Kivu

Otherwise, that will be a huge leap in the dark, which I don't believe someone of that level of political exposure and experience to make.

Avigwe, you were saying a moment ago that M23, as we know, I mean, their political, their influence has been largely sort of concentrated in the areas of the Kivus, right, the north and the south.

Kabila, by contrast, he has networks and connections and experience that extend beyond the east of the country.

So do you think this alliance then is going to possibly transform M23 from being this national insurgency, a regional insurgency rather, into a national political force?

So maybe this is an opportunity for Rwanda to take some distance and to make this more of a Congolese coalition.

This also could be a play at trying to bolster support outside of the Kivus, outside of some of the sort of traditional strongholds of the M23.

Kabila, his popularity has certainly waned in Katanga, but by no means is he not unpopular with everybody.

So he certainly could have some coalitions there.

I guess I was just going to add that while we're talking about this now due to what Damien said, where everyone is shocked by seeing a 6 million people in need decrease in a context like DRC, where we know conflict is, you know, extreme levels.

There's, you know, climatic, uh, hazards and severe flooding and, uh, uh, all sorts across not just the Ituri and Kivus.

Um, this is also a problem that predates 2025, 2026, um, in terms of defining people in need.

I'm just thinking about, uh, a few, even before that, maybe 2022, 2023, when, um, there was a lot of, uh, just from my own experience, um, working on Ukraine, just a lot of humanitarian funding being used for social protection and for things that perhaps now we may draw that line as that's, that's no longer humanitarian.

Ituri, up near the Ugandan border, holds seventy-five percent of all cases, but only thirty-nine percent of yesterday's.

The new infections are spreading across the other six provinces, from the Kivus up to the Ueles.

That's a wider map for tracers who are already falling behind.

From Logistics Cluster.

While the intelligence shows no direct imminent terror plots against US facilities in this area, the environmental threat level is elevated simply because you have overlapping heavily armed militias moving through a zone dealing with a highly contagious disease outbreak.

We will continue to monitor the Kivu and Ituri provinces closely.

But from the collapse of state authority in Central Africa, we turn our focus to the struggle for state independence in East Africa.

It is a necessary transition.

I would highlight three primary watch points.

Okay.

First, monitor the Jenga Tower in the Kivu provinces of the DRC.

Specifically, watch for any further coalition fighting in the Masisi and Uvira sectors that might push Rwandan or Burundian forces closer to a miscalculation.

It's, uh, it's a very authoritarian place.

On the larger format, it's extremely controversial, uh, because it's, it's the major supporter and, and influence of M23, which now occupies, uh, uh, much of the Kivus.

Uh, Goma Airport closed.

Bukavu Airport closed.

So I don't think it goes up.

But there's clearly a risk with everything that's going on in the Kivus right now between Rwanda and the DRC, unrest, um, and the geopolitical tensions between America and China in the region with China's outsize influence in the copper down in the south and the southeast of the DRC.

All of these things become strategic.

So it's probably the flashpoint.