Donbas

Absolutely, he got away with going into Georgia under Bush.

He got away with going into Crimea and the Donbass under Obama.

He got away with trying to decapitate Kiev under Biden.

I understand all that.

But we always, right from the beginning, you know, when the Russians were camped out outside Kiev, we said that people are looking at the wrong place.

The really important place is Donbass.

This is where the crisis is going to be decided.

And that is the major area of Russian concern.

Well, one agreement could be freeze everybody in place.

right, allow the Russians to claim that they now can take and hold all those parts of the Donbas they are now in.

The Ukrainians would not recognize that in any legal way as Russian territory, but it would sort of be like the territory that North Korea grabbed, you know, at the end from the armistice.

in the 1950s.

If true, that would mean more Russian soldiers likely died in Ukraine last month than the total number of Soviet troops killed across a decade of war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Despite sending endless troops into risky infiltration assaults attempting to capture the remaining parts of the Donbas region still in Ukrainian hands, the front line in Ukraine is barely moving.

And when it does move, it's not even always in the direction that Russia wants, with Kyiv recently liberating several hundred square kilometers of territory.

In short, Russia's losses are skyrocketing just as its territorial gains plummet.

In World War II, America's deadliest battle in the Pacific, Okinawa, saw under 13,000 US troops killed, with tens of thousands more wounded.

But in return for their bloodshed, US forces managed to occupy Okinawa and actually bring the war one step closer to the end.

Russia's troops, by contrast, mostly died last month for a few meters of muddy Donbas fields.

The huge spike in deaths is driven by several distinct factors.

But if you actually go across the whole front line, you'll find the only thing that they have right now are the resources to really force their way right into that one location.

And also at the exact same time, Operation Vivaldi is going on, right? I was in Sviatohirsk, which is in Donbass, where Putin had claimed to already be, or his army, There was no Russians there.

I checked everywhere.

I checked the bins.

It's a question for the Ukrainians.

They're defending their country.

But here we are nearly five years later, still fighting it out over the Donbass.

I don't know.

Help me out here.

I don't see an end in sight.

At this conference near Moscow, I actually asked Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, this.

I said to him, you know, sir, we're talking about now less than 2,000 square miles of completely ruined territory, you know, the northwestern Donbass territory.

He added that one or two rounds of talks could lead to a trilateral summit between the country's leaders.

Kyiv continues to call for a ceasefire along the current front line, while Moscow demands that Ukraine cede the entirety of the Donbas.

In remarks reported on November 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia was unrealistic, and reiterated Moscow's demand that Ukraine cede the eastern Donbas.

A six-day humanitarian ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshki in Kherson Oblast expired late on November 1.

The ceasefire was mediated by US First Lady Melania Trump, with the involvement of Pope Leo XIV.

In the intervening nine months, neither side's core positions have changed.

Russia's strategic objectives remain maximalist.

Moscow continues to demand Ukraine's withdrawal from the remainder of the Donbas, recognition of Russian control over occupied territory, renunciation of NATO membership and limits on the size of Ukraine's armed forces.

When Russia launched its attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it focused on attacking several fronts simultaneously.

Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Crimea.

The plan was to take over Hostomel Airport and use it as an air bridge that would enable them to seize Kyiv, but the Ukrainian military destroyed the airfield.

Since Russia could no longer use it, they were forced to retreat and abort their attack on Kyiv, leaving thousands of Russian soldiers stranded on enemy soil.

Recruitment videos circulating online also include recordings of men from countries like Kyrgyzstan explaining that they'd happily signed up to join the military in return for a whole plethora of benefits, and that they want their family members to know that they're safe.

The Russian authorities have also repeatedly stated that the ongoing claims that they're engaging in human trafficking are nothing more than a dangerous and misleading propaganda campaign by both Ukraine and the international media, who are doing their best to portray Russia negatively in the Global South.

As soon as they received requests from several African nations to halt the recruitment of their citizens in March 2026, the Russian military reportedly rushed their training and deployed all of the African nationals to the front lines in the Donbass region within days.

It's thought that this was an attempt by the Kremlin to plausibly deny that any African nationals were actively being trained for deployment.

Commenting to Radio Free Europe, Rubio said, I don't know if a negotiated peace is achievable, We are not on the verge of a negotiated settlement, end quotes.

Privately to Europe officials, Rubio has made it clear that he understands Russian President Putin still wants much more than Donbass.

Currently, Russia occupies 19.3% of Ukrainian territory.

Activist Agenda, Meetings, Friday the 9th of November, How to Beat the Far Right, London, AWL Forum, 7pm, Electric, Elephant Cafe, 186A, Crempton Street, SE17, 3AE.