What are you seeing right now?

Yeah, John, as we are...

John and Conrad, I apologize.

As we are sitting here today on the 23rd, 2 p.m. Eastern Time, the 10-year Treasury today is up 3%.

We're looking at 5.12%.

So just for some perspective, that's the highest all year we're sitting here at.

Now, why is that important? Conrad, you hit the nail on the head.

And basically in all my matches, yeah.

We just stole the podcast.

So, I'm not a doom and gloom when it comes to the real estate market, so I want to preface that.

Transactions are happening, but I do think that we're at an inflection point.

Now, I'm going to start from the top and just take it through here, but I think there's some really interesting things happening at the macro level that you can weigh in on here, and we can go back and forth.

But to start, the big story right now in housing last week is that the median list price continues to drop.

So if we go all the way back to July the 24th, I brought this up here.

Median list price was about $449,900.

Is that what you're thinking that happens?

Wouldn't you agree?

100%.

And where they go wrong on time, because I won't say everybody gets it, but they'll say, hey, there's something with the 45 days and there's something with the 180.

What they think is that, hey, the 180 starts after the 45th day and it doesn't.

It all starts at day zero, which is the day that you sold the property.

And again, if you roll in now, so think about that.

You just did it on the sales side.

Because if you just continue to, uh, to push forward with the 10 31 exchange, you create yourself a game where it's hard to lose from a tax perspective, right?

Yeah.

Exactly.

So that $55,000 gap, you've got a couple things.

One, you can look at all the active listings on the market, and there's a number, and you could see new listings are going listed for $445.

But the real number you wanna look at is what are they going under contract for? And that number is $55,000 below.

So you still have sellers kind of trying to ask that number.

But nationwide, as well as Texas, pricing is dropping in a, in a, in a major way, and it's worth, it's worth calling that out on here.

What is the real strategy here, James?

Conrad did it to me again.

It's okay.

It's okay.

Let me deliver the goods here.

So, hey, guys, this week is an interesting week, and then I'd love to be able to tell you what I saw, uh, this morning regarding the PPI report release.

But essentially this past week, inventory went down, and this is what we would expect this time for the summer.

So there's about 865,000 homes on the market nationwide.

Okay.

Is there a balancing act, or what is the strategy if you have been thinking about selling or maybe your house has been actively listed, but there's just not the interest you hoped for? Is there a strategy to saying, "Hey, let's take it off the market, and let's re- let's reassess this next year or another time"? Or do you think this is the new trend, and now's the time to get up and leave the table, if we were playing cards?

Okay, so there's a, there's a game that, uh, real estate agents will play and, and savvy sellers will play, and there's a, there's a way to see it, see past it.

So I can give you both sides of the coin, whether you're the buyer, retail buyer, investor buyer, retail seller, or investor seller.

I'll give you the whole, whole gamut right now.

Uh, a lot of times what they'll do is they'll take the home off the market to get it to do a small little decrease to get it back on the market, and now it kind of hits the top of Zillow again, and Zillow will email it out, and it kind of gains more attention.

You gotta be aware of that little trick, 'cause sellers are gonna play that.

Listing agents are gonna play that game, which is why as a buyer you want to look at what they call cumulative days on market, so you're able to kind of get the whole here.

Mm-hmm

But my guess is they probably hold with the bias to raise.

Yeah, I'm not going to, I guess I would agree with you there, but we're obviously watching in housing.

The reason being, again, is that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is based off the 10-year treasury, which obviously is affected by the Fed rate.

10-year treasury, as we're recording right now, is up there.

It's 4.65. We're sitting right now about a 865,000 single family homes are on the market throughout the country right now.

That's the highest it's been all year.

Now keep in mind, we're in the summertime.

And I think that's going to be the opportunity in real estate because you're going to see where these people are moving, and you're going to see where these people are moving from.

Is this all, James, because the existing homeowners are holding on to those 2020, 2021 dreams?

Yeah, so it's playing into that.

That's one side of the coin.

The other side of the coin, though, is it's not really an apples to apples comparison.

So if you start thinking about the new construction, builders are getting smarter.

They're adapting.

They're building smaller homes.

I see it going up significantly.

What is this year's buying season going to look like with this new shot in the arm? What do you think now, James? Have you adjusted the sales a little bit?

So here, as we sit here today, and we mentioned on last week's show, hey, we wanted to see what the jobs numbers, what that report was going to look like.

We all saw it come out on Friday.

We saw how the market reacted.

However, National Association of Realtors just released their numbers, existing home sales for last month up 3.2% year over year.

We're looking at mortgage rates that are sitting right now at about 6.6%.

So again, all season, we've essentially said buyers have kind of been on the sidelines waiting.

Right.