Barbara Mellers

This is where science gets even more fun.

Instead of everybody screaming at each other on Twitter forever, Killingsworth, Kahneman, and Barbara Mellers worked together.

They published an adversarial collaboration in 2023 trying to reconcile the conflicting results.

And the answer was basically, both studies were seeing pieces of a more complicated picture.

There have been studies, you'll see these come up, uh, now and then, of pitting forecasters versus experts.

The most famous one, um, was, uh, Phil Tet- Tetlock and Barbara Mellers and company, um, found that, uh, the crowd aggregate, uh, on good judgment outperformed intelligence analysts who had access to signals intel and all this stuff that you would think would make their forecasts better.

Um, that does, does not hold up to scrutiny very well if you look at the data.

But even if it were true, the analysts are not used to putting their beliefs in terms of probability.