Federal funds rate
66
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29
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23
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Search complete. 66 mentions across 29 episodes found for "Federal funds rate".
Oct 30, 2026
Jay HatfieldGUEST
Hyperscaler spending was all known because this all gets announced every quarter.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
And then the Fed Fund futures sold off 150 base points.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
Treasury yields sold off 125, which is pretty lockstep there.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
But then there was some doubt whether Fed fund futures are right.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
And it went down to five and low and bold.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
We're trading exactly a hundred over where most people think the Fed's going to stop, which is one increase, including all their own dot plots.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
No, you cut rates.
Jay HatfieldGUEST
And then two months later, you started talking really hawkish.
Chris NaghibiHOST
according to the latest poll there.
Chris NaghibiHOST
Again, Kalshi does differ a little bit from the Fed Funds futures market, which also tracks this as well as some of the places.
Chris NaghibiHOST
And there's your 10-year treasury down about five basis points just today alone, 494 below the 5% number, which again, I still think it's going to pop back above 5%.
Chris NaghibiHOST
That's just my humble thoughts here.
21 MINS LATER
Chris NaghibiHOST
You know, it's just prudent decision making, right? Like if you make a decision like the Fed did and increase rates literally about 45, now 46, 47 days ago, it's fine to wait, you know, an additional 45 days.
Chris NaghibiHOST
It's not going to hurt anything.
Chris NaghibiHOST
You've been over the Fed funds rate for five, almost six years.
Chris NaghibiHOST
But the counter argument to that is using the exact same facts.
Ryan HuangHOST
I'm Ryan Huang.
Ryan HuangHOST
Wall Street just notched its third straight winning day as investors brushed off the latest Federal Reserve rate decision and also digest the latest in tech earnings.
Ryan HuangHOST
A bit of a divergence between Alphabet and Microsoft.
Ryan HuangHOST
So let's dive into the latest with Steve Sosnick.
Kevin HincksGUEST
So it was strong, but not overheating.
Kevin HincksGUEST
That allowed, as the Fed Fund's future spelled out, him to hold interest rates.
Kevin HincksGUEST
Think about this.
Kevin HincksGUEST
If Kevin Warsh would have raised interest rates yesterday, which some people were calling for, with a 9% probability of it happening in the futures, the market would have taken that as extremely volatile, and volatility would have set in.
Kevin HincksGUEST
So it's important that we understand, just like when he raised interest rates, because the Fed Fund's future was telling him that was a high probability.
Kevin HincksGUEST
This one was as close to zero as you can get with below 10%.
Kevin HincksGUEST
So I think Kevin Walsh did the responsible thing.
Joe MantoneHOST
And we'll be discussing that research today and also talking about the outlook for deal making.
Joe MantoneHOST
And we will also touch on Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
Joe MantoneHOST
So to kind of get things started here, Nick, could you maybe go over a little bit of some of the deal activity that we saw in the third quarter that will be highlighted in the upcoming research paper?
Nick LazzaroGUEST
Yeah, Joe, absolutely.
Christina MarouhosHOST
PCE inflation data is expected to show the core PCE price index quickened to 3.1% in September, while GDP growth likely accelerated to 3.2% annualized rate in the third quarter.
Christina MarouhosHOST
Stronger readings than the forecasts could undo yesterday's modest unwinding seen in Fed Fund futures.
Christina MarouhosHOST
Not that the dollar needs any additional support these days, as either hot data or a risk-off seem to give it a leg up.
Christina MarouhosHOST
The euro, on the other hand, has been hammered these past two months on worries about the impact of the ongoing energy crisis on the eurozone economy and doubts about France's ability to get a grip on burgeoning government borrowing.
Kenny PolcariHOST
I would agree.
Kenny PolcariHOST
So, but I do think, or at least the Fed Fund futures is suggesting a 94% chance of a December hike.
Kenny PolcariHOST
Yeah.
Kenny PolcariHOST
And while I understand that that's what the market thinks, I'm not necessarily sure that a 25 base point hike in December really does anything anyway.
Christina MarouhosHOST
Dollar traders are slowly shifting their attention to the FOMC gathering that starts today with a decision scheduled to be announced tomorrow.
Christina MarouhosHOST
The committee is largely expected to remain sidelined tomorrow, with Fed Funds futures pointing to only a 10% chance of a rate hike.
Christina MarouhosHOST
That said, this doesn't make the meeting unimportant as investors are assigning a strong 90% chance of a December rate increase, while around 70 basis points worth of rate hikes are baked into the cake by the end of 2027.
Christina MarouhosHOST
Therefore, with inflation further accelerating in September, investors will scrutinize the statement and Warsh's press conference for clues about whether a December hike is firmly on the table and whether officials remain willing to continue raising interest rates in 2027.
Mike PearsonHOST
What's the trade expecting here when the Fed meets later this week?
Darin NewsomGUEST
According to the Fed Fund futures forward curve, there will be no rate hike or cut this time around.
Darin NewsomGUEST
Right now, it's showing, again, should hold steady.
Darin NewsomGUEST
And then there is no meeting in November.
George GammonHOST
Yeah.
George GammonHOST
Jim, do you remember what Fed Funds was in the late 90s?
Jim BiancoGUEST
Yes, it was.
Jim BiancoGUEST
It got to about six right before 9-11 because that's what you're asking.
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