Ethiopian National Defense Force

One is that it would be wrong to underestimate it to the degree that it expands the geographic scope of these insurgencies.

They don't really have a central command center, but by fighting together, they can spread out the military, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, and therefore make it more difficult for them to really contain it.

But at the same time, as you hint, these are people that have almost nothing in common except their antipathy towards the Abiy government.

The Amhara are locked in this bitter territorial dispute with the Tigrayans.

The authorities, the federal authorities could overrun the Tigrayan defences, take over Mekele and then impose their own writ.

On that city, that might see the TPLF withdraw into the mountains, try and mount a guerrilla campaign.

Another alternative is that the alliance, Tigrayan and Amhara, with some support from the Romo and Afar rebels, could also push back the military, which would be a big setback for Prime Minister Abiy and would probably for the first time place him under considerable political pressure in the centre.

And then the third option, major possibility is that you just have a grinding, ongoing insurgency and a continuing effort by the authorities to overcome it, which will sap Ethiopia's economy, which will cost an immense amount, not just for the combatants, but for the many civilians who live there.

One is that it would be wrong to underestimate it to the degree that it expands the geographic scope of these insurgencies.

They don't really have a central command center, but by fighting together, they can spread out the military, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, and therefore make it more difficult for them to really contain it.

But at the same time, as you hint, these are people that have almost nothing in common except their antipathy towards the Abiy government.

The Amhara are locked in this bitter territorial dispute with the Tigrayans.

The authorities, the federal authorities could overrun the Tigrayan defenses, take over Mekele and then impose their own writ.

On that city, that might see the TPLF withdraw into the mountains, try and mount a guerrilla campaign.

Another alternative is that the alliance, Tigrayan and Amhara, with some support from the Romo and Afar rebels, could also push back the military, which would be a big setback for Prime Minister Abiy and would... probably for the first time, placed him under considerable political pressure in the center.

And then the third major possibility is that you just have a grinding, ongoing insurgency and a continuing effort by the authorities to overcome it, which will sap Ethiopia's economy, which will cost an immense amount, not just for the combatants, but for the many civilians who live in these areas which are being turned into battlefields.

And unlike in the past, it expanded the scope of the conflict.

In the past, it was mainly between the TPLF forces and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces.

Now, some major, major realignments have taken place and shifting of alliances have also appeared.

And now it is seven plus gurus on one side and the Ethiopian government with some international help on the other side.

Over the last couple of months, there's been something of a creeping war, an undeclared conflict with low level skirmishes and a few clashes and drone strikes between the Tigray Defense Forces under the TPLF and the federal government of Addis Ababa.

And this crossed a threshold in the last week, and there were more clashes than battles, but fighting in four different locations on the borders of Tigray between Tigrayan forces allied with some of their former enemies in the Amhara region there, the Fano insurgency, and a group in Afar on the eastern side against Ethiopian National Defense Forces, another Tigrayan group, the Tigray Peace Force, that is more aligned with Addis Ababa and other sundry forces aligned with the government.

There had been a peace deal in place before this.

What's the broader background to this conflict?

It's quite clear siding, if you like.

Internally, for example, in today's and yesterday's conflict, the ENDF, the Ethiopian military, the Tigray Peace Forces, the Amhara anti-riot forces, police forces, and local militias are on one side, while the TDF, the Tigray Defense Forces, is together with the Amhara Fanon National Movement, IFNM, And they are fighting with the government.

The two are part of the new alliances, which was established on Sunday.

In other parts of the region, we are keeping an eye.

They argue that returning it to Tigray was part of an arrangement that was supposed to settle this issue years ago, known as the Praetoria Agreement.

To keep a really long story short, the first iteration of the Tigray War, between the Tigray TPLF on one side and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and their allies on the other, began in 2020.

That war followed a concerted effort to reduce the TPLF's influence across Ethiopia.

The Tigray had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades, and their rule had become extremely unpopular, which led to massive protests in 2015 and the resignation of the Prime Minister at the time.