Fiscal policy
55
MENTIONS
23
EPISODES
22
PODCASTS
Search complete. 55 mentions across 23 episodes found for "Fiscal policy".
Sep 11, 2026
Paul DonovanGUEST
The committees and the, the very powerful committee chairs would be Democrat.
Paul DonovanGUEST
Um, what that would lead to, I think, is effective gridlock on fiscal policy.
Paul DonovanGUEST
Um, and in that sense, what we are talking about is possibly some fiscal stimulus actually, because you, you may extend tax cuts and so on, but you're not gonna really tackle the fiscal policy one way or another.
Paul DonovanGUEST
You, uh, Trump is not going to sign off on, um, uh, dramatic, um, uh, tax increases, and the Democrats are not going to go along with dramatic spending cuts.
Paul DonovanGUEST
So you just end up with a freezing, which actually markets, you know, at least find relatively predictable.
Paul DonovanGUEST
It, it's very unusual.
Paul DonovanGUEST
This is not normal behavior.
Paul DonovanGUEST
And so I think the, the main international issue, it's not so much that you get a, a, you know, a paralysis of, of US government in terms of fiscal policy or even that the, the, the Fed's balance of power tilts one way or another.
Richard HaassGUEST
We are affected by what goes on elsewhere.
Scarlett FuHOST
Let's talk about fiscal policy, because today, you know, collectively, we're seeing the bond market and economists, um, sending warning signals about the national debt-
Richard HaassGUEST
Sure
Scarlett FuHOST
... more than $40 trillion.
speaker_0HOST
Warsh's potential for a hike given sticky inflation has created an environment where bond yields are reacting sharply.
speaker_0HOST
According to Goldman Sachs' insights on how inflation and fiscal policy are driving U.S. Treasury markets, the structural factors at play include persistent inflationary pressures tied to fiscal spending and supply-side constraints.
speaker_0HOST
These are not transitory forces, and they're keeping the Fed on high alert.
speaker_0HOST
The fixed income repricing is also influenced by Treasury buyback dynamics.
KatiePANELIST
So a bond sell-off hitting the whole global economy at the same time and not just the US or the UK.
KatiePANELIST
And the real story here is fiscal anxiety, if you like.
KatiePANELIST
So Fiscal refers to government spending and borrowing and investors are doubting that government can control their deficits.
KatiePANELIST
So there's too much new debt and the older, cheaper debt is rolling over at four or 5%.
KatiePANELIST
There's no credible plan to fix the problem.
Ira JerseyHOST
So then, you know, in the last couple of minutes here, let's talk a little bit then about your forecast for next year.
Ira JerseyHOST
So, you know, you have to there's a lot of obviously there's uncertain paths for a lot of these things, whether it's fiscal policy or monetary policy and the like.
Ira JerseyHOST
But so what is Barclays view over the next, say, to the end of 2027 in terms of, you know, growth, inflation and and any activity from the Bank of England?
Jack MeaningGUEST
Yeah.
Michael ZezasHOST
Got it.
Michael ZezasHOST
And there's also a couple of important considerations around fiscal policy, funding the National Defense Authorization Act.
Michael ZezasHOST
Can you talk us through that a bit?
Ariana SalvatoreHOST
Yeah.
David RosenbergGUEST
We weren't talking about deficits back in February when the 10-year note was 3.97.
David RosenbergGUEST
So you're telling me in the past four months, we've discovered fiscal policy is a problem.
David RosenbergGUEST
That's not what's driven yields up 60 basis points.
David RosenbergGUEST
That's not a new story.
David RosenbergGUEST
I mean, FDR never did that during the New Deal.
David RosenbergGUEST
But the thing is that this all comes to an end on November the 3rd, because we're going to have a split government.
David RosenbergGUEST
Fund of games with fiscal policy.
David RosenbergGUEST
It's going to be fiscal gridlock for two years.
Rich ExcelHOST
And so I think it combined with what we talked about before.
Rich ExcelHOST
a tighter Fed until we can get a tighter fiscal policy might be the response we're looking for.
Rich ExcelHOST
But it all kind of lends to this idea of the debasement, which is not just you see in the US dollar, but here I've kind of got the combined monetary and fiscal versus the two vehicles people have been using most of late in terms of the debasement trade, which is both gold and Bitcoin.
Rich ExcelHOST
And we can see that certainly around COVID, when we saw the spike in, you know, after the financial crisis, we saw the spike in both monetary and fiscal.
Nicolaie Alexandru-ChidesciucHOST
Demand conditions are disinflationary.
Nicolaie Alexandru-ChidesciucHOST
You also mentioned that fiscal policy is disinflationary.
Nicolaie Alexandru-ChidesciucHOST
I don't recall, Hamza, if you mentioned this one, but I would guess it's similar.
Nicolaie Alexandru-ChidesciucHOST
Fiscal policy is also disinflationary.
Khamza SharifzodaGUEST
Fiscal policy historically has played a more inflationary role, right? Because in this kind of a setup, fiscal has aimed to bring growth 5% or above.
Khamza SharifzodaGUEST
But this year, we had adopted a budget that saw significant fiscal consolidation, raising VAT, expanding tax measures, the broadening of the base.
Khamza SharifzodaGUEST
But next year, it's a separate discussion.
10 MINS LATER
Fatih AkcelikGUEST
and hence lower oil and gas prices, right? It doesn't help energy and food prices in Turkish domestic market.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
But yeah, in terms of inflation, the pressure points are there.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
The thing that we probably look at as much as anything to gauge that is in confidence in the us dollar as such so uh we're not big believers that there's a broad-based debasement of the us dollar or this this narrative of de-dollarization uh because there's there's not necessarily a lot of other options for uh markets to go to uh But when we look at the US dollar, it is sending signals that there are concerns about credibility in terms of monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
And those things do matter a lot to the bond market and to yields and ultimately to inflation.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
So they're the things that we've really got our eyes on.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
What you're seeing is a change, a structural change that's occurred over a number of years, but a 30 year period where yields and interest rates were falling is now being reversed and we've seen the uptrend come through.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
And I spoke about CapEx and savings, but in the background, there's a whole lot of other policies besides central bank policy that markets focus on and are interested in, in terms of gauging credibility and basically getting confidence to put their money to work.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
Fiscal policy, yes.
Adam DonaldsonGUEST
There's a lot of debt out there.
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