Benishangul-Gumuz Region

The invisible hand [chuckles] behind this group is Egypt.

Egypt.And I, and I would agree that Egypt, the El-Sisi does not like Abi, right? They- they've been so upset over the GERD, the dam in the Benishangul-Gumuz.

They've been so upset about this dam for so long that I think it's kind of really degraded any possibility that they will come together as, let's say, regional powers, right? That said, I think that Egypt is just as aware of [laughs] the poor alliance capabilities of Eritrea and the TPLF, and so is probably hedging its bets a little bit about how successful this combination can be.

Because they certainly wouldn't be successful alone.

And you did mention that what we're seeing in Sudan is a situation of that war potentially regionalizing into a genuine Red Sea proxy conflict.

I'm wondering which of the escalation pathways worries you the most? Could it be the real concern of Ethiopia being pulled in through Benishangul Gumuz? Could it be the spillover into South Sudan, the Eritrea question, or the hardening partition around Kordofan? Which of the dynamics really worries you the most?

Well, all of these are very concerning.

I think there are two in particular that could prove the most destabilizing for the broader region beyond what it already is.