What about the guys in the winter wheat areas? This cooler, wetter weather, when will it come? Will it allow them to get that winter wheat planted?

Yeah, I've had a lot of conversations with clients about this, Michelle, and the fact that not only were folks worried about just winter wheat for getting it in the ground for potential harvest in 27, but a lot of guys in Texas use that for cover crop.

And they also use it to balance with annual forage.

And I've talked with them saying, hey, we are so dry that we can't even scratch it in the dirt and hope to get it up.

just to be able to use it from a from an annual forage standpoint so the thing that has to happen is we have to time some of this rain coming in which i do think we will see some rain over the next couple of weeks that could be meaningful eastern new mexico west texas the panhandles on up through southeast colorado and southwest kansas to be able to if nothing else get some of that moisture in the ground to where you can actually go out there in good faith, get that seed in the ground and be able to get it up to be able to go forward with that.

So it's not going to be perfect for everybody.

There are some that are probably going to be planting winter wheat a whole lot later than they would like because they're waiting on that moisture.

Talk about when you think this thing will peak and how long it will linger.

Is the pattern changing?

In one word, no, Tyne.

It really isn't.

I mean, we don't have to overcomplicate what's already going on because this pattern, for the most part, isn't very complicated.

And it has a lot to do with what's just simply been this perpetual upper level ridge of high pressure that's been so strong and so reluctant to break down.

And that's really going to kind of continue to be the theme in the forecast going forward.

This is the upper level weather pattern forecast from today, basically right through the 11th of September.

Brian Bledsoe joins us from the Kansas City studio for that.

Well time the latest Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecast update came out late this past week and you know from a just a 10,000 foot view, you knew El Nino was going to be a big part of that forecast.

And as I kind of went through the information, you can clearly see those signals.

So when we break this down in these three month increments, September, October, November, at least from a temperature standpoint, you're going to be warmer than average up here across the northwest and the north central states.

No big surprise.

That's typically how Nino rolls with the cooler temperatures trying to show up a little bit farther east.

You're just not going to see that signal, at least for that part of the time.

We did get a new drought monitor today, and it does show that parts of Minnesota are starting to see some expanding drought.

Yeah, you know, some of those areas have just simply been missing out as far as the rainfall is concerned.

So you know that kind of begs the question, is there going to be something work its way in? And right now I don't think that there is, at least in the grand scheme of things.

So that doesn't mean everybody is going to get left out.

But let's look at it here with our hour by hour forecast model and our future radar animation.

This is where we're going to start tomorrow morning.

And you see pretty quiet.

a

I mean, some of these places, uh, it's number one out of 134 years, the wettest stretch that they've seen.

Yeah, I really didn't need to add a word to that, and that's exactly kind of what we have done.

So it's kind of refreshing out there, at least in my mind.

For most areas, since you get a day like today, where things have calmed down, you know, quite a bit, and things are actually going safer to calm out there today.

So we're gonna start out tomorrow.

We're gonna walk you through what the next couple weeks look like too.

I'm gonna let you check that, and come back to me whenever you're ready.

All right.

From the studios of Farm Journal Broadcast, this is Ag Day.

What can we expect?

I think it's an important question to look at Haley as we gradually work our way through the rest of August and into September.

So I'll break the next couple of weeks down and kind of some five day increments here.

The 20th through the 25th.

This is what our upper level weather pattern looks like, and this has been the dominant feature here over east and southeast Canada.

That's strong upper level low pressure that's kind of keeping the Corn Belt and northwesterly flow.

Now, while that's happening, We got this big ridge that's anchored over the west and the southwest, providing the heat and the extended drought conditions that are going on, especially across the southern plains.

That's what other guys like when that

happens, guys.

I know you do.

you know uh yeah and i think probably some of the biggest questions that i've been getting is you know when is this going to slow down in terms of you know wet weather and is the heat going to come back so i know we've kind of really spent a lot of time on the near-term forecast here but i thought it'd be prudent to talk about what's happening a little bit more long term here we're going to start with what our upper level weather pattern is going to look like We're going to kick things off on the 20th.

We're going to go through the 25th of August.

And I'll tell you what, this time of year, you get a big upper level low like this across eastern Canada like this.

You know what that's going to produce in our part of the world.

Right.

Is that going to last?

Yeah.

Typically, you know, you, you, you look at what we've seen so far with this pattern and, you know, especially down in Texas where we had a, a upper-level disturbance, you know, about a month ago cruise in from the east, and it dropped anywhere from 10 to 30 inches of rain down in that part of the world.

But after that has gone by the wayside, uh, traditionally this time of year, we get that big ridge to set up in the Southern Plains, and we can go from a whole lot of rain, what we saw, to basically shutting it off and having to worry about flash drought concerns down there, and I think that's a very real thing, especially across the eastern half of Texas.

You look at most Oklahoma, a lot of Oklahoma's been kind of a mess.

Uh, southeast Kansas, you know, has been okay at times, but I would still expect heat and dryness to be a very big part of the weather story going forward, probably through a lot of the rest of this month from south and southeast Kansas, most of Oklahoma, right down into eastern half of Texas.

That, that ridge is probably not going to be very quick to relent, uh, at least in that part of the world.

Yeah, and so those areas that are getting nothing, is there any drought relief expected for them in the west?

it's just a terrible drought

we've been

Is any relief in sight?

Well, Tyne, we have had some relief for some areas over the past few days, especially across parts of Nebraska on up into South Dakota, Minnesota, even into Iowa and eastward.

It hasn't been great for everybody.

Don't get me wrong, but there has been some relief there.

The farther west and southwest you go, not as fortunate.

And this upper level weather pattern that I'm going to show you right now, that's going to persist o days is going to kind of as well.

But are you as concerned as some of these indications out there from some other meteorologists that are saying, hey, this could have a major impact on the crop next week?

I'm not saying it's not going to have any impact on the crop, especially if there are some areas that have been drier recently versus others.

But I think that we have to be mindful of the lack of consistency in the modeling of exactly how this is going to unfold.

And I'll give you an example of that.

If we look at this map right here, where it shows the upper level weather pattern, and this is kind of a five day sliding scale that I'm going to take you through.

So this initial image takes you from July 11th through July 16th and you that circle right there p ridge of high pressure ac of the country and it's no be heat underneath that r it'll be record heat and t too.

But if we put this i what happens, the core of slides its way back to the And that kind of limits the extent of the heat that will flex itself across the upper Midwest.

But do you see this lasting? How

long? I think that that's a...

Really, it's a big question through a lot of different parts of this, whether you're a meteorologist or a marketer or just a simple farmer or a rancher from that perspective.

And as I was telling you a little bit earlier, I'm much more confident in the pattern, at least through the Corn Belt, parts of the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains being drier during this stretch than necessarily this all-encompassing death heat dome that a lot of people are talking about.

Now, I'm not saying that we're not going to see some heat.

We are going to see some heat, but it has to be prolonged enough to really be detrimental.

I never like to see heat and dryness in combination, and we are going to get a little bit of that.

how bad was that flooding and did it do crop damage?

you know,

how much water is this going to take? And I would have to go back and look.

So don't don't quote me, but I'm pretty sure this was right, that they were going to need forty six thousand gallons of water per day.

just for this one data center.

Now, at face value, you might say, well, that's really not a whole lot.

All right, well, are they going to recycle that water for use? Are they going to make it self-contained? How are they going to use it? And most of the time, okay, you look through history, most of the time, the thing, person, entity that has the most money always gets to determine what happens with that entity.

And in this particular instance, that's water.

right

with La Nina, It's a pressure pattern change.

All right.

With a La Nina, we have low pressure in the atmosphere.

A lot of times that will exist over Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia.

And that low pressure in the atmosphere gives rising motion to the atmosphere, builds clouds, precipitation, wet weather, so on and so forth.

On the eastern side of the Pacific, while that's going on, you have high pressure.

And that provides sinking air, which kind of squashes that.

It's like,

How big of an area is that? And will they see any reprieve anytime soon?

I actually think they will and I you know we we get past this week because this this week is still going to be very active and by this week I mean through from now through through Saturday with still several complexes of storms moving through some of those will be pretty rough producing you know flash flooding hail wind and all that kind of stuff and even some tornadoes but It's really, Kansas has been very wet, especially the Eastern two-thirds of Kansas, Southern Iowa, West and Northwest Missouri into Illinois.

Those areas right there, I think after we get past this week are going to start to dry out a little bit.

And I know we talk about this every year where everybody's waiting for that big shoe to drop, where we go from all this rain right now to shutting it off completely.

There isn't a lot of evidence out there that suggests we are going to shut it off completely.

completely.

But I would be most concerned about a drying trend from, say, the eastern half of Texas on up to the eastern half of Oklahoma, the eastern half of Kansas, western Missouri, kind of in that area that has been, has seen rain.

They're what, D3, D4 in the drought monitor?

I know we've been out doing some stories in those areas and some of those guys say, hey, it's one of the worst droughts ever, but put it into perspective for us.

yeah i think we have to be careful when we talk about ever because ever is a really long time and that means we have to take into account the 50s the the 30s the 70s uh and even as recently as say 2020 to 2022 and back into 2012 but i think what makes this drought um you know especially nasty in many regards if you go back to last spring summer and early fall it was amazing across the western high plains a lot of folks saw well above normal moisture for that period of time and then if you go from october one to april one we just shut it off and it was just a real problem so we had a really good six month period followed up by a really bad six month period during that good time we grew up all that vegetation And then we dried it all out.

And then we burned it off with a lot of those big wildfires.

So that made an already bad situation even that much worse.

But the thing that's been really encouraging, not for everybody, because we still have some folks that have some real problems.

And we've had herd liquidation going on.

We've had hard winter wheat failure going on and all that stuff.

So that pattern change that's coming from El Nino,

Did you forget what snow even looked like this year?

Oh, we've only had about 12 minutes of winter, uh, you know, this year, Tine.

So, uh, I had about seven and a half inches of snow at my place here in Castle Rock, Colorado, just south of Denver, and I also got about a half-inch of rain before that.

But ironically enough, I talked with Mark, uh, back and forth quite a bit, and he was telling me, uh, the date that he last saw that moisture, May 12th, May 13th of 2023.

And ironically enough, uh, that was the last time we did this whole La Niña, El Niño switch, uh, which we obviously have completed, uh, over the past, uh, few months or so.

Obviously steaming ahead into El Niño, and I think that's going to continue to be an important part of our forecast going forward.

I'm sure you all are somewhat tired of hearing that.