Ann Selzer
American pollsterWikipedia
91
MENTIONS
65
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55
PODCASTS
Search complete. 91 mentions across 65 episodes found for "Ann Selzer".
Oct 14, 2026
speaker_6SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
And it happened to Iowa.
speaker_6SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
It, it destroyed Ann Selzer's career.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
And I, and I do think that that, I do think that's a very common thing.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
Usually at this stage in elections you got, get the pollsters being like, "Hey, don't hold us to it, okay?"
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
There will still be one person that wins on Election Day.
speaker_7SOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
Close doesn't cut it.
Reged AhmadHOST
Destroyed Ann Selzer's career.
Reged AhmadHOST
He's talking about that, um, Iowa poll in the presidential elections in 2024, where she said Kamala Harris was gonna win there and, and didn't.
Todd ErzinHOST
It's, it's, it's on purpose.
Steve DeaceHOST
Well, if you lived in the state of Iowa, and we do, and saw that Ann Selzer poll the Sunday before the election that made Charlie, the White House, uh, my...
Steve DeaceHOST
E- everybody that, uh, that, that has ever known me, I think, in politics-
Todd ErzinHOST
Yeah
Corey NathanHOST
And to your point, so a couple of points I'll agree with you, is that, um, the polls that are closest to tend to be closest to the result that we get, uh, if they're, if they're, they're good polls.
Corey NathanHOST
One famous example that was not the case in 2024 was Ann Selzer's poll in Iowa.
Chip MeyerGUEST
Yeah.
Corey NathanHOST
That was way, way off, and she had been historically pretty, pretty-
Ryan GirduskyHOST
I'm someone who very much roots for polling industry to be correct, but I am willing to point out when I think something is wrong.
Ryan GirduskyHOST
I did this with the Ann Selzer poll at, when I was like, "This poll makes no sense." And I brought-- And Mark Halperin brought out to Ann Selzer in a very famous interview, and she couldn't really explain how her numbers she was getting, you know, the results that she was getting.
Ryan GirduskyHOST
But listen, to her credit, she lived and died by her own polling, and just on this time you happen to die.
Ryan GirduskyHOST
But she was right for a very, very long time.
Shawn FarashHOST
If the polls are off by that many points, three plus And, and some polling has been off by, by that much.
Shawn FarashHOST
I mean, think, Ann Selzer in Iowa in 2024 missed by 16, 16 points.
Shawn FarashHOST
I'm not saying the polls are gonna miss by that, but three points is not a lot, especially when you start taking into account the non-response bias of ru- rural voters, people who aren't answering the call.
Shawn FarashHOST
I answer polls all the time.
Tim MillerHOST
Pollsters have been trying to do various things to o-offset that.
Tim MillerHOST
Um, but I'm just kind of wondering how you assess, you know, where we're at this cycle and whether we're staring down the barrel of another Ann Selzer situation or not.
Adam CarlsonGUEST
Yeah.
Adam CarlsonGUEST
Was Ann Selzer right, or was she just early, right? That's the rest of the real question.
Adam CarlsonGUEST
And yeah, so I mean, [sighs] we're getting to the point of the cycle, which happens every cycle.
Adam CarlsonGUEST
Uh, usually it's a little bit more intense in presidential years than in-
8 MINS LATER
Adam CarlsonGUEST
Right? But that was a risk, and I got pretty well roasted, I think rightfully so.
Adam CarlsonGUEST
It is a risk, and, like, the, the downside potential of having an outlier miss, I think is, is higher than having one that, uh, succeeds.
Shawn FarashHOST
But it does suggest that the geography of early voting is worth watching rather than simply assuming that the usual midterm patterns are gonna repeat themselves, and, "Oh, well, the polls say this, so that's what's gonna happen." I mean, we've seen polling misses all over the place.
Shawn FarashHOST
I was listening to, uh, Dan and Vince, I think it was yesterday or two days ago, and they were talking about Ann Selzer.
Shawn FarashHOST
Remember the Ann Selzer poll in Iowa? Kamala Harris is leading Iowa by three points.
Shawn FarashHOST
Oh my goodness gracious.
Shawn FarashHOST
And she wound up missing by 16 points.
Dan TurrentineHOST
And of course, You know, sometimes even the best pollsters are wildly wrong.
Dan TurrentineHOST
I mean, I'll go to my grave saying Ann Selzer is one of the best pollsters there ever was.
Dan TurrentineHOST
And she obviously whiffed in 24 on Iowa.
Dan TurrentineHOST
So look, that's why looking at a collective.
Corey NathanHOST
Um, talk about Iowa, I mean, the one that really pulled me in.
Corey NathanHOST
I was trying to reserve judgment, uh, but Ann Selzer, who historically has been, um, really on the money, um, her poll, uh, her poll I think came out on Saturday before election day, um, was, was pretty far, uh, she -- It was, it was further off than she had been.
Corey NathanHOST
Um, so there's a lot of folks who are, who are cautious.
Corey NathanHOST
However, um, if we look at 2025, the Democratic, uh, gubernatorial candidates in, in New Jersey and Virginia outperformed.
Joe MitchellGUEST
CNN just did a segment on this this last week saying that Iowa is the most mispolled state, so meaning that they skew towards the Democrats in the polls almost nine points over the last eight years, and you saw that in 2024.
Joe MitchellGUEST
Ann Selzer said that Kamala Harris was gonna win this state by five or six points.
Joe MitchellGUEST
Kamala Harris.
Joe MitchellGUEST
So I mean, and then the President won by 13 or 14 points statewide.
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