Expected value

Technically, you should call because you only need to be right a certain percentage of the time to be profitable in that specific situation, but theory against practice is very, very different.

That was when expected value stopped being just a phrase to me and something more that I could act on.

So you're not trying to win the hand.

You're not trying to win every single hand you play.

And you would optimize only for hitting your exact profit targets and then using a risk management technique that benefits your profit factor the most.

But on a prop firm environment, that's not what we're optimizing for.

We're optimizing for the expected value of our account.

So first, what I would do is I would look at the specific prop firm rules and I would see if I win X amount on my account, how much am I going to get in terms of payouts over the lifetime of this account? Will I be moved to live? What is my risk of ruin? A bunch of different statistics that are going to tell me what is the optimal value to win on my specific prop firm account.