Kinmen County

And now we have this exercise, which is for two days.

And they've announced the closure areas that are very, very close to Taiwan inside the contiguous zone, which is inside 24 nautical miles of the main island of Taiwan, five closure areas, in addition to other closure areas for the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu and a couple of other smaller islands right off the mainland.

So what we are seeing now is... another demonstration, and this is coming right after the inauguration of the new president of Taiwan, Lai, President Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party.

So what you have is a You know, basically, the Chinese are saying that President Lai's inauguration speech equated Taiwan as a nation and separated Taiwan and China as two distinct separate nations.

Let's talk about China.

A recent survey of the Chinese people found that 77% of them supported military action against Taiwan's outlying Kinmen and Matsu Islands if Taiwan officially declared independence.

About 24% supported a full-scale military attack, and in the same scenario, uh, 59% supported a, some sort of blockade of Taiwan.

Jared, so th- we were talking about this before the show.

So China almost certainly has their own polling of, of the situation.

If it does reflect the data above, I think China's most likely just to continue preparing itself for a quarantine, which is a law enforcement blockade, uh, or proper military blockade of Taiwan.

And China remains unlikely to militarily take Taiwan's outlying Kinmen or Matsu Islands, uh, independent of a broader campaign.

And the reason for that is that basically that would risk, it-- That would pro- pose too much of a risk for a successful unification of Taiwan, peaceful or otherwise.

The survey, conducted by the Carter Center and Emory University between April and June, found that while peaceful cross-strait relations are overwhelmingly preferred, a declaration of de jure independence by Taiwan would likely trigger a military response.

Preferred coercive actions included attacking Quemoy and Matsu Islands at seventy-seven percent, a naval blockade at fifty-nine percent, and economic sanctions at fifty-six percent.

Regarding the US, public sentiment remains low at thirty-two out of one hundred, with nearly three-quarters viewing America as a national security threat.

Notably, opposition to the use of force against Taiwan rose significantly after President Trump's Beijing visit.

At that time, the situation was similar to what it is today.

Congress then voted the President authority to employ the armed forces of the United States for the defense not only of Formosa but of related positions such as Quemoy and Matsu, if I believed their defense to be appropriate in assuring the defense of Formosa.

I might add that the mandate from the Congress was given by an almost unanimous bipartisan vote.

Today, the Chinese Communists announce repeatedly and officially that their military operations against Quemoy are preliminary to an attack on Formosa.

So it is clear that the Formosa Straits Resolution of 1955 applies to the present situation.

If the present bombardment and harassment of Quemoy should be converted into a major assault with which the local defenders could not cope, then we would be compelled to face precisely the situation that Congress visualized in 1955.

I have repeatedly sought to make clear opposition in this matter so that there would not be danger of Communist miscalculation.

The Secretary of State on September 4th made a statement to the same end.

But the interesting thing about this is outside of this wedding thing and the place where they're polling, soldiers are on extremely heightened alert.

Jinmen is just a few kilometers from the coast of the People's Republic of China, and the People's Liberation Army had spent the previous two weeks firing ballistic missiles into target zones near Taiwan.

Right.

So across the country, people voted in schools, community centers and temples.

So in 1992, constitutional amendments established that the president and the vice president would be elected by people in the Republic of China's so-called free area.

The free area of the Republic of China.

Taiwan, Penghu, Jinmen, and Mazu.

Of course, Green Island and Shaoliuqiu and...

That is the opinion of China expert Guo Jing.

An announcement to blockade Taiwan or seize part of Taiwan in the remote Kinmen or Matsu islands is low-cost internationally.

However, it is legally sufficient to flip on the mobilization law and take everything in China under state control.

Again.

That is the opinion of China expert Guo Jing.

An announcement to blockade Taiwan or seize part of Taiwan in the remote Kinmen or Matsu islands is low-cost internationally.

However, it is legally sufficient to flip on the mobilization law and take everything in China under state control.

Again.