Indus Waters Treaty

So for example, in the 1960s, India and Pakistan were in a shooting war.

They're actually in active conflict and competition with each other, and they still signed the Indus Water Treaty to protect the existential safety of their shared water supply.

On the International Space Station, you have astronauts from the US and Russia, who may be down on, you know, planet Earth are, are in a conflict, but up there when you're in one safe container that you need to be safe, you can collaborate on existential safety.

Uh, and so what I think is that as soon as this, the, what the press and the media need to do, and what everyone can do, is to help the rest of the world understand why AI is uncontrollable.

Capabilities take a long time to build.

Take this example of Indus Water Treaty.

We announced it, but we have never created any capability to be able to use even our share of water.

Okay, so, but getting back to the point, so the special forces are continuously updating themselves.

Over what?

This is regarding a pronouncement made by a court of arbitration tied to the Indus Waters Treaty.

On August 31st, the specific court of arbitration ruled that the treaty remains in force.

OK.

It did not participate in the proceedings and it maintains the court lacks any legitimate jurisdiction over the matter.

The context of why the treaty is in the freezer is vital here.

India paused its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty last year in April.

This was a direct response to the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 people.

They have to do something about Haiti.

They have to do the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan and India.

And then the Mecca security, I just sort of retrofitted the syllabus for that so that they can pick from that.

Those aren't things we're going to study in detail, but I want to learn from them, right? I want them to do the research, divide it up in a group, and then present on it.

The Indus Basin is another case where we've seen dangerous recent developments last year following a terrorist attack in northern India that India attributed to insurgents based in Pakistan.

India nominally suspended or held in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty that governed India the management of water resources in that basin.

And this has been used as a means of political leverage over Pakistan to threaten to, on the one hand, withhold cooperation around the Indus, but also explicitly to, by suspending the treaty and suspending its obligations to pursue development projects in India that could potentially disrupt water flows downstream to Pakistan and therefore directly compromise agricultural economies and livelihoods in Pakistan, whether it be then the Nile and Ethiopia's development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, that raises the same questions for Egypt.

Again, those matters of upstream developments in dams, in water storage that could shift, alter, disrupt water availability downstream.

geographies of the world or pose problems potentially significant dangers of escalation or expansion.

So think of the conflict that we were talking about in the Indus Basin, where India and Pakistan have longstanding tensions between them related not only to the Indus River Basin water, but territorial contestation around Jammu and Kashmir, through which the main tributaries of the Indus flow, India and Pakistan, are nuclear-armed neighbors.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty may have raised potentially dangerous lessons for India and Pakistan in the recent conflict in that modern technology of missiles and drones and their use in the May crisis of last year seem to have taught India and Pakistan that there may be more steps or rungs on the escalatory ladder through non-contact warfare.

Because when civilian infrastructure becomes in the minds of adversaries a potential weapon or tool of conflict, then a preemptive strike or a defensive strike or tensions around that infrastructure can in turn become not only a potential consequence of conflict, but possibly a logic or a driver to conflict.