Ariane

They apply roulette math to a wildly uncertain system.

This reminds me of the Ariane rocket story.

A tragic but perfect example.

The European Space Agency built the Ariane rocket.

Their engineers proudly stated it had a safety factor of 99.6%.

They claimed it was a near certainty to function flawlessly.

And, and Ariane Space is at six.

Right.

And Ariane Space used to use Soyuz, so they're now relying on, on only the Arianes.

And the Japanese I think are at two or three?

The, the Japanese are at three.

Our main story today is something I'm calling Europe's cadence test.

Can Ariane six still hit scale after a pump scare? According to European Space Flight, the European Space Agency has confirmed that it is aware of delays affecting the Ariane six launch schedule following reports of an engine turbo pump anomaly.

Now, a turbo pump is a high-speed pump that feeds liquid propellants from a rocket's tanks into the engine's combustion chamber, basically the heart that keeps the engine fed.

For anyone new here, Ariane six is Europe's heavy lift rocket, the vehicle meant to give Europe sovereign access to orbit without booking elsewhere.

And it's supposed to ramp to nine to ten launches as early as twenty twenty-seven.

Today's delta is narrow but consequential.

ESA told European Space Flight, quote, "ESA is aware of the delays after being asked about the reports, but declined to comment on the root cause." ArianeGroup and Arianespace, the builder and the launch operator who sell and fly the rocket, added in a statement to European Space Flight, quote, "The industrial ramp-up of Ariane six is proceeding smoothly, and the entire industrial supply chain is on track to reach the target rate of nine to ten launches as early as twenty twenty-seven." They continued, quote, "However, we will need to adjust this year's mission schedule.

This is because additional checks currently underway need to be carried out within the Ariane six production line." They did not confirm whether those checks relate to the reported turbo pump anomaly.