Ethiopia–Tigray peace agreement

The TPLF also entered this war as a shadow of its former self.

After the Pretoria Agreement ended the last Tigray war in 2022, the TPLF handed over its heavy weapons to the Ethiopian army under the watchful eye of African Union observers.

Additionally, TPLF soldiers signed up for the demobilization program with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP, reporting in July this year that around 63,000 people had completed it.

Although the program's stalled progress allowed the TPLF to start rebuilding again, they never got the same level of recruits as last time, even before the Tigray Peace Forces split off from them.

I thought there was peace now, and why are we seeing a renewed, like, conflict?

S- the incident in, so the mediation led by former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo was able to transmit into what is now known as the Pretoria Agreement that brought two years of fighting between Ethiopia and its northern region, Tigray, into, um, a peace deal and then ended the fighting.

Uh, in 2020, so fighting erupted, in 2020 rather, fighting erupted between Abiy's government, so the current prime minister of Ethiopia is known as Abiy Ahmed, came into power in 2018.

Uh, he's Oromo.

Tigray was looking for independence, you know.

So Obasanjo's agreement basically put a stop to it.

Now, if you fast-forward to 2026, a couple of things have been happening in the background because if you ask anybody, um, especially in Tigray, they will tell you that- Many of the provisions by the Pretoria agreements have not been implemented by, uh, A-Addis Ababa.

What the Tigray simply did was, you know, I told you that when they were in government between 1991 and 2018, most of the other ethnic groups in the region, the Amharas, um, the Oromo, and several other ones really did not, were not happy with Tigrayan rule.

Pierce describes Abiy as an unusual figure, a Nobel laureate who styled himself after Silicon Valley CEOs, promised freedom, and delivered surveillance and high-tech warfare with a habit of making flashy handshake deals without working out the fundamentals.

The twenty twenty-two Pretoria Agreement, Pierce notes, never settled the status of Eritrean troops in Tigray, never restored self-government to the region, and never allowed it to participate in the June elections that extended Abiy's rule.

Pierce argues that Ethiopia nonetheless matters to the United States.

It is Africa's second-most populous country, a potentially lucrative trade partner, and, uh, crucially, offers air range over Red Sea shipping lanes at a moment when Yemen's Houthis have the upper hand.

After contagion in the Arabian Peninsula, should the entire Horn of Africa fear a domino effect? Just as Don Trump's decision to invade Iran drew the Saudis back to Yemen, did threats over the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb light the fuse in Ethiopia, where last week unresolved issues between the government and its Tigray region erupted? Could a potential return to civil war join regional rivals? Ethiopia didn't need pressure over the Red Sea to ignite the breakdown of dialogue after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement was always going to be a ticking time bomb for Africa's second most populous nation, home to many other rebel movements.

And in four years, alliances have shifted.

With neighboring Eritrea no longer on Abiy Ahmed's side, and Addis Ababa accusing Egypt and Sudan of supporting TPLF rebels.

And after two days, it has escalated at the same level as the previous war.

And that's why you see it on the news now.

Yeah, this 2022 Pretoria Agreement putting an end to two years of brutal civil war, but it wasn't a peace treaty as such.

It was billed as a transitional plan.

Now, as was just said, comes this announcement, this formation of what the rebels are calling an alliance for survival with seven groups within it, as Jalal was explaining earlier.

But for peace building, it's not going to bring anything.

The renewed violence has shattered the fragile 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended two years of war.

The deal defied the critical issue of contested territories, such as Western Tigray, to future political dialogue, leaving deep grievances unaddressed.

Ethiopian President Taya Selassie laid the blame on outside forces.