Global Forecast System
58
MENTIONS
10
EPISODES
8
PODCASTS
Search complete. 58 mentions across 10 episodes found for "Global Forecast System".
Oct 8, 2026
James BriertonHOST
And we're not really close enough yet that the HRRR is gonna be much play yet.
James BriertonHOST
Um, but let's just do the GFS, okay? Right, I guess.
James BriertonHOST
And so we can see as we work our way through Thursday, through Friday.
James BriertonHOST
Uh, let me switch this off of preset mode back over.
James BriertonHOST
Reflectivity.
James BriertonHOST
All right, so here comes the storm moving its way towards, uh, the Gulf Coast.
James BriertonHOST
Again, we're looking kinda here, uh, at a center of circulation that's gonna make landfall again, give or take Pensacola, right? This is 4:00 AM on Saturday looking at the GFS.
James BriertonHOST
Let's back it up.
Tim LubyGUEST
I'd never do something like that.
Tim LubyGUEST
So you have HRRR short term, you have GFS, which is more of the longterm forecast.
Tim LubyGUEST
And that casts a really wide net.
Tim LubyGUEST
It's a more sloppy system.
Jennifer RobbinsCORRESPONDENT
By the time we get into Thursday, it's still south of the islands.
Jennifer RobbinsCORRESPONDENT
And then Friday is still south of the islands, according to the GFS weather model.
Jennifer RobbinsCORRESPONDENT
So it's that front right quadrant.
Jennifer RobbinsCORRESPONDENT
It's closest approach to us sometime Friday into Saturday.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
So we've got two long-range models.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
The European model brings the solution much closer to us, while the GFS takes the impacts up through New England.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
But what we know right now is that we've got some rain likely down the shore at times.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
We'll continue to get into more of those specifics coming up in that exclusive AccuWeather 70 forecast.
27 MINS LATER
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
16 to 22-foot waves are possible, just showing the magnitude of what could be a powerful nor'easter this weekend.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
Model discrepancies still continue, so what we look for as meteorologists is consensus, and what we don't have is a whole lot of that right now.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
There's about a 250-mile spread between the GFS and the European model.
Peyton DomschkePANELIST
The European solution brings things a little bit closer to us, increasing that wind field as well as that rain threat, The GFS is the better opportunity to take it well away from us and impact more of New England than us here locally.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
Midnight.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
It was Big Jump West by the GFS.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
What does
Boomer EsiasonHOST
GFS stand for?
Gregg GiannottiHOST
The GFS is the American model.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
Oh,
Boomer EsiasonHOST
we're talking about the American model.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
It's the Euro model.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
Midnight.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
It was Big Jump West by the GFS.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
What does
Boomer EsiasonHOST
GFS stand for?
Gregg GiannottiHOST
The GFS is the American model.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
Oh, we're talking
Boomer EsiasonHOST
about
Gregg GiannottiHOST
It's the Euro model.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
Midnight.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
It was Big Jump West by the GFS.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
What does
Boomer EsiasonHOST
GFS stand for?
Gregg GiannottiHOST
The GFS is the American model.
Gregg GiannottiHOST
Oh, we're talking
Boomer EsiasonHOST
about
Gregg GiannottiHOST
It's the Euro model.
Dan LeonardGUEST
It's been the champion of medium and long-range weather forecasting.
Dan LeonardGUEST
On the American side, we have what we call the GFS model.
Dan LeonardGUEST
It's been through different iterations over the years.
Dan LeonardGUEST
Now it's called the GFS.
Dan LeonardGUEST
But essentially, it's always played second fiddle to the ECMWF.
Dan LeonardGUEST
And most meteorologists have grown to know over the years that you use the GFS over the euro at your own peril.
Dan LeonardGUEST
Now...
Dan LeonardGUEST
Lately, there's been a lot of significant shifts in the meteorological industry, mostly tied to AI.
Bill ReadHOST
Of more interest is it shows a few lines down here in the Gulf of Mexico which normally I wouldn't even, I just say they show up late in the forecast, so I would normally just not even say anything.
Bill ReadHOST
But both the physics models, ECMWF and GFS, also show something northwest Caribbean Gulf of Mexico time frame area in that same time frame.
Bill ReadHOST
So we'll have, not for now, but for later on, we'll look at that.
Bill ReadHOST
The CPC folks had put out a two and three week outlook.
Steve AtwalHOST
For most of the last two decades, hurricane forecasting improved slowly and predictably.
Steve AtwalHOST
Physics-based models like the Global Forecast System, built by government meteorologists and run on supercomputers, simulate the atmosphere using equations for wind, moisture, and heat.
Steve AtwalHOST
They got a little better every year, and forecasters trusted them because their errors were well understood.
Steve AtwalHOST
Then, during the twenty twenty-five Atlantic hurricane season, something unusual happened.
Steve AtwalHOST
A former branch chief at the National Hurricane Center, James Franklin, reviewed the results and said the AI model was the best guidance forecasters saw all year.
Steve AtwalHOST
The clearest example came in October with a storm named Hurricane Melissa.
Steve AtwalHOST
The American Global Forecast System badly mishandled Melissa, predicting the storm would curve out to sea when it never did, ballooning its five-day track error to more than five hundred miles.
Steve AtwalHOST
The AI model did something the National Hurricane Center had never done before.