
Gary Smith
Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College; author and economist specializing in financial markets, statistics, and AI criticism.
2
APPEARANCES
2
PODCASTS
012
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MAY 4
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OCT 5
Jun 20, 2026
The Evaporating Promise of AGI: An Economist’s View
17:08
17:16
17:23
17:36
17:45

Gary SmithGUEST
"But by training something to be really good at predicting the next word, you're actually forcing it to understand." Well, that, that's com- [chuckles] that's...

Gary SmithGUEST
It's assuming what he's trying to prove, and the fact that you can predict the next word in a sentence doesn't mean you understand what the words mean.

Gary SmithGUEST
Uh, it, it's just a fundamental misunderstanding, and the consequence of that is these large language models are really good, or AI in general, really good at finding statistical correlations, finding statistical patterns.

Gary SmithGUEST
But in terms of separating the wheat from the shaft, separating the ones that are useful from the ones that are just coincidental, temporary correlations, they have no...

Gary SmithGUEST
There's absolutely no way to do that because, again, they don't understand what the words mean.
48 MINS LATER
Mind Over Models: An Economist’s Take on AI Speculation
17:23
17:33
17:40

Gary SmithGUEST
But by training something to be really good at predicting the next word, you're actually forcing it to understand.

Gary SmithGUEST
And the fact that you can predict the next word in a sentence doesn't mean you understand what the words mean.

Gary SmithGUEST
And the consequence of that is these large language models are really good, or AI in general, really good at finding statistical correlations, finding statistical patterns, but in terms of separating the wheat from the chaff, separating the ones that are useful from the ones that are just coincidental temporary correlations, there's absolutely no way to do that because, again, they don't understand what the words mean.
48 MINS LATER
