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Helen Belopolsky

Helen Belopolsky

Dr. Helen Belopolsky is Global Head of Geopolitical Research and Managing Director at Deutsche Bank Research, and host of the Podzept and Rate Check podcasts.

Sep 15, 2026

10:17
And just to understand where that may ultimately go, perhaps we could take a step back and understand, in your view, what is Russia's ultimate objective in Europe? What's the desired end game?
10:29
JJ, now that's a huge question, and I'm not certain Putin himself knows exactly what his end game is.
10:36
That said, he hasn't kept secret his two thousand and seven Munich speech, uh, that he perceives a European security architecture built without Russia as inherently threatening to Russia.
10:50
He's repeatedly argued that Europe's post-Cold War order illegitimately excluded Russia from decisions affecting its own neighborhood.
11:00
What he wants is some sort of recognized sphere of influence over the former Soviet space, not just Ukraine.
11:09
What he wants also is in dispute, uh, with, with Europe.
11:13
Um, every dispute that we've seen over NATO enlargement, missile defense, Ukraine, and now long-range missiles all trace back to this motivation.
15:07
Now, US-UK relations, which have been very strong over many decades have, have also been strained over a number of topics, and for example, if Argentina invades the Falklands or if Russia does act against the UK, do you expect the US to be likely to help, or is the UK more dependent on its European allies?
3:04
So, Helen, what do you think are the biggest sticking points that are going to happen in this negotiation?
3:10
Now, there are a number of sticking points.
3:12
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that we won't see continuation of the normalization, but we have to watch them very closely.
3:18
The first is really around the nuclear stockpile.
3:22
Iran continues to have about 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which they're keen to keep, which the US is much more keen to ensure that they get rid of, particularly given the focus of the US administration on nuclear capabilities of the Iranians as a driver for the military action.
3:43
Control of the Strait of Hormuz, another sticking point.
3:46
Now, we've seen over the course of the past few days, really, a continuation of conflict over the control of the Strait, the reopening of the Strait, and the aftermath math and whether there will be an Iranian control or joint control.
5:16
Could you just outline some of your thinking on that?

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