
Grant Purdy
Veteran Australian risk management expert who helped write ISO 31000 and co-authored "Deciding"; Director and author at Sufficient Certainty.
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Oct 3, 2026
Resolving Uncertainty in Decision Making
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Grant PurdyGUEST
Well, I, I think the essence of decision-making is resolving uncertainty, and it starts at the very beginning.

Grant PurdyGUEST
Um, one of the things that my colleague Roger Estall, um, who's since died unfortunately, and I put into our book Deciding was, uh, we, uh, made explicit the implicit process that we all use for making decisions.

Grant PurdyGUEST
And we, we said that framing the decision is really important because you need to have clarity on, for example, on what your organization's purpose is.
ISO 31000 - The Lost Way of Risk Management
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Julien HayeHOST
Have we become better at managing risk or simply better at creating the processes and documentations around it? Here is Grant.

Grant PurdyGUEST
Well, I think, look, I've already alluded to the fact there's two streams of thinking there.

Grant PurdyGUEST
I've always been fairly fairly critical about the whole COSO ERM type of thinking, which was quite frankly arose after the collapse of the Enron organization, which took out Arthur Anderson with it at the same time.

Grant PurdyGUEST
And we know that consulting revenues in what was eventually the big four dropped dramatically and the organizations and their sponsors approached COSO to allow them to write a standard.

Grant PurdyGUEST
And that standard was very much about was very much about, I believe, generating income.

Grant PurdyGUEST
If you read the first COSRM standard, I know it's been revised since, it's almost impenetrable.

Grant PurdyGUEST
You couldn't understand it unless you brought a consultant in to help you do that.

Julien HayeHOST
Has a profession become better at managing risk or simply better at documenting it?
Making high-stakes corporate decisions
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Dan ByrneHOST
And when all of this happens, like when decision-making goes wrong, can you think of any examples in the recent past of where it has gone wrong? You're talking about my

Grant PurdyGUEST
I mean, thankfully, there have been some occasions when decisions have gone right or I've been involved and stopped things which would have turned into a disaster.

Grant PurdyGUEST
But invariably, I and my colleague, Roger Astell, we spent a lot of our career going in after poor decisions which have led to catastrophes.

Grant PurdyGUEST
You know, there has been so many out there that mankind has gone through in the last few years.

Grant PurdyGUEST
You know, Challenger in 1986, the Boeing 737 MAX episode, where the FAA assumed that Boeing would be doing its own quality checks.

Grant PurdyGUEST
Boeing assumed that somebody would be training the pilots in the new software they introduced to stop the nose of the plane going up all the time, but actually didn't.
18 MINS LATER

Dan ByrneHOST
So just from that perspective, how would you describe the importance of good risk management in decision making?
ISO 31000, Risk Management & Better Decision-Making with Grant Purdy
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Grant PurdyGUEST
That's a very good question because I'm not sure we knew what that was at the time.

Grant PurdyGUEST
The 31,000 was based very much on the Australian New Zealand standard 4360, which was produced first in 1995, then updated in 1999 and eventually in 2004.

Grant PurdyGUEST
And the real purpose of that standard was to align different ways of risk assessment and risk treatment, as it was called.

Grant PurdyGUEST
It didn't associate itself with anything other than the creation of information which could be used for decision making.
22 MINS LATER

Julien HayeHOST
Where do you think they stand in the context of what you just said? Because practically they're pushing for something that could lead to the opposite outcome of what they're looking for.