Kelly criterion
66
MENTIONS
22
EPISODES
19
PODCASTS
Search complete. 66 mentions across 22 episodes found for "Kelly criterion".
Oct 11, 2026
Matt ZeiglerHOST
It had me thinking a lot.
Matt ZeiglerHOST
I did this wonderful episode with Chris Abdel-Messiah where we basically worked through the math of the Kelly Criterion.
Matt ZeiglerHOST
And it was really interesting for a SIG-trained options trader and market maker to basically go, I never used this in my professional life.
Matt ZeiglerHOST
But I think this is a really interesting piece of math to break down and then going, I can figure out how to use this in my when I'm shopping for a warranty or not on my refrigerator and all these other applications beyond markets and and really bet sizing.
J.R.GUEST
You know, that is so important to being able to make sure that the strategies work.
J.R.GUEST
But just in case, see, if you go look up strategies online, Landrum, they give you some crazy things like the Kelly Criterion or the Martingale, which are negative and positive progressions, which in theory are good.
J.R.GUEST
When you take into the account that the variances that happen in sports betting don't happen the way it would happen on that algorithm where it's just win-win-lose-win-win-lose-lose-lose-win, they go up and down in gigantic peaks and valleys.
J.R.GUEST
My strategies encompass that.
Robert HagstromGUEST
The amount of your bet is being reduced.
Robert HagstromGUEST
It's the old Kelly theorem type situation.
Robert HagstromGUEST
So we're a little bit more comfortable.
Robert HagstromGUEST
In the spring, Dell had gone up 500%.
43 MINS LATER
Matt ZieglerHOST
So first off, stumbling into about this amount makes sense.
Matt ZieglerHOST
It had me thinking a lot.
Matt ZieglerHOST
I did this wonderful episode with Chris Abdel-Messiah where we basically worked through the math of the Kelly Criterion.
Matt ZieglerHOST
And it was really interesting for a SIG-trained options trader and market maker to basically go, I never used this in my professional life.
Robert J. SmithHOST
Mm-hmm
Chris PanagiotuGUEST
... using the Kelly Formula.
Robert J. SmithHOST
Right.
Chris PanagiotuGUEST
That's something I've actually been very passionate about as of late.
Type 3 AudioNARRATOR
We were allocating a lot of money to things we didn't think would deliver lots of impact just because they were safe.
Type 3 AudioNARRATOR
Subheading: The Kelly Criterion.
Type 3 AudioNARRATOR
Originating in finance, Kelly tells you the optimal fraction of your funds to bet on opportunities based on risk and reward.
Type 3 AudioNARRATOR
I first encountered it through Michael Lewis's book on Sam Bankman-Fried, who notably rejected Kelly as too conservative.
SamHOST
His fund just quietly compounded.
SophieHOST
And the engine behind all of it was the Kelly Criterion.
SophieHOST
It's a formula for how much of your bankroll to bet when you have an edge.
SophieHOST
Bet too little and you grow too slowly.
Jack ForehandHOST
And now like I understand so much more about that.
Jack ForehandHOST
And Chris too, like the Kelly criteria, people talk about that all the time, but in terms of what it actually means in terms of like, it's not in the clips, but like how it applies to insurance.
Jack ForehandHOST
Like it's just like, I learned a lot from that because people talk about them, but they don't actually necessarily know what the Kelly criteria is or how to use it.
Matt ZeiglerHOST
Yeah, read his on Panoptica.
Matt ZeiglerHOST
We published his, you'll now be position sizing bets in your head.
15 MINS LATER
Jack ForehandHOST
So anyway, moving on here, we're on to Chris Abdomencia, which we've alluded to before.
Jack ForehandHOST
Such a great podcast.
Jack ForehandHOST
I would recommend you listen to the whole thing, you and him, about the Kelly Criterion.
Steve MoriartyHOST
else.
Steve MoriartyHOST
I'm still trying to work out the Kelly Criterion with the NRL footy things.
Steve MoriartyHOST
I'm sure.
Jacob SeniorHOST
You're too passionate about it, mate.
George DykesGUEST
But the entree into that is to make a no pass bet.
ColinHOST
Did you see the Kelly Criterion post I did yet? Did you read it yet? You read it? How'd you like it?
George DykesGUEST
I liked it.
George DykesGUEST
I liked it.
George DykesGUEST
You know, lotteries is the biggest house edge in gambling.
ColinHOST
Yeah.
ColinHOST
Yeah, well, but in my Kelly Criterion post, I did state that it was not a good – idea to have agentic ai do this for you because of all the fees you know at the end of the day between short-term capital gains tax token fees all this stuff i layered on top that like yeah no i'm not saying to do that if you did a kelly correct if you bet small bets periodically and you had an edge let's say i mean yeah you can really make a lot of money because that's what i think renaissance did right with jim simons and them
George DykesGUEST
But
ColinHOST
And I would say that this post I did last night was titled Judgment Day for the Day Trader.
ColinHOST
Could Robinhood's AI agents run a Kelly Criterion trading strategy? This was the most fun I've had in a really long time writing a post on Substack.
ColinHOST
I don't know if it's because I'm so used to doing the morning podcast and getting it out or...
ColinHOST
And I haven't written in almost like weeks, you know, almost weeks.
12 more episodes mention Kelly criterion.
Create an account to see the whole feed, search across every transcript, and follow the entities you care about.