And

as Bitcoin gets bigger, those unrealized profits get bigger, but they never get released.

They're offsetting the losses that people hold who bought the top.

But what do people who bought the top do? They do release them.

They sell in a panic.

So one side of the equation breaks down.

The other one doesn't.

What do you think of that?

And also your overall view currently on the, we'll say the American consumer and the American economy.

So on the American side, I have absolutely zero edge whatsoever.

So I'm going to leave that entirely to Joe.

I couldn't tell you what an American GDP number looks like.

But for the housing on the Australian side, I mean, we've gone through, you guys talk about housing affordability in America.

No, you come down to Australia, get a job here and you try and buy a home.

The starting price for a home is, if you're not showing up with, in Aussie terms, two, three million, which is, I don't know, 1.8, Age, 1.6, American.

Do you have any insight or read currently on sentiment? Do we have any thoughts on sentiment? And then also, what is the on chain data telling you?

Where do you think we are?

Yeah, I mean, good to see him again, mate.

It's been a long time.

Yeah, so my framework, at the end of the day, market cycle is the way I try to analyze things.

It's all about human psychology.

And a lot of the metrics we look at in the on-chain world, I think people fall down the wrong, and I get it, it's very natural.

They're looking for predictions.

um how are you how would you if you kind of zoom out and give a broad view on bitcoin treasury companies uh and to be clear here what we're talking about is not the spacex tesla you know cash app block style but the financial yeah the you know strategy meta planets drive this kind of thing how what's your view on that class of bitcoin treasury companies

Is, is that what that comes down to? That people are just, they're engaged both attention-wise and monetarily with other things?

I think there's a few elements to this.

I've been spending a lot of time thinking about it, and I think it's actually a very big topic.

Uh, let's start small and we'll zoom out.

I think there's three key things that I've just had my mind on.

I think first and foremost, uh, the treasury company thing/Michael Saylor/strategy.

Now, I think the strategy and everything they're doing is fascinating.

Okay.

Yeah.

That's just, that's just the nature of the beast, and all this stuff accelerates it.

You know? It accelerates the approach to it.

Uh, and you know, what, what is kind of interesting at the moment, I mean, you mentioned the debasement trade before.

Uh, I found it kind of interesting that the, the...

I think it was JPMorgan released, like, the debasement trade as, like, a thing.

Now, you and I and gold bugs and everyone have been talking about the debasement trade for years, right? Twenty nineteen, I think things really started to accelerate in terms of that dynamic.

Uh, but I think just to the point, uh, brought that up is like what do you think happens with broader crypto moving forward? Do you think this is gonna become-

Like, w- how should we be evaluating what Bitcoin's doing?

Yes.

So, uh, I'm actually gonna start with something.

This is a diagram that I, I use to just try and help people understand what we're looking at in the first place.

So think about the entire Bitcoin supply, and for those who are just listening, uh, it's basically this is like a grid system.

Um, think about it, it's like a 3D box.

The whole Bitcoin supply, just think about it as a space.

What are the chances?