How did Survivor go for you? Did we escape the Chargers, or did you get tripped up by LA?

No, we escaped.

I mean, I lost about 25% of my entries, which is not surprising.

I...

The way I did it was 25% Chargers, 25% Jags, 25% Steelers, and then I messed around with the other 25%, some Eagles, some Bengals.

Nice.

Maybe there was a one Lions in there or something like that.

Should we be concerned about the body clock and the issues for the 49ers on Sunday?

So overall, does it feel like Melbourne is embracing it? Are they going to, are they excited about having the NFL with a 1030 in the morning kickoff?

So, apart from being at 10.30 in the morning, which, again, when you look at our rugby league, Aussie rules, all these things are starting to transition towards evening kind of events, Australian Open finals, all those kind of things.

So, time-wise, definitely interesting, definitely going to be cold.

I know that for sure because this morning at 10 a.m., 10.30 a.m., needed the jacket, definitely on the cooler side.

So that'll be interesting.

Oddly enough, it was only recently when we were out in San Francisco that I kind of learned.

I just thought San Francisco was like everywhere else in California, nice and balmy and warm, but it's actually on the cooler side up there, which makes sense with the wineries and everything else up further north as well.

How do you feel about the Steelers?

What type of action do you guys see week one of college versus week one of NFL? Is it comparable at all? Are people just jumping at it because it's football to bet it's real football or is it still college? So the NFL next weekend will trumpet.

It's still college early on.

And again, some of these, the marquee matchups usually happen later in the season, mid season, at least there is a couple of early big games as we're seeing, but, A lot of these is just a lot of teams that, you know, a lot of 28 and a half, 35 and a half, big spreads that people don't get too involved in too early on.

Hell of a lot more games spread out per game, you know, would add up to the total of NFL.

Unlikely as well at this point.

NFL just generally, you know, on those games just load up.

And especially now that they just love spreading these games out.

I mean, is it that way? How do you feel about the fact that if the handle overall is being cut into by prediction markets, is that bringing new people into the space or ultimately could benefit the sports books? Or are you angry that they're involved? Because I mean, clearly Derek Stevens, he said Circa's down about 30% this year and he puts it all on prediction markets.

What classifies the outback? Like, like, you know, we're, we're in the, in the, you know, in the desert area here in Vegas, but there's the Mojave and there's a bunch of different, what, what classifies the outback in Australia?

Well, I mean, Australia in general, you live on about 16% of the country and the rest of it is pretty desolate.

I'm in Uluru, uh, which is previously known as Ayers Rock, but everything's kind of being changed to the Aboriginal names and brought back to where it was.

Um, there's a airport here with one baggage carousel.

I think there's maybe half a dozen planes come in a day from different parts, from three parts of the country.

Uh, there's a little township here.

There's a small supermarket.

It, Is that just kind of the nature of the business now as to where we are when it comes to prediction markets? We're not going to have the same regular sharing of information because market makers can take advantage of what's going to happen in the prediction market?

On the ninth, we're still a couple of weeks away from the start of the season in Seattle for you as a better, when, uh, Like, do you look at early opportunities, early games, or do you want to watch a bit? Like, did you feel like the market is soft in September and you want to attack? Or do you hold off a little bit and wait to see what these teams look like before you get heavily involved, say, week two, week three?

No, the markets are the softest at the beginning.

So if you can really sort of try and gauge or make judgments.

And this is the time when even the master money can be on two different directions and you have opportunities to sort of balance that on just different opinions.

People do different work, have different ratings per se on different stats and things like that.

So this is in the first few weeks is really where you want to, you know, take charge and really back your judgment.

I mean, the first few weeks is really where you're, you know, how much confidence do you have in your own stuff versus seeing what everyone else is doing.

Billy had seen like average gamblers know who Billy Walters is, is there, and you don't have to give a name right now, but like, have you come across people recently that are the Billy Walters of today, that there are people out there in the world that are either ghosts or unknown that don't have the rockstar status of Billy Walters, but they exist in the world.

Yeah.

Um, so yeah, it- it's, you know, it's pre-season.

People are gonna play it.

As you said, do the homework, know what the line-ups.

Um, these days with, you know, internet, Twitter, and all this other stuff, there's, you know, you've gotta kind of weed through what information's real and what's sort of not and, you know, the back and forth.

Um, and that's where some of these games, it's just wait until the live, get involved once you know what the line-ups are, who the quarterback is, and then potentially how many downs and, um, you know, players they'll play and then when they'll be taken out of the game.

And you kind of jumped into that.

How was BetBash for you overall?

So with all what you just said, now's the time to ask you, why did you decide to go ahead and buy Prime?

So I believe there is some states that it is viable to do this.

I believe we've seen enough green shoots in a sense of if you really sort of do the customer service, you find, you know, it really only takes a few customers to ultimately be able to become profitable.

and then getting the cost down.

Prime, unfortunately, got into a couple of states right at the peak of it.

That was the last bought skin, I think, at the time for New Jersey.

So there was kind of a mad rush to get that one.

What would people who were your age in 1995 when you started this, right? What would be considered the old timers today? What would their take be on all of this, do you think? Well,

after the World Cup and after all the Netflix documentary and everything that's going on around the prediction markets, that if you were in a state that hasn't legalized, could the prediction market boom force you to legalize because people are betting anyway in your state?

So I believe the tribes are very strong on a 2028 proposal.

It's outside of the prediction market, showing that if you don't start taxing it or get involved, you're missing out.

So it is really showing that there, you know, when we went from offshore to onshore with the PASPR and whatnot, I've always said that I still think there's two to $1 on the under-regulated.

So $2 unregulated to the $1 regulated in that space.

I think the prediction markets has found money, like found money that didn't exist offshore, didn't exist onshore, just stock traders or any of those kind of things, and have brought them into the ecosystem.

So I think it's now ramping up beyond what the offshore was and the onshore was, regulated, unregulated.

No? No.

England wound up winning that game 6-4.

Yeah, that game ended up well.

Again, it flew over.

You know, it started to get a lot of money on the under late.

You know, once it got to three and a half, people were coming in just thinking, this must be crazy, too big.

But as we said, these games often fly over.

Not like that so much.

We have Bet Bash to kind of get you through the lull, right? I mean, what are your thoughts on Bet Bash? You've gone every year, right?

But anybody, given the way Argentina came back on England, are the English motivated to go, you know, get a win here and go home with at least a third place finish, or is France really ticked off about being beaten by Spain and you can back the French?

So actually it's starting to form into a bit of a data play here, this one.

Uh, and it's on the English.

Uh, generally all the rec money, everything is coming in on France.

But I am seeing key signs where the master money at plus three-quarter, plus a half, uh, on the three-way money line, we're getting action on the draw in England from the masters, where it's just, you know, 90-plus percent recreational on France.

So [sighs] I, I do feel that that's sort of the play to get into, you know, and the master money's showing up to sort of support that.

Yes, France are gonna be opening it up and just looking to attack.

What are we seeing from an action standpoint? Where's the master money going?

I assume I'm just going to say I know it's not making picks, but are there is there any tools that you find are good in your in your day to day?

It's just sort of getting into it now.

Ours is more of machine learning, data driving to get these models that are ultimately taking all the situations and putting a price and a total in that based on the time of game, what the score is, and all those other aspects.

Soccer is a pretty simple model in a sense of You know, it degrades with time and then trying to guess how much injury time there's going to be, which obviously peaks up, you know, a little bit at the end to give more time.

So that can sort of adjust what the total may be and the draw and things like that at that stage.

For me, and on those articles and stuff like that, that's where, you know, not picking on Americans here, but they love to just get a one line, this is the winner.

And one thing that I've learned that if you actually read people's articles, there's a lot of nuggets in there that they haven't used as their ultimate winner.

Is there anything that you would, you know, kind of point to for, you know, the casual gamblers in a place where they can find some of that information?

Does that impact the handle?

100% valid reason, 'cause couple of people have actually reached out saying, "I have these future tickets.

What should I do?" Um, and definitely they got sort of two or three of the four covered.

Uh, it seems like England's the one that mainly nobody, uh, has taken a shot at at this point in time.

Um, but yeah, um, I mean, again, you would think that these are two cracking games, competitive.

Uh, I'm very surprised at how much the favorites are favorite.

I would think these are generally pick 'em games.

Will the game be bet he- more heavily tomorrow, given the, the fact that England's involved and that there's people here in the States that are willing to bet heavy here on England? Will tomorrow's handle be bigger than today's handle?

What are you seeing from an action standpoint today for the second of the four games in the round of eight?

Yeah, this is yesterday.

90 plus percent money on Spain, just like we had with France yesterday.

Master money also on Spain, which yesterday was a little bit balanced between France and Morocco in the three-way whatnot.

Totals pretty well balanced and spread.

We're looking at actually 81% of the monies on Spain, 75% of the master money on Spain as well.

I mean, Belgium were a... meant to be eight, 12 years ago in their prime.

What's your call? England or Norway?

Where are we? What's your feeling for Team USA? Can they get through to the round of 16?

Well, I think they might even be one of the shortest-priced favorites coming into the next round.

Banana peel game maybe for the USA both now.

I mean, they weren't real strong playing Canada and Switzerland in the previous round.

USA is expected to get across this one.

The draw is really set up for them to go deep into this tournament now.

But this one they should get through as long as they're concentrating.

That's the draw parlay, right?

interesting all right japan and sweden this is a game that is expected to be highly competitive it is only minus 110 on the three-way for japan slight favorite three to one on the comeback for sweden two and a half from a total perspective on this one how are you seeing this matchup it's the only game in the four o'clock eastern time window today

uh no there's always two games on at once so you got the sorry you got yeah netherlands and tunisia and sweden japan at the same time um This one, you know, a draw for both of them, they'd be quite happy.

This is kind of the beginning of about five games that I've just rolled up into draws and it's about 150 to one.

And this is kind of one of the bigger price ones where this could be some back and forth.

Both teams, the draw is what they ultimately get them both through.

I am seeing about 80% of the money on Sweden plus half a goal, 68% of them, overall money on the over but 91 of the master money is on the under and then on the three-way it just no real master money recreational i've got japan and it's kind of split out of the as it should be but this is one where if japan get behind i think they could you know come back and even potentially win the game from behind which i know is like 10 to 1 or something like that based pre-game uh but yeah this is kind of the first game that i think uh draw is what they both does well for them.

And then, uh, you know, just go from there.

And is, is that a good way of attacking certain games where you can get into the prop market? Cause the numbers just aren't where they should be.

in terms of the master money do you find masters betting draws more or has the public said okay this is a betting trend you know the four draws on monday so the public is starting to get involved betting it simply because you i mean we talked about it yesterday on Tuesday and it did only one of the two games ended in a draw but like you could have gone and depending on the number you got on Portugal on that tie yesterday I mean it can cover all four games if you have one draw that comes in it can cover the entire day for you and make it profitable for you so are people trying are people doing that

uh definitely I'm seeing like first few games, 95% of the money on the draw was master money.

Now it's closer to sort of 70, 75, even dipping below 70% at times that that's starting to come in because yeah, I mean these draw prices at times are feeling quite insane.

Um, it seems like the underdogs are not a lower price than what they normally are and has been a lot more baked into the draw price where it's making it higher.

Um, Because this first round, I mean, now, you know, today starts the second round of the group stage and teams have got to start jockeying.

But the way they were matched up, the two top teams and the two bottom teams of the group, draw was a perfect result in that first right around.

So getting a point, understanding where you're at.

And 22-1 that Spain wouldn't

Are we seeing heavy action? Like, what, what's the story right now behind the counter for you guys with the World Cup?

Yeah.

F- France and Spain are heavily getting bet.

Um, there's no surprise there.

England's seeing some action.

Uh, the two teams that aren't seeing action, which it's oddly enough, we did some picks on prime suspects last week, and I obviously wasn't listening to Joe's, and I picked some random thing like Japan and Argentina or some- something crazy just pulled out of the box.

Then I went and did some work and started to look at the odds and was looking at two teams that were, you know, they were the teams 20 years ago where you couldn't get more than three and a half to one on Brazil or maybe six to one on Germany.

Yeah.

Is there a different handicap because of the length of the race is different.

Length of the race has been completely different.

I've loved the Belmont mile and a half.

There's very few horses, very serious strategies that, you know, I go into that each year going, all right, I'm locked in.

I know this is what I want.

finding some big odds runners.

I love the mile and a half because it's really not run that much in the U S.

No,

Right.

Calchi, Polymarket, Gray, back home, VPNs, you know, all k- all these kind of things.

So I think they've really missed an opportunity on this in, in making that a little bit better and easier.

There is some states that you can do a passport, you do, um, manual KYC and things like that.

But I got to live and breathe that whole process, so I know it very, very well, and I know our state's, what the rules are.

So our team's really being ready to do those manual KYCs if needed, um, getting passports, getting utility bills from wherever, and things like that.

... regulatory process, it's like, "Hey, sorry."

100%.