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Justin Herzig

Sep 8, 2026

10:08
All right, Justin, so like circling back then to PredictQ, let's talk about the product side, right? Let's talk about the types of tools you're building and the role that you see them playing in the trader toolkit.
10:18
Our tools are built for the full lifecycle of a trader.
10:21
So I'd call that four stages, discovery, research and analysis, you know, price and platform, and then the portfolio management.
10:28
So for that discovery piece, there are tens of thousands of open markets across Kaoshi and Pollen Market, and then over a hundred thousand when you expand other platforms.
10:37
So not only do our tools make it easy to search for a market you're looking for, but we're also building out tools that help you realize trading ideas that you wouldn't have thought of before.
10:45
So for example, Let's say you have a fantasy football team in a big matchup this week.
10:49
Our tool can help you find places to actually hedge against your players or double down if you have further conviction.

14 MINS LATER

24:39
Is it something that we could realize and then ultimately overcome this like scam decapper ecosystem or will that always be part of the industry? And then, you know, we'll kind of stop with it for better or for worse.
9:16
Who are the ones that you are targeting specifically? And then who are the ones you're not interested in?
9:20
Yeah, we can do a quick blitz through this.
9:22
So Jalen Naylor, I think ADP has not caught up.
9:25
He needs to be 20, 30 picks lower than he actually is right now.
9:28
We learned in the preseason with him being out there with Trey Tucker, the healthy scratch, that he's not the clear alpha or the number, not the number one in that offense.
9:37
And we're not even sure if he's number two or what that looks like for him.
9:39
Trey Tucker, the opposite.
14:39
So it's Chica Campo, Brenton Strange, Hunter Henry, Terrence Ferguson, Dalton Schultz, and TJ Hawkinson.
36:13
And Justin, when we get to these, like, final six rounds, is there any sort of macro-level strategy that you think, uh, or big mistakes that you see managers starting to make when we get into, like, the end game, the final third for best ball?
36:26
[lips smack] Yeah.
36:27
So for best ball, I think it really is, is just kind of filling out that roster, but doing it with where you can kind of get the best either, you know, projection or upside and not just fitting it to, well, I need to finish with a three six eight three or a three five seven or whatever that roster construction is.
36:46
Um, so for me, if I invested heavily at running backs and I grabbed two running backs in the first three rounds, okay, awesome.
36:53
Now I'm gonna be looking at to figure out like how do I get complimentary backs here? Am I looking to make this just a four or five RB team and then I just want someone who's gonna be seeing the field? Or did I only grab one early? This is gonna be a six running back team and I know I'm gonna have the quantity so let me just be going for upside with these picks.
37:09
So it's really just like figuring out how do you tell-- how does your team tell a story? From a redraft angle, obviously very different.
37:16
You don't wanna be going after these wide receivers that you're, you know On best ball give you spike week, but in redraft, when do you actually feel comfortable starting them? Instead, going for those running backs that, hey, when there's an injury, you know this player has the projectable volume of putting him in.

11 MINS LATER

48:17
Where, where is your interest level in him and the, and sort of a price tag you'd be comfortable with Ashton Jeanty?
89:59
Is that the way that you're seeing the Jaguars this year? Or are you happy to buy the dip to still continue to get other pieces, cheaper pieces of this Jaguars passing game?
90:10
So I think the steam on Parker Washington is legitimate.
90:13
I do think he's going to be their number one receiver.
90:15
It's just such a weird anomaly situation when a player like that kind of comes out of nowhere competing against first round talent at the spot.
90:26
And he just fits into what Liam Cohen wants to do with that offense and he does it well.
90:31
And so I think we do need to treat him as that number one now.
90:35
It's the number one, you know, strong, high, you know, high power passing offense, but it's also not a concentrated offense.

23 MINS LATER

113:26
Where do you stand in a national tournament like a big field tournament like this, Justin, when it comes to stat cuffing or handcuffing your own running backs versus drafting other people's injury away type guys?
20:51
Anyways, Herzig, how does it feel to be ahead of market on Derrick Henry for the first time in the history, the illustrious history of ETR?
20:59
Dirty, shocking, confusing, uh, all those words.
21:02
But even when you think back to, like, two, three, four years ago when we were comparing Derrick Henry, we were also comparing him to backs that were expected to get tons of volume too.
21:10
Today's NFL has changed.
21:11
You don't have nearly as many backs that have the type of workload volume that we're expecting for Derrick Henry.
21:16
So first off, uncontested from a volume monster.
21:19
There's no new competition in that backfield.

25 MINS LATER

46:01
So Herzig, what do you think about us being about eight spots behind market here on Josh Allen?
3:18
My concern is that this is what everyone is doing this year, so how do you balance those two things? Herzig, and do you agree, robust RB top strategy for this year?
3:27
Yeah, I mean, it's been a while, and BBM one, that's seven years ago, hyper fragile, so two kind of in that early three, three and early five was definitely my go-to strategy, and the following year it was, you know, two early and then wait.
3:39
It hasn't been since that BBM two that we've been looking at the running backs taking that many this early.
3:45
It's been far more valuable to...
3:47
I mean, like, if you missed out on wide receivers in past years, you couldn't make up for it with quantity because so many of those wide receivers were going early on.
3:55
This year, if you look at the data, running backs are going earlier than we've seen, and it's not just at the top, but as you get into those later rounds, too.
4:02
So it kind of gets that spot of if you miss out on them early, you're then trying to make up for them with quantity.

29 MINS LATER

33:03
What do you think about zero RB this year, Herzie?
7:15
People are worried that best ball, you know, is it going to be declining in popularity? Do you see that kind of conflict with prediction markets? And I guess your overall thoughts on kind of you transitioning yourself from, I'm sure you still play a lot of fantasy, but transitioning into being, like, that product/tech leader for this new emerging markets, which is prediction markets.
7:34
Yeah.
7:34
I mean, there's no question this is where the world is going.
7:37
You can look at kind of like...
7:39
You just look at the communications from the top, top leaders like Jason Robins from DraftKings, said they're gonna invest four hundred million dollars to convert people to prediction markets.
7:47
Then, um, FanDuel following suit.
7:49
Uh, the Underdog, you know, definitely making that, I don't wanna call it a pivot, but definitely a shift to the prediction markets from the kind of more sports betting end.

12 MINS LATER

19:54
Uh, what, what, what do people need to be careful about when they're first kinda getting, getting on and getting their feet wet, I guess, with prediction markets to begin with?

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