment should be more than seven points worse for Republicans.

That would only be, like, a 5.5 edge in the national popular vote for House races for Democrats for that to happen.

So, uh, he's certainly got a chance, but it is really hard to over-perform the rest of your party by those types of numbers.

Uh, it becomes a little more possible when you look at the fact that throughout the Midwest, and this time around, we're not talking about just the Midwest of Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which isn't Midwest, but gets thrown around like it is.

Wow.

You know, we're, we're talking about 40 years here, so on paper, it would be bigger, um, than 2006.

But here's the big question hanging over the Democratic Party: Who is actually winning over voters when the establishment floods the race with cash?

And Michigan really is the marquee contest here.

Abdul El-Sayed versus Haley Stevens.

Stevens has benefited from a torrent of spending, roughly eighty million dollars poured into the race overall.

But the momentum has shifted hard toward El-Sayed.

The numbers are striking.

He's gained twenty percent in the polls, compared with Stevens' ten percent gain.

Her response to a cancel Thanksgiving tweet was awkward, but anti-Republican sentiment may be strong enough to cushion controversy.

Mm.

Um, Ciattarelli, even though he's been linking with Trump a lot more this time, is a lot more moderate and he's a really good campaigner.

It's why he managed to do so well last time, um, and over-perform expectations.

So, uh, Ciattarelli's probably putting a race in play, though, if a weaker Republican, especially one that might have been more closely linked to Donald Trump's brand, it might not be in play at all.

Mm-hmm.

Um, and I think there's something to watch in the future, right? Uh, the storyline, which is justifiably so, is that Donald Trump supporters are gonna stick with him no matter what.

But there's a big slice of his voters when you ask them, like, not just h- "Do you approve or disapprove?" but, "Do you strongly or somewhat approve?" There's a huge slice, over 20%, that say they somewhat approve.

So there's some soft support that if the economy really starts to struggle, they might actually abandon him.