American Association for Public Opinion Research
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is the leading professional organization of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S., with members from academia, media, government, the non-profit sector and private industry. Journalists–need a polling expert? Email us at experts@aapor.org AAPOR members embrace the principle that public opinion research is essential to a healthy democracy, providing information crucial to informed policymaking and giving voice to the nation's beliefs, attitudes and desires. It promotes a better public understanding of this role, as well as the sound and ethical conduct and use of public opinion research. Among many other resources and services, AAPOR: Provides educational opportunities in survey research for experienced and beginning researchers, journalists and others. Encourages researchers to adopt and promote high professional standards. Develops information for the media and public about how surveys are conducted, how to interpret them and how to judge their value. Produces resources on a range of survey and polling issues, such as our Task Force Reports. Publishes the authoritative and influential peer-reviewed journal Public Opinion Quarterly. Publishes Survey Practice, an online journal for survey practitioners. Publishes the new Journal for Survey Statistics and Methodology Supports seven chapters across the U.S. Hosts a vibrant Career Center to find qualified candidates, as well as search for jobs in the field.www.aapor.org
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Search complete. 9 mentions across 9 episodes found for "American Association for Public Opinion Research".
Nov 2, 2026
Mark MecklerHOST
In 2020, four years later, it got worse.
Mark MecklerHOST
The pollster's own professional association, which is the AAPOR, called it an error of quote-unquote unusual magnitude.
Mark MecklerHOST
I think that's being nice.
Mark MecklerHOST
It was the worst in 40 years nationally.
Phillip M. BaileyGUEST
So polling has become more difficult, but I think many pollsters point out certain things have been improved upon.
Phillip M. BaileyGUEST
Certain studies, for example, I think it was maybe last year, two years ago, the American Association of Public Opinion Research did an assessment of polls and found that they were fairly accurate in 2024.
Phillip M. BaileyGUEST
So again, this is not a perfect science.
Phillip M. BaileyGUEST
Polls have certainly gotten it wrong in the past.
Douglas RiversGUEST
But overall, a one- or two-point error is about as good as polling can do.
Bill WhalenHOST
Yeah, the American Association of Public Opinion Research did a study on this.
Bill WhalenHOST
It found polls overstating Democratic margins by an average of 2.7% in 2024, 4.6% in 2020, and 3.1% in 2016.
Bill WhalenHOST
But the polling misses, Doug, were much smaller during the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
Blue GalHOST
Now, in 2020, Biden won, but across all polling, his margin of victory was substantially overestimated.
Blue GalHOST
The American Association for Public Opinion Research conducted a detailed review of the 2020 polling.
Blue GalHOST
Its findings were alarming.
Blue GalHOST
National polling error.
Tom BonierGUEST
There's a few places you could do it.
Tom BonierGUEST
There's APOR, which is the American Association of Public Opinion Research.
Tom BonierGUEST
It's basically a trade association.
Tom BonierGUEST
You know, in the end, anyone who is conducting a poll, they're not doing the polling themselves in terms of asking the questions.
Rich BarisGUEST
The most rigorous vetting that you could get, uh, that you could face as a pollster.
Rich BarisGUEST
Maybe it's time for real clear politics to sit down and say, okay, We're going to develop a set of standards because, guys, the truth is APOR, which is the American Association of Public Opinion Research, doesn't have the respect for a lot from everyone.
Rich BarisGUEST
They have respect from left-wing pollsters.
Rich BarisGUEST
They have respect from university pollsters, and some of them only give it to them because they feel like they need to.
Andrea KayeHOST
A national polling association is now decrying the use of fabricated polls.
Andrea KayeHOST
It's the American Association of Public Opinion Research.
Andrea KayeHOST
And they are saying that there is quite the impact of particularly when it comes to erosion of trust.
Andrea KayeHOST
It's one of the reasons why they acknowledged on Tuesday that it had used fake polls.
Rudy MartinezHOST
Polls have missed before, as we've said.
Rudy MartinezHOST
A task force of the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that the 2024 pre-election polls underestimated Republican votes shares relative to Democrats for the third straight presidential cycle.
Rudy MartinezHOST
It found that they overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices.
Rudy MartinezHOST
Polls measure what votes say.
G. Elliott MorrisHOST
And I think the simplest, the simplest reason is the one that you see on your screen here, and that is that the polls in the last three election cycles, those last three dots on your right, have overestimated Democrats three times in a row by four points in the average state in the presidential level in, uh, in 2020, and by about three points in 2024, slightly, slightly better.
G. Elliott MorrisHOST
Um, this slide comes from the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the task force investigation on the 2024 polling error.
G. Elliott MorrisHOST
I just love that it calls itself a task force.
G. Elliott MorrisHOST
[laughs] It's so cool.