Blue Nile

The, the, the rhetoric with Ethiopia is very exaggerated.

You know, if you listen to a lot of these, you know, pundits and stuff like that, especially that are supporting the army, they'll tell you, like, "Ethiopia is housing and supporting the RSF, and that's why they're able to gain ground in Blue Nile State." There's a very small kind of asterisk that you have to put next to that, is that it's not...

It, it, it's, uh...

You know, people are accusing the Ethiopian state itself, but that, that needs people to take a step back and look at, well, what's happening in Ethiopia itself.

What's absolutely true is that RSF soldiers are crossing over into Ethiopia.

They're finding refuge over there, and whether they're launching the attacks from there or not is still unknown.

But what's absolutely true is that they're launching attacks from the southern part of Blue Nile State.

Blue Nile State is the state in Sudan that's bordering Ethiopia.

Yes.

And for example, at this moment, there is a very active conflict within Blue Nile State.

Blue Nile State is the state or the area which borders Benishangul-Gumuz region of Ethiopia, which hosts the dam over Nile.

So there's like different layers and dynamics to consider when it comes to these conflicts, which seems like separate, but they are somehow linked with invisible lines.

Yeah.

You know, they gained some areas right now, but they opened a new front in, like, southeastern Sudan on the, on the border with Ethiopia.

And they were able to gain some ground over there because of their alliances with the other groups outside of the RSF that were already controlling a lot of areas in Blue Nile.

So, but when it comes politically, you know, in the past few months, we've seen an insane campaign by the UAE to try and salvage the situation, because the RSF has been, you know, backed by them for a really long time.

So the UAE has gone out on, on an all-out offensive, you know, digitally, diplomatically, you know, internationally, and also starting to dip their toes into other countries, you know, like Niger and the AES and these countries as well.

Like, so is Ethiopia doing this willingly, or are they being pressured by the UAE? Like, what's going on in terms of neighboring countries being a part of the, the RSF push?

Yeah, the, the, the rhetoric with Ethiopia is very exaggerated.

You know, if you listen to a lot of these, you know, pundits and stuff like that, especially that are supporting the army, they'll tell you, like, "Ethiopia is housing and supporting the RSF, and that's why they're able to gain ground in Blue Nile State." There's a very small kind of asterisk that you have to put next to that, is that it's not, it, it, it's, uh, you know, people are accusing the Ethiopian state itself, but that, that needs people to take a step back and look at, well, what's happening in Ethiopia itself? So now the central government in Addis is fighting four or five large armed groups, ethnic armed groups that are fighting the central government.

You have the Fano, that's kind of like, you know, the Amhara militia.

And this fall is a really devastating drone strike by the rapid support forces in Sudan.

They killed 41 people, mostly women and children, at a displaced persons camp in the Blue Nile region.

These strikes show how regional truces are completely unraveling.

Armed groups are using asymmetric warfare against civilian targets.

According to an activist group called the Dar Hamar Emergency Committee, they rolled into a village in West Kordofan state, uh, this is the RSF, and massacred, uh, the village, killed about ten people, and drove many, many others off, uh, while they are, you know, awaiting this, this advance from, from North Kordofan.

Um, there's also been fighting in Blue Nile State, I should add, but, but mainly the focus, uh, this week has been on the situation in Kordofan.

Uh, as you note, uh, Danny, the Sudanese military commander, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who is what passes for a head of state, uh, in Sudan these days, reiterated on Tuesday in a speech, uh, to a crowd in, in northern Sudan, uh, that he has no intention of, of entering into peace talks.

He's not looking to negotiate an end to this conflict with the RSF.