Calgary-Shaw

Oh, and this was also reflected just just just in the news as well.

Calgary Shaw was a traditionally very conservative, very conservative writing in the suburbs of Calgary.

It went out.

It went NDP.

And I'm not dismissing the concerns you have about turnout because that's legitimate.

We'll get into that.

When I look when there was that, what was that? The by-election, what was the writing? Shaw, Calgary Shaw.

When I saw the Shaw by-election results, when I saw more of an anecdotal indicator, but when I saw a fairly conservative identified mayor of Calgary coming out loud and proud against some of this insanity, when I've started to see very belatedly, even just this week, some of the business community in Alberta saying we're not in favor of this, looking at Carney's approval ratings, approval of trump like every anecdotal indicator that we've got is pointing in one direction here and they're all aligned with each other seeing the provincial party support coming down It didn't surprise me.

Yeah, the UCP has not been looking forward to the numbers of these polls.

And we saw the seeds of this with the Calgary-Shaw by-election.

This by-election in southwest Calgary where what seemed like it was a safe UCP seat was flipped a couple weeks ago to the NDP seat.

And dismissed as an outlier by some partisans, but this would suggest it wasn't an outlier.

What do you think?

Well, as you were saying with Janet Brown in the last hour, I think it further reinforces that the Calgary-Shaw by-election we spoke about last week is not a one-off, is not kind of an isolated event.

If the UCP is of the view that in a general election, they could go back to the campaign they ran last time around, I think that would be a mistake.

There's special trouble here in a couple of different places.

When there has been a separatist candidate against incumbents, the separatists have lost so far.

And, you know, we look at this Calgary Shaw by-election situation.

Not to say that I would argue that this is not necessarily like a safe conservative seat because this was held by the NDP before Minister Rebecca Schultz had resigned.

So they're in the cities, they're urban Calgary.

Like, I think these people are going to get super angry with the result.

And I think they're going to self implode.

There's other dynamics at play too, right? So when you look at even Pete Guthrie's party, the Tory party, they peeled off enough votes in the Calgary Shaw by election to be concerning was, I don't know how many Calgary seats were, it was like within 2,500 votes that if they would have flipped to the NDP in the last election, we would have had a NDP government.

And if you have the introduction of other factions like this Tory party that's, you know, also worried about different grievances and they have, you know, with Pete Guthrie and the AHS procurement issues that he raised, if they start to peel off that percentage, the more conservatives are divided, the more they're going to lose.

And also some good news here in Calgary last week.

The Alberta NDP won the Calgary Shaw by-election.

the UCP were expected to win.

The NDP took it 47 to 43% in a riding.

whether the two smaller parties took votes that would have gone to the NDP if they hadn't fielded candidates, if those smaller parties hadn't fielded candidates, or whether, conversely, they created a place for past UCP voters who aren't going to vote for the NDP to put their vote in protest, or maybe a mix of both.

I think it's just something for the parties in Alberta to reflect upon tactically.

But either way, Voters in Calgary Shaw delivered a rejection notice to Smith and put her behind the ball just five weeks before the referendum on separation on October the 19th.

Okay.