Golden Week

So currently, market fundamentals remain soft, underpinned by long supply driven by healthy exports from South Korea.

Consistent outflows from South Korea have also been adding to a supply glut, which has weighed on the market since China resumed refining product exports following a brief suspension during the Golden Week holiday.

On the demand front, expensive freight has thinned buying interest, compounding already subdued demand, limited regional shorts, and this has been reflected in the spot discounts for cargoes loading from Singapore and South Korea.

Moving forward, however, the market could find support as heating demand from Japan picks up.

So that's, Trump and Xi will be meeting in Sichuan, China in the middle of November for APEC.

I think the Chinese want to be somewhere between 22 and 23 million metric tons heading into that meeting, so there may be some residual left for late November, December, but China has been really active after the Golden Week holiday.

I've got them buying a little over 4 million metric tons in that two-week time frame, so they've really gotten at it in terms of buying U.S. beans.

Dan, is it all politically motivated? Or are they buying on fear of El Nino in South America?

And last week was a big week for soybean export sales.

The USDA says those sales were considerably larger than average thanks to strong demand from China as Beijing resumed buying after the Golden Week holiday.

That's at least partially due to seasonal trends and China pushing to get closer to its pledged purchase total ahead of more trade negotiations next month.

Corn, pork, cotton, and rice were also up on the week and above average.

better margins have pushed refinery runs back up, particularly for diesel amid the global supply shortage, and have since encouraged refiners to increase runs, supporting a recovery in crude imports.

Domestic demand is getting other boosts too, such as Golden Week, a major Chinese holiday period when millions of people travel, increasing demand for gasoline and jet fuel.

Now, Shanghai crude futures are above Brent for the first time since May.

On September 16, the October Shanghai crude contract traded at a record 838.6 yuan-slash-barrels, or about $123 per barrel, compared with roughly $106 per barrel for Brent, a premium of about $17 per barrel.

I caught up with Neil Wilson, editor of TAC Index, the calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight Indices, to take us through the latest numbers.

China's factory shutdowns for Golden Week at the start of October tend to hit both ocean and air volumes higher.

So I started by asking Neil where the main global index stands now, just after Golden Week, what it's telling us as we hit the traditional peak season, as we should probably refer to it.

So the BAIOO, which is our global composite, if you like, average of outbounds weighted, it did show a slight drop in the latest week, which was the golden week period, which is not unusual, exactly as you say, you know, factor shutdowns and there's less volume for a short period.

But it shows that rates are still pretty firm.

They're 24.3% up year on year as we enter the traditional peak season period for air cargo, which is in the run up to Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas in Europe.

This is your co-host Lei Xing, founder of AutoXing and former chief editor of China Auto Review, and this is episode 264.

Yes, China is on golden week holiday.

which means things slow down a little bit.

A little bit.