David Himbara

Starting from negative.

To understand why Rwanda's growth story sounds so absurd to economists, you have to start with just how catastrophically bad the starting point was.

Because here's the thing about economic miracles.

Most of them happen in countries that, while poor, at least had functioning institutions, some infrastructure, a literate workforce or geographic advantages.

According to research compiled in a 2025 reviewed Journal International paper, early recovery efforts relied heavily on international aid, which accounted for 20% of GDP by the late 1990s, underscoring Rwanda's dependence on external support to restart economic activity.

20% of GDP.

To put that in perspective, when economists talk about foreign aid dependence as a problem, they usually mean countries where aid is 5-10% of GDP.

Rwanda was double that, and that was after things stabilised.