Haut Conseil des finances publiques

France's net interest costs climbing from about 2% of GDP in 2025 to 3.6% by 2031.

And France's own fiscal watchdog, the High Council of Public Finances, estimates that the recent rise in rates alone adds about 12 billion euros to the state's 2027 bill.

Here's my honest read.

The it's cheap, don't panic argument wasn't wrong.

Second, forecasts that keep sliding.

The 2026 target was originally 4.7% of GDP, was loosened to 5% and is now expected at 5.4%.

For 2027, the fiscal watchdog, the HCFP, has called the government's 1% growth assumption optimistic.

Fitch now projects a 5.5% deficit in 2027, well above the government's 5% target.