Black Monday
243
MENTIONS
94
EPISODES
78
PODCASTS
Search complete. 243 mentions across 94 episodes found for "Black Monday".
Oct 30, 2026
Jim KeyesGUEST
And they were trying to get the deal done.
Jim KeyesGUEST
If you've heard of historically Black Monday in 1987, I think it was, the market crashed.
Jim KeyesGUEST
They should have pulled the deal.
Jim KeyesGUEST
But the bankers were encouraging, OK.
speaker_0HOST
Yeah.
Jim KeyesGUEST
It was right in the middle of it.
Jim KeyesGUEST
They were literally on the roadshow on Black Monday.
Jim KeyesGUEST
So they funded, shouldn't have, got themselves in trouble to the point that three years later, they're bankrupt.
Chris SipesHOST
But When you see a drop like that in the markets, it should be a sign that, hey, something big is happening.
Chris SipesHOST
Previously, there were times like COVID, the Silicon Valley bank sell-off, Black Monday, et cetera.
Chris SipesHOST
A lot of big things happen around huge drops in rates.
Chris SipesHOST
And I think if you're kind of wondering, are we gonna head into a recession and things like that, you wanna keep an eye on the two-year treasury yield because that one tends to be the front of where everybody piles money in when they're selling and they're scared.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
It carries an extreme impact 3.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
It becomes explainable only after the fact Human nature fools us into believing that we should have been able to know it would happen all along Other examples of black swans are the outbreak of World War I, 9-11, Black Monday and the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
The black swan problem is also called the problem of induction.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
The basic principle is that there are great uncertainties when trying to forecast the future, given the knowledge of the past.
17 MINS LATER
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
Then, our previous observations can tell a whole lot about potential future ones.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
It does not work with variables from Extremistan though.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
For example, if you modeled daily stock market returns as normally distributed, and you were faced with the Black Monday of 1987, where the market crashed by 22.6% in a single day, you would have to call this event an outlier.
Erik AbrahamssonHOST
Because according to the normal distribution, it should only happen once in several billion lifetimes.
MaddieHOST
So why does October feel so scary? It's all because of memory.
MaddieHOST
The October crashes got names, Black Tuesday, Black Monday, and our brains hold onto vivid named events and treat them like a pattern.
MaddieHOST
Meanwhile, the fastest crash in recent history, the COVID drop in 2020, happened in February and March.
MaddieHOST
Nobody calls March the spooky month.
Michael BatnickHOST
So this is wild.
Michael BatnickHOST
So on Black Monday, which is something that the internet was to varying degrees predicting a week ago, the S&P 500 fell, what, like 23% of the day?
Ben CarlsonHOST
Wait, I think it's funny people were predicting this off of some weekend stock market thing.
Ben CarlsonHOST
I don't...
Michael BatnickHOST
The internet can't take anything seriously anymore.
Michael BatnickHOST
But anyway, the point is, the market was actually positive for the year in 1987.
Michael BatnickHOST
So to which, after Black Monday, Ben would have said, what? Stocks are up 2%.
Michael BatnickHOST
This is actually kind of funny.
AlexHOST
October 19th, 1987, the stock market fell 22.6%.
AlexHOST
That huge drop, the nickname given to that day was Black Monday.
AlexHOST
Yes, Black Monday, which it would have been so ironic if it was the same day as Black Friday, but yep, Black Monday.
AlexHOST
So hopefully you're doing pretty well.
AlexHOST
We got two more rounds to go.
Kirk ChisholmHOST
It was started by liquidity because they didn't have it because they levered themselves up.
Kirk ChisholmHOST
If you go in the 80s, Black Monday, that was liquidity.
Kirk ChisholmHOST
It was mainly due to portfolio insurance, but effectively one of the biggest sell-offs in a day in the Dow was because of liquidity.
Kirk ChisholmHOST
The S&L crisis also in the 80s, if you remember this, where a lot of banks failed, that was solvency.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
The entire Internet is silently getting hacked right now, and most people don't realize it.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
Forget Black Monday and the stock market.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
This is Black October for cybersecurity and the Internet.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
This is not propaganda.
David LinHOST
Of course, one of the biggest developments, one of, there's so many different things we can talk about, but one of the biggest developments, as you know, is a surge in bond yields, not just in America, but all over the world.
David LinHOST
And leading up to, I guess, October 19th, which was 39 years ago, Black Monday, people were speculating as to whether or not higher bond yields would pull equities, capital away from equities into bonds and cause another Black Monday crash.
David LinHOST
That didn't happen.
David LinHOST
Are you surprised that we're not getting more inflows into bonds than perhaps maybe people would like to see? Or maybe that's already happening, which is why yields are falling.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
In 1987, I was a senior in high school.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
And we come into the next class after lunch period and Black Monday is happening.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
The stock market's crashing 22% in one day.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
The teacher was in a fit and the world was ending.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
And you haven't lost anything yet.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
Oh, you don't know what you're talking about, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
Well, I went back when I was writing this book and researched the exact history of what happened on Black Monday.
Christopher Toph DayGUEST
And here's what happened.
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