Hurricane Melissa

They had a lot of customers in Jamaica.

And then Jamaica got hit by Hurricane Melissa in late October 2025.

So over a year ago, damaged a lot of homes and businesses and communications infrastructure.

It's apparently the strongest as well as the costliest hurricane on record to strike Jamaica.

Some they thought was going to take a lot longer.

They factored all this into their latest revenue, but they're losing money from not having these businesses connected, and they also have to pay to revive the damaged network.

They also got an $81 million insurance payout, though, as a result of Hurricane Melissa, which has covered most but not all of the costs.

But I think some of the valuing of the business right now is based on the lost revenue they had and the cost to rebuild the infrastructure.

Wonderful.

So it's been a year since Hurricane Melissa.

How would you describe where Jamaica is today compared to a year ago? I'm sure it's a huge difference.

Can you believe it? It's a year already.

the way everyone pictures it, it's just a dot out there in the Caribbean Sea.

But to be honest with you, we are quite a rock to reckon with.

So on the approach of Hurricane Melissa, the expectation is that it was coming from east to west.

So the Kingston portion of the island.

The latest edition of the Caribbean Financial Dispatch is also available at caribbeanfinancialdispatch.substack.com. Our special guest this week is economist Kenan Faulkner, who joins us to examine Jamaica one year after Melissa.

Why is recovery taking so long? One year after Hurricane Melissa devastated significant sections of Jamaica, important questions remain about the pace of reconstruction and the country's economic recovery.

Despite substantial financing commitments and the restoration of essential services, the anticipated reconstruction-driven economic rebound has been difficult to identify.

Are institutional bottlenecks delaying recovery? Has the government's policy response adequately supported economic activity? And perhaps most importantly, is Jamaica better prepared to withstand the next major hurricane? Kenan Faulkner joins us to examine whether Jamaica is genuinely recovering or simply rebuilding without addressing the vulnerabilities exposed by Melissa.

This is your market brief.

In Jamaica, August remittances rose 9.4% to $294 million, while the merchandise trade deficit widened 7.3% to $3.72 billion.

Hurricane Melissa recovery expenditure reached $84 billion, while insurers settled $59.4 billion in claims.

In public finances, Barbados' debt ratio declined to 93.6% of GDP, although economic growth slowed to 1.4%.

Bye.

The Jamaican government has suspended non-essential overseas travel for ministers and public sector officials until March 31, 2027, as the country redirects financial and administrative resources towards recovery and reconstruction efforts following Hurricane Melissa.

The travel restrictions were outlined in a memorandum dated October 21st issued by Cabinet Secretary Audrey Sowell and applied to government ministers, senior officials, board members, executives and employees across ministries, departments, agencies and other public bodies.

Under the directive, overseas trips will be permitted only for essential government business that cannot reasonably be conducted virtually or through alternative arrangements.

The moratorium applies to all official travel, regardless of whether expenses are covered by public funds or external sponsors.

Government officials who received approval to travel before the directive was issued will also have their arrangements reviewed, as previous authorization does not guarantee an exemption.

The government said the sweeping restrictions are necessary in light of the extensive devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa, which has placed considerable pressure on the country's financial resources and administrative capacity.

According to the memorandum, Jamaica's recovery and reconstruction program will require significant financial, technical and administrative support, making strict spending controls and careful resource allocation essential.

Regional is up next.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness has announced an additional 9.65 billion Jamaican dollars in funding for the government's restoration of owner or occupant family shelters or roofs program to ensure eligible households affected by Hurricane Melissa receive financial assistance.

Speaking at a special press briefing at Jamaica House on Tuesday, October 27, Holness disclosed that more than 118,000 households had been assessed and identified as requiring support under the initiative.

According to the Prime Minister, approximately half of those households have already received assistance, with the government spending close to $12 billion so far.

The ROOFS Initiative forms part of the government's wider shelter recovery program designed to help families repair and rebuild homes damaged by Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica on October 28, 2025.

Holness said the administration is working to accelerate the distribution of assistance with the target of reaching 90% of assessed households by the end of December.

The remaining 10% are expected to receive support in January of 2027.

Turning now to Jamaica, where people are marking the one-year anniversary of the strongest hurricane to ever hit the island.

Hurricane Melissa made landfall on Jamaica's southwest coast as a Category 5 storm.

We begin tonight with this monster hurricane slamming.

I heard about Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane.

Tonight, the first look at Melissa's catastrophic trail of destruction through Jamaica.

We begin tonight with the latest bulletin on where Hurricane Melissa is going next.

The storm tracked north and east, leveling homes and mangling farms and businesses.

Ultimately, it killed 45 people and displaced thousands more.

And this is not a demo.

The National Hurricane Center had live AI predictions in front of them during the 2025 season, including Hurricane Melissa's rapid intensification in its landfall in Jamaica.

And then there's Gencast, Nature, December 2024.

Now, beat the world's leading ensemble in 97.2% of 1,324 forecast targets.

And we turn our attention tonight to a decision by the Jamaican government that raised some important questions about public spending.

national priorities and accountability, the government has imposed a moratorium on official overseas travel across the public sector until March 31, 2027, as Jamaica continues to grapple with the financial demands of recovering from Hurricane Melissa.

Let me be clear, there is nothing wrong with a government seeking to reduce unnecessary expenditure.

In fact, when a country is facing enormous financial pressures, every dollar of taxpayers' money must be spent wisely.

So how does Jamaica distinguish wasteful travel from travel that genuinely benefits the country? And more importantly, why should the Jamaican people have to wait for a crisis before demanding a greater discipline in public spending? They talk about discipline in public spending, they talk about discipline in transparency, discipline in openness, discipline in accountability, discipline in integrity, discipline in leadership, discipline in selflessness.

Of course, some of the things I'm talking about are the different seven codes of conduct.

and as our people continue to rebuild their homes business and lives after hurricane melissa which we're going to get to the anniversary accountability cannot be selected it must apply so across government from travel expenses and consultancy contracts of procurement and the management of reconstruction funds We've examined some of the stories affecting Jamaica's education system, public safety, the cost of living, and the future of Jamaican business.

This program is not about defending a political party or attacking another.

Even during the initial testing and evaluation phase, it quickly became apparent that it was turning in impressive performances.

The center began using the model results in some of its forecasting tools, notably to make an unprecedented but accurate intensity forecast for Hurricane Melissa as it roared toward Jamaica during the twenty twenty-five season.

In twenty twenty-six, the center fully embraced WeatherNext, incorporating it into the blend of best-performing models it uses to predict a storm's intensity, track, and size.

The WeatherNext model the Hurricane Center vetted in summer twenty twenty-five and is using in again this year compares patterns in the atmosphere during past storms and assesses what new storms could do in similar situations, Franklin said.

Evaluating the model performance over the past two summers, Franklin said the model is far better at predicting hurricane tracks than others, including the official forecast.

"For something to come out of the blue like that and just be the best track forecast guidance, I haven't seen that before," he said.

"It just beats everything." The official forecast is still more commonly the best forecast among the guidance tools, Franklin said, "But you don't want to make a forecast for track unless you see the Google DeepMind." When Hurricane Melissa approached Jamaica in twenty twenty-five, the WeatherNext model helped give the center the confidence to make one of its most aggressive intensity forecasts, accurately predicting the storm's rapid intensification.

"The machine learning models are valuable new tools in our toolbox, but they have not fundamentally changed how we make forecasts," Brennan said.