European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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Yeah, it's fascinating.

These global models from NOAA CFS model, the ECMWF seasonal outlooks, the UK Med and other sources that are out there from the various med agencies, these are traditional weather models.

These are the old school non-AI weather models that predicted this super El Nino back in the spring.

The AI frontier has been very interesting.

They're very focused on the short to medium range right now, and I think that's a very important area.

They're filling in a lot of gaps in the short to medium range, whereas you don't have enough resolution or detail from hour to hour, and they've been able to kind of fill in those gaps.

There's some exciting work that the ECMWF is doing over there in the EU in terms of using AI to better improve initial conditions of a weather model.

where there's typically gaps in our weather database, and they're able to use that information, AI, to actually create more credible estimates of missing data, essentially.

A few times I'd look at the things and met Aaron would show the following day an easterly wind.

When other charts are shown, a westerly or south-west, and you kind of go, where am I out here and coming out of this with an easterly? And lo and behold, the following morning, they were light easterly there, you know, and so you build up your trust, you know, I mean, trust is something that has to be built on, so, but they're using the ECMWF, the European Centre of Medium Range Forecast Models now and stuff like that, so their short range is very good.

Windy is only an app, but that's using the weather models.

It's using the UK Met Office and it's using the German DWD.

And especially probably Pakistan and India will be you can imagine they'd be hit pretty hard.

This projection uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to estimate how many more people than usual could die as a result of heat in the southern hemisphere caused by El Nino.

And they've gone for the sort of middle in the range of possibilities.

So it represents a moderate view of what could happen.

And they will actually get better as we go, you know, as they take in observations and what actually happens in the atmosphere.

So your YR looks at a weather model called ECMWF, which is a really good weather model.

And they actually downscale it as well.

So when it comes to rainfall...

I would look at YR, to be honest.

And they are not, you know, we also look at the ECMWF model, and then we interpret our own knowledge to that forecast.

That just makes us a bit different to just your normal model output like YR.

Okay.

That's what I just told you, what the GFS was saying.

So there's the ECMWF.

That's the

European model.

It comes from Peter Dubin, Peter Bauer, Oliver Fuhrer, Nikolai Koldunov and Jeroen Christensen.

And I mean, these are researchers representing heavy hitters like ECMWF and the Max Planck Institute.

Right.

So we should definitely be paying attention to this.

The data layer comes first.

Global models, the American GFS, the European ECMWF, those provide the background.

They're running at 9 kilometers or 25 kilometers per grid cell.

That's fine for continental scale patterns, but useless for a construction site.

meteorologist right here right now and i'm asking you what do you think this thing's gonna do by wednesday thursday next week

And I'm looking at the two models that I typically will look at for longer range projections are the European, which is the ECMWF, that stands for the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting.

And it does have a pretty good track record.

The storm, it wants to generate a storm down by like Manzanillo and south of Puerto Vallarta and kind of brings it up close to Puerto Vallarta.