Eric Grenier

There is an election there tomorrow.

We had Eric Grenier on about it yesterday.

It seems that the most strange outcome could happen.

No one would have foreseen this two months ago, that the B.C. Conservatives may win.

We're at 45 minutes, so let's move ahead.

How do you think it's going to go? And not just broadly, but like, I mean, 338 and Eric Grenier both have a conservative majority as the most likely scenario, somewhere between 53 and 57 seats, possibly higher, possibly lower.

And the NDP targeting 33 to 38, again, with some range.

And the Greens looking at two, maybe three, with Victoria Beaconhill suddenly in play on the 3.38 projection, which seems incorrect, but who knows?

What will they look like? Will they go beyond the signaling language and get at initiatives that can make a difference? We'll have to wait and see, and we will cover it all.

But when we come back, we're going to talk to our friend Eric Grenier because there is yet another election in Canada, an important one.

It's happening in British Columbia.

The vote is on Saturday.

And Eric Grenier from The Writ will tell us where things stand as B.C. heads to the polls to determine who will be their next premier.

Stand by for that here on the Tim Power Show.

Well, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will be enjoying their Saturday, October 24th.

Right.

But [laughs] that four-point polling gap has been a feature of the campaign from the beginning, and according to Eric Grenier's models, that may well translate into a nine-seat majority on election day.

All right.

Well, a week until the BC election, but of course, on Monday, October 19th, Albertans are going to the polls to vote in a referendum on whether to eventually have a referendum, I guess, over [laughs] separation.

Uh, TBD if, uh, if Danielle Smith gets the, uh, Kenney treatment as we move toward the, uh, UCP's AGM in, uh, November.

November.Yeah, and a few data points to ground the conversation.

First, 28%, according to Eric Grenier's poll tracker, this is the support level for separation among decided voters.

And the second number is 60%, the share of people who are voting yes, but who, who just wanna send the federal government a message rather than actually separate.

Um, and our guess, uh, polling aggregation at 338Canada has the BC Conservatives leading 44 to the NDP's 40, with 11 for the Greens.

Uh, while Eric Grenier's seat projection as of October 7th is showing a slim majority government for the BC Conservatives-

Hmm

... leading in 40 seat- 47 seats to the NDP's 44, with 2 for the, 2 for the Greens.

Back in a moment.

You'll remember that we had Eric Grenier from The Writ on Monday, and he was talking about some new numbers that had come out, a bunch of different polls.

He aggregated them, or sorry, he correlated them, better word, the appropriate word, and he's put them on his homepage, the RID, and according to his current correlating of polls, the Parti Quebecois is at about 30.1%, the Liberals 22.1%, the Conservatives 19.3%.

In the seat projections, that has the Parti Quebecois at 68 seats, which means in Quebec...

We've never actually had an election in the history of Canada where every single party failed to get 30% of the vote.

Eric Grenier is the founder of thewrit.ca, a political blog.

The PQ secured a minority government with 28% of the popular vote.

The Coalition Avenir Québec, the party in power for the last eight years, was wiped out.

And we want to convince people who are still not sure, so we'll go giving 100%.

Polling analyst Eric Grenier with the RIT.ca says if the Parti Quebecois goes all the way, it could be a big change.

The PQ has been on the decline for the last 20 years, and this will be the first time that they are in a position to win an election with a majority and on the promise of holding a referendum.

He says even though support to separate from Canada is at an all-time low in Quebec, there are five competitive parties in the race splitting up the vote.