So instead of just asking you if the polls are gonna be right, because I know that you don't know the answer to that question, what I want to ask about is when polls move late and they show this October move in one direction, what do you think is happening? Is it a change in opinion? Is it people who were always gonna vote for one candidate or another, but just felt like saying undecided 'cause they didn't want to talk about it? Is it a new electorate picking up the phone? Like, what is happening in these last two or three weeks that, that, that changes those things?

Yeah.

So I mean, I do think you can get some, a lot of voters sort of quote unquote coming home to their party.

You know, people might be unhappy with their party that they usually vote for or maybe there was some sort of contentious primary on their side and their less favorite candidate won, but you know, when push comes to shove, they will sort of begrudgingly go and vote for their own party at a certain point.

You know, I think also we're now getting to the point where people are actually voting, and so we're starting to get, you know, people taking polls who have actually already voted, whereas, you know, a few-- And that's only gonna sort of increase over the next few weeks.

So I mean, I think, I'm not sure it's necessarily a different electorate getting reached.

I think, you know, polls really are just kind of a snapshot, and that's why we have to do a lot of stuff in our model to use those to make some sort of forecast.

Other than that.

Do Democrats have a prayer in Florida statewide? What does the model say?

Well, okay, so the model says probably not.

With the Senate at the moment, we give Democrats about a twenty percent chance of winning.

Uh, the gubernatorial election is actually a little less.

It's about fifteen percent.

Personally, I-- if I was giving you my gut, I'd probably go even lower than that.

I'm very, very skeptical on Democrats' chances in Florida.

There's like, what, something like thirty pollsters in the last year or something, new pollsters in the last year?