Do Kwon

Um, i- it's the reason why Elizabeth Holmes is just as much a product of Stanford University as, as Hewlett or Packard, right? That, that these are not accidents.

It, literally the day I announced this book about fraud at Stanford and Silicon Valley, another Stanford alum, Do Kwon, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for his role in a $40 billion crypto scheme.

That very day that I announced the book.

You know, it, these are not coincidences.

Um, and it's really easy to pick these things apart.

Like it's, it's, uh, almost as easy to pick apart, you know, a stock-to-flow model and show exactly why it's invalid, uh, as it was to, you know, figure out how Do Kwon's whole thing was a Ponzi.

Like, it's, it's not that hard [laughs] to actually do it once you train your attention on it and use the tools.

Um, so I guess what I mostly wanna get across is this idea that you can predict Bitcoin price based on historical data is false.

But, like, ColdCard and the data hacks and, you know, uh, BitMart, and all of these things, we've had quietly almost the same level of disaster as 2022.

They just have-- we just haven't had names like Mashinsky and SBF on top of them, or Do Kwon, right? But, I mean, there's been a lot of destruction here, and the market ceased going down.

And I think that people, you know, don't really look back at the last cycle and understand the catalyst.

To me, the cycle catalyst in 2023, after all that, was actually Silicon Valley Bank, which was a fundamental reason that Bitcoin went up.

I mean, but the thing is, I mean, you're also kind of a bit stupid if you invested in that.

I mean, it was nice while it was going up and stuff, but like especially when Do Kwon started like going so crazy on, on Twitter all the time and making all of these bets.

Like, even, even if you like don't know anything about a product, like if, if a founder is doing that, it's kinda like, hmm, I don't know if I wanna have my, my money in here.

[chuckles]