Kristalina Georgieva

[laughs] Right, uh, it is the end of the IMF World Bank meetings in Bangkok, which saw the fund upgrade global growth.

And in the final few hours, a discussion between the Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, and the managing director, Kristalina Georgieva.

Lisa Abramowicz is in Bangkok.

Warsh has talked about a massive investment surge in the US, the AI boom, uh, striking given the investor anxiety that we've seen about, um, AI in recent days.

Second thing is a real questions about, uh, the two-sided risk of artificial intelligence, the idea that there is the risk of the debt overhang being particularly pernicious and maybe some of the influence of the actual investments not being as positive or as, uh, productive inducing, productivity inducing as people expect.

Uh, that's second.

The third, and this really was, uh, IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva's big message, the risk in debt right now is with developed markets, not developing markets, and that ultimately, uh, there is a fear that any kind of disruption in developed market bond markets could infect the rest of the bond universe beyond.

And, and that I think is really, uh, an underlying fear at a time where fiscal concerns are preeminent and supply shocks are ongoing.

Yeah, that's right.

Kevin Warsh, uh, sat down with IM- the IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, at the IMF World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok in the last few hours.

He wasn't giving away any clues about what the Fed might do at his next meeting, reiterating his opposition to the use of forward guidance for markets that he believes should be relying on interpreting data.

Um, he described the global picture as a common fight on prices and said that central banks make their own choices under their own mandates, but the result is a synchronous tightening in monetary policy in most places around the world.

And of course, if we want to keep high, uh, spending on defense as we want, as we have to, uh, I need credible source of, uh, income for, uh, for our budget.

Kristalina Georgieva talked specifically about this.

Winter is coming in the Northern Hemisphere.

Does Poland face higher energy prices this winter compounded by a supply shock in the Middle East?

Yeah.

So the IMF is a, a very mu-- I mean, I think the thing that Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, is pushing hard is get your house in order, basically.

I mean, the IMF generally is, acts as a sort of, uh- Moral advisor in, in financial terms to, to countries and sort of wags the finger and tells them to pull up their socks and so on.

And, um, I think the, I think the theme really is that developing countries have, have done quite a lot in, in that regard.

Yeah, that was at the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's MD, really emphasized the need for responsible development.

It's clear this isn't just a tech issue anymore.

It's a global economic one.

And the global institutions are saying the same thing louder.

This week in Bangkok, at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, called AI a slow-moving tsunami for the labor market.

Slow-moving tsunami is a vivid phrase, but I want to know if she backed it up with numbers, because I have heard a lot of dramatic metaphors about AI and jobs over the last few years, and most of them were just vibes.

She did.

We'll be meeting a couple more times this year, and that will be the crystallizing moment at which we're gonna look out the window.

What do we see? What's happening to output? What's happening to employment? What's happening to inflation? And in those intermeeting periods, especially occasions like this when Kristalina and I get to sit down without the, the cameras and the microphones, and I get to sit down with my G20 colleagues, I'm doing at least as much listening as I am talking.

[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to The Week Ahead on Nomura Podcasts.

I'm Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX Strategy here at Nomura in London, and today is Friday the 16th of October.

I remember in the crisis period of 2022 and 2023, the messaging was that keep holding the anchor on, with inflation i mean policy rate tightening this time around with the middle east crisis what has been the messaging to various central bank governors and i mean finance ministers in terms of the direction to go as far as you know policy rate decisions are concerned i know last year we did more than one thousand business point this year we've been very very consistent with decision to uphold the rate what has been the messaging coming from the fund And how are the central bank governors receiving this message, George?

I mean, today, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Guglielma, launched the Global Economic Policy or the Global Policy of the International Monetary Fund.

And her argument is that we are not out of the woods.

Keep your leg on the paddle.

The difference is the level of transaction.

Although theirs are small, but they are mighty, compared to the big banks who are going to big investment, especially going into the key sectors like mining, farming, agri-sector, and so that changes the whole dynamic.

But I believe that this challenge is going to be difficult going into the rest of the year for some of the banks, because if you hear some of the In the consent I've received from some of the managing directors of some of the banks, they said the Bank of Ghana itself needs to be reassessed.

the Bank of Ghana, it still needs to be reassessed.