Andrei Shleifer

It's hard to tell.

I wrote a paper with Andrei Shleifer and Yueran Ma a couple years ago on the Chinese housing bubble, and we thought that the level of vacancies, as far as we were able to tell, outside of the tier one cities, so the tier one cities are, are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, the levels of vacancies are just enormous.

And what's interesting is they're vacancies that are kept on the books of developers, which is not a thing you see in the US because if you've got a developer who is sitting on a project that isn't all sold, there's a lender who's breathing down that person's neck.

You've got to flip the properties to sell it.