I just really struggle to paint a picture where Javante stays healthy for 17 games and is anything worse than like a top 15 running back.

I understand.

That's kind of the poking the hole in the dead zone this year is that the dead zone backs, you could argue, are easily better than they've ever been.

Kyron Williams, Travis Etienne, Javante Williams.

That's why I also like to personally zoom out and just remind myself that the names may be different, but the results really don't change.

I mean, they could change, and there are outliers.

That's why I mentioned Brees Hall, Jeremiah Love, just because at least those guys do earn targets, whereas Javante Williams last year.

Probably, John, going to be double tapping wide receiver here unless there's some running backs that you are especially interested in.

That's not gonna be our best way to score." Daigle, any final thoughts on Rashee Rice here?

It's pretty much the argument I've been making against Patrick Mahomes this off-season, in that everyone forgot two years prior to last season he was the QB14 and QB11 as a streamable option in points per game, and last year then surged higher because he averaged over five rushing points per game.

It was a new career high for him.

The difference is he's now coming back from a torn ACL he suffered in December, so it's really hard to, to then take on Patrick Mahomes, in my opinion, in his territory where he goes in drafts.

Same for Rashee Rice because all of those receivers you mentioned.

I've done enough home leagues, too, now where I've seen Rice drafted over- Uh, Olave and Nico Collins at times, and so that's also really tough.

Cyrus Allen is the guy everyone's really interested in.

Dagle, what do you think about the recent rise of Bucky Irving?

Um, but your, your, your general thoughts on why Price wasn't a, uh, a good pick there.

Uh, I think when you look at the positives, all Jahdarian Price has going for him is the first round draft capital, which is, is great.

Don't get me wrong.

In the last decade, just being drafted in the first round alone has accounted for 34% of a running back's first year fantasy points.

It's a big deal.

But when we talk about similar to Matthew Golden being drafted in the first round, a completely different position I know, but we still looked at the profile and said, "You should not be here." And that came true with Matthew Golden.

Uh, I look at Jahdarian Price's profile and once again I'm saying, "You should definitely not be here." I think the alarm should sound for anyone in fantasy, uh, whenever we try to force touches to a running back who has never handled touches.

Your thoughts on this though, John?

The ADPs are actually going to shift, but you definitely do see it in some drafts.

OK, well, regardless, we saw when Chuba Hubbard came back last year from his injury after Rico Dowdle became Walter Payton for two games.

Chuba Hubbard wasn't even the primary receiving back anymore as Rico Dowdle still had a higher target share.

So in Hubbard.

really having outs and early downs, but nothing else.

Maybe you'd have to cross your fingers for a Jonathan Brooks injury.

It really just about the discrepancy, discrepancy and margin, uh, waiting to draft Brooks one to two rounds later.

So I say starting with Omar Cooper, do any names especially interest you round 12 or later? And of course, feel free to say no, but yeah, just any, and I listed some of them by ADP here, but if you like any of these or any other late round rookie wide receivers, curious who you are targeting in drafts.

Yeah.

I took Bijan Robinson, and I made my entire personality around Christian McCaffrey from 110 on over Saquon Barkley last year, and I'm using the same argument for Christian McCaffrey this season and why I'm worried about him.

Uh, his 450 touches were the 10th most of the 21st century last year, and there were only 38 times that a running back handled 350 plus, including the playoffs, since 2014, so over the last 12 years.

And only six of those running backs, 15.7%, improved in points per game the following season.

That includes Saquon Barkley last year, who handled 480 plus touches in 2024, then last year lost 7.7 points per game as the RB15 that you drafted in the first round.

Not great.

I'm not saying McCaffrey's going to reach that point, but it's at least nitpicking enough in the first round where I do want other players over him, including Justin Jefferson, who we're not gonna talk about on today's show.

Oh, yeah

Who is your favorite player in this range, and is this a range of running backs you like to attack?

Mm, actually it's not a range of running backs I like to attack.

Basically because to, to get into the big picture outlook of this, uh, I believe winning drafts this year, when we talk about exceeding ADP expectations, most of them will involved breaking down and hammering that third tier of wide receivers, everyone from...

If you wanna include Devonta Smith in there.

But basically Zay Flowers all the way down to, to Mike Evans, DJ Moore.

I think getting three or four of those guys are really going to be key here, mixing in an elite quarterback who can outscore the, everyone else at his position too.

And that just naturally leaves me out on these running backs, despite them having logically, on paper, good situations.

When you look at this group of running backs, these five guys, is there a particular player that stands out to you? Uh, and maybe one you're completely fading?

And so my question to you is, who are your favorites from that range, and why is it that you're willing to take some of those guys over a Javonte or a, you know, Montgomery if you're in the, you know, if you're in the same camp with Montgomery or even a Kyren?

If we're predicting 2027 ADP, it's mostly because these third-round guys, I believe, can exceed where they're being drafted, and they've all flashed that ceiling for us.

Uh, gosh, how much time do we have? But the, the list of these wide receivers, which is why again, I'm focusing my drafts around it entirely.

Uh, let's start with Zay Flowers, who you mentioned at the top there, who to this point hasn't finished as a top 24 wide receiver in points per game, mostly because of how he's been used.

Uh, he's never had more than seven end zone targets in, in any of his seasons in his career.

Baltimore also averaged the second-fewest pass attempts the last decade, 24.8 last season, and the six teams to average fewer than 27 attempts in that span the last 10 years collectively increased their passes per game by 6.1 the following year.

Uh, also, not to mention a young and intuitive play caller we expect in Declan Doyle, who comes from the Ben Johnson coaching tree.

Yeah.

I'll talk about the prices on these guys in a second here, Daigle, but thoughts on Mike McDaniel taking over the Chargers.

Zooming out really quickly for everyone, what this annual episode and really fantasy football during the off-season has become is targeting the Gary Kubiak, Mike Shanahan coaching trees.

And the league has averaged seven yards per attempt, for example, over the last decade.

That's really the bar we're, we're going for here.

And until last year when Brock Purdy was injured, Kyle Shanahan had produced a quarterback who averaged at least eight yards per throw since 2015 with Matt Ryan.

Mike McDaniel left Shanahan to join the Dolphins in 2022, and you wouldn't think so with all the up and downs Tua has had in that time, but only in the last four years have the Niners, Ravens, Lions, and Bills averaged more yards for play than that Dolphins offense.

Even Tua has been eighth in yards per attempt since 2022, and led the league in multiple categories, uh, as an MVP candidate actually a few years ago as well.

Dagle, any thoughts on Raiders stuff with Klint Kubiak?

You know how cold and, uh, you know, inhospitable that can be.

Uh, well, Chicago still put up good numbers in the winter last month too.

The thing is, uh, we have been debating all weekend long, like, what to do with the Bears' projections, because right now if it, we, if we all had our way, they would be projecting as if they were the 49er, or they would be projecting as if they were the, the greatest show on turf, the Rams.

Because then we'd have Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, we'd raise Roma Dunze's projection as well, and Caleb Williams would be, you know, even based on ADP, like a top six quarterback when that's just not the case.

So I think it's just really hard to get the Bears right right now.

We're bullish on DeAndre Swift.

I'm sure we'll talk about him in this draft too, but there always comes that point in drafts where you kind of have to decide, are you going to reach for a running back by the second or third round, or are you going to be content with one of David Montgomery, Basile Tutun, or Swift as your RB one, and then just, like, filling out the rest of your room with darts that could get touches, but they have to have an injury happen ahead of them.

Can you push Stafford 14 picks past ADP and get him if you have Puka and Adams?" So that'll be an interesting decision.

Talk to me about Jeremiah Love and what bet you like with the Notre Dame running back.

The early consensus, and I really believe it became a consensus just because no one knew what was happening with the new regime under Robert Saleh and the Titans at number four overall, was that that was the organization that was going to take-Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love.

Since then, though, since all the national reporters that we trust, Peter Schrager, Adam Schefter, the list goes on, have gained more information, it seems like Jeremiah Love's absolutely not being taken at number four.

And really all that was happening is that everyone was assuming in some kind of order edge rushers Arvel Reese and David Bailey were going to go number two and three overall to the Jets and Cardinals, which then forced the Titans' hand to take the best player available, which in this case would be, or in a lot of people's minds, be Jeremiah Love.

But I don't think that's the case at all.

I think with, again, being under a new defensive-minded coach in Robert Saleh, that we are looking at even if Reese and Bailey were to go two and three, there's still a chance the Titans instead leap at someone like Sonny Styles over Jeremiah Love.

And so right now I think that Jeremiah Love falling beyond, outside of the top five, and slipping to the Commanders at number seven is a healthy bet.

What about number six overall, plus 800, you've got Jordan Tyson, the electric Arizona State receiver.

Talk to me about Jeremiah Love and what bet you like with the Notre Dame running back.

The early consensus, and I really believe it became a consensus just because no one knew what was happening with the new regime under Robert Saleh and the Titans at number four overall, was that that was the organization that was going to take-Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love.

Since then, though, since all the national reporters that we trust, Peter Schrager, Adam Schefter, the list goes on, have gained more information, it seems like Jeremiah Love's absolutely not being taken at number four.

And really all that was happening is that everyone was assuming in some kind of order edge rushers Arval Bryce and David Bailey were going to go number two and three overall to the Jets and Cardinals, which then forced the Titans' hand to take the best player available, which in this case would be, or, in a lot of people's minds, be Jeremiah Love.

But I don't think that's the case at all.

I think with, again, being under a new defensive-minded coach in Robert Saleh, that we are looking at even if Reese and Bailey were to go two and three, there's still a chance the Titans instead leap at someone like Sonny Stiles over Jeremiah Love.

And so right now I think that Jeremiah Love falling beyond, outside of the top five, and slipping to the Commanders at number seven, is a healthy bet.

What about number six overall, plus 800, you've got Jordan Tyson, the electric Arizona State receiver.

Who's the current best buy low targets out there right now, John?

I got a few of them for you, and you have to step back and remember when we say buy low, it doesn't feel good.

You're buying into a situation that there's a reason you can buy low.

So if you have Brian Thomas, McConkey, as you mentioned, you did that at a terrible portion, something that did not feel good to take on, but you understood the risk and their ceiling.

And to me, there are a couple players that encapsulate that right now.

I want to start with Zay Flowers, because through the first month of the y- season, Lamar Jackson actually led the league with nine and a half yards per attempt, and the Ravens that time were top three in both yards and EPA per play.

Zay Flowers from Lamar Jackson this season, seventh in yards per outrun and has the league's seventh-highest target share at 27.5%.

(laughs)