J
Justin Herzig
7
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Sep 8, 2026
Ep. 226: Empowering prediction market traders w/ Justin & Cam from PredictQ
10:08
24:39

Jesse LearmonthHOST
All right, Justin, so like circling back then to PredictQ, let's talk about the product side, right? Let's talk about the types of tools you're building and the role that you see them playing in the trader toolkit.
J
10:21Justin HerzigGUEST
So I'd call that four stages, discovery, research and analysis, you know, price and platform, and then the portfolio management.
J
10:28Justin HerzigGUEST
So for that discovery piece, there are tens of thousands of open markets across Kaoshi and Pollen Market, and then over a hundred thousand when you expand other platforms.
J
10:37Justin HerzigGUEST
So not only do our tools make it easy to search for a market you're looking for, but we're also building out tools that help you realize trading ideas that you wouldn't have thought of before.
J
10:45Justin HerzigGUEST
So for example, Let's say you have a fantasy football team in a big matchup this week.
J
10:49Justin HerzigGUEST
Our tool can help you find places to actually hedge against your players or double down if you have further conviction.
14 MINS LATER

Jesse LearmonthHOST
Is it something that we could realize and then ultimately overcome this like scam decapper ecosystem or will that always be part of the industry? And then, you know, we'll kind of stop with it for better or for worse.
Best Ball Mania Champ Justin Herzig on Ashton Jeanty & WR Values
N
9:16Neil OrfieldHOST
Who are the ones that you are targeting specifically? And then who are the ones you're not interested in?
J
9:28Justin HerzigGUEST
We learned in the preseason with him being out there with Trey Tucker, the healthy scratch, that he's not the clear alpha or the number, not the number one in that offense.
N
14:39Neil OrfieldHOST
So it's Chica Campo, Brenton Strange, Hunter Henry, Terrence Ferguson, Dalton Schultz, and TJ Hawkinson.
The BEST Fantasy Football Pick in EVERY Round (2026) with Justin Herzig
36:13
48:17

Theo GremmingerHOST
And Justin, when we get to these, like, final six rounds, is there any sort of macro-level strategy that you think, uh, or big mistakes that you see managers starting to make when we get into, like, the end game, the final third for best ball?
J
36:27Justin HerzigGUEST
So for best ball, I think it really is, is just kind of filling out that roster, but doing it with where you can kind of get the best either, you know, projection or upside and not just fitting it to, well, I need to finish with a three six eight three or a three five seven or whatever that roster construction is.
J
36:46Justin HerzigGUEST
Um, so for me, if I invested heavily at running backs and I grabbed two running backs in the first three rounds, okay, awesome.
J
36:53Justin HerzigGUEST
Now I'm gonna be looking at to figure out like how do I get complimentary backs here? Am I looking to make this just a four or five RB team and then I just want someone who's gonna be seeing the field? Or did I only grab one early? This is gonna be a six running back team and I know I'm gonna have the quantity so let me just be going for upside with these picks.
J
37:09Justin HerzigGUEST
So it's really just like figuring out how do you tell-- how does your team tell a story? From a redraft angle, obviously very different.
J
37:16Justin HerzigGUEST
You don't wanna be going after these wide receivers that you're, you know On best ball give you spike week, but in redraft, when do you actually feel comfortable starting them? Instead, going for those running backs that, hey, when there's an injury, you know this player has the projectable volume of putting him in.
11 MINS LATER

Theo GremmingerHOST
Where, where is your interest level in him and the, and sort of a price tag you'd be comfortable with Ashton Jeanty?
Draft for $400K in Best Ball LIVE! | Justin Herzig
E
89:59Eric BalkmanHOST
Is that the way that you're seeing the Jaguars this year? Or are you happy to buy the dip to still continue to get other pieces, cheaper pieces of this Jaguars passing game?
J
90:15Justin HerzigGUEST
It's just such a weird anomaly situation when a player like that kind of comes out of nowhere competing against first round talent at the spot.
J
90:26Justin HerzigGUEST
And he just fits into what Liam Cohen wants to do with that offense and he does it well.
J
90:35Justin HerzigGUEST
It's the number one, you know, strong, high, you know, high power passing offense, but it's also not a concentrated offense.
23 MINS LATER
E
113:26Eric BalkmanHOST
Where do you stand in a national tournament like a big field tournament like this, Justin, when it comes to stat cuffing or handcuffing your own running backs versus drafting other people's injury away type guys?
Where ETR Ranks Disagree Most With The Market and WHY (Episode 993 with Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, Justin Herzig, Jack Miller)
20:51
46:01

Adam LevitanHOST
Anyways, Herzig, how does it feel to be ahead of market on Derrick Henry for the first time in the history, the illustrious history of ETR?
J
21:02Justin HerzigGUEST
But even when you think back to, like, two, three, four years ago when we were comparing Derrick Henry, we were also comparing him to backs that were expected to get tons of volume too.
J
21:11Justin HerzigGUEST
You don't have nearly as many backs that have the type of workload volume that we're expecting for Derrick Henry.
25 MINS LATER

Adam LevitanHOST
So Herzig, what do you think about us being about eight spots behind market here on Josh Allen?
Ranking The Top-9 Strategies For 2026 Best Ball (Episode 981 with Adam Levitan, Pete Overzet, Justin Herzig)
3:18

Adam LevitanHOST
My concern is that this is what everyone is doing this year, so how do you balance those two things? Herzig, and do you agree, robust RB top strategy for this year?
J
3:27Justin HerzigGUEST
Yeah, I mean, it's been a while, and BBM one, that's seven years ago, hyper fragile, so two kind of in that early three, three and early five was definitely my go-to strategy, and the following year it was, you know, two early and then wait.
J
3:39Justin HerzigGUEST
It hasn't been since that BBM two that we've been looking at the running backs taking that many this early.
J
3:47Justin HerzigGUEST
I mean, like, if you missed out on wide receivers in past years, you couldn't make up for it with quantity because so many of those wide receivers were going early on.
J
3:55Justin HerzigGUEST
This year, if you look at the data, running backs are going earlier than we've seen, and it's not just at the top, but as you get into those later rounds, too.
J
4:02Justin HerzigGUEST
So it kind of gets that spot of if you miss out on them early, you're then trying to make up for them with quantity.
29 MINS LATER
Fantasy Edge - Justin Herzig's Best Ball Decision Pyramid
7:15
19:54

Chris DellHOST
People are worried that best ball, you know, is it going to be declining in popularity? Do you see that kind of conflict with prediction markets? And I guess your overall thoughts on kind of you transitioning yourself from, I'm sure you still play a lot of fantasy, but transitioning into being, like, that product/tech leader for this new emerging markets, which is prediction markets.
J
7:39Justin HerzigGUEST
You just look at the communications from the top, top leaders like Jason Robins from DraftKings, said they're gonna invest four hundred million dollars to convert people to prediction markets.
J
7:49Justin HerzigGUEST
Uh, the Underdog, you know, definitely making that, I don't wanna call it a pivot, but definitely a shift to the prediction markets from the kind of more sports betting end.
12 MINS LATER

Chris DellHOST
Uh, what, what, what do people need to be careful about when they're first kinda getting, getting on and getting their feet wet, I guess, with prediction markets to begin with?