Abqaiq

Um, uh, Ansar Allah has conducted five military operations against Kingdom of Saudi Arabia airports and oil facilities with ballistic missiles in what they claim is a response to Saudi strikes against Ansar Allah-controlled Yemen, which caused dozens of casualties.

The Ras Tanura refinery, Abqaiq plants, Petro Rabig, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, The King Khalid Airport was targeted with multiple ballistic missiles.

Others were mentioned.

All other mentioned facilities are targeted with one ballistic missile each.

Maybe Saudi's trying to get, I mean, certainly a part of the impetus for Saudi participating in this recent meeting was to take the target off its back, you know, Given that there will, you know, overwhelmingly probable there'll be a resumption of hostilities.

So I think Saudi was trying to figure out, I'm guessing, you know, to minimize attacks on it or maybe to declare, you know, please don't hit Abqaiq or, you know, or whatever.

You know, don't cut undersea communication cables or whatever.

You know, so we'll see if that works.

Civilians at the airport came first, then a refinery, then Aramco's headquarters, the nerve center of Saudi oil.

Each rung raised the economic stakes while stopping short of the one target that would shake the global economy, Abqaiq, the processing hub that prepares most Saudi crude for export.

Whoever is climbing this ladder is signaling two things.

They can reach Abqaiq, and they are choosing not to strike it yet.

That is coercion, not restraint.

Abqaiq is the logical next rung because it gives maximum leverage over Riyadh and Washington at the same time.

One strike there would turn a regional war into a global price shock overnight.

One morning in 2019 shook the world's oil supply.

And

we did see after the Abqaiq attack in 2019, a real questioning of was the Carter Doctrine still in place? The United States basically said, that's oil going to Asia.

We're sorry this happened, Saudi Arabia, but we're not invoking any type of collective defense

agreement to come to your aid after this.

Which, I mean, when we just put a historical context, and again, framing it in the 10 years of this Houthi-Saudi kind of slap off, if you like.

I mean, we had Abqaiq in 2019, probably the most consequential piece of Saudi Arabia oil infrastructure kit that was hit then.

At this moment, I mean, we had the airport closure in Saudi and a number of people killed tragically.

But ultimately, from an energy infrastructure point of view, we haven't had anything as consequential as that yet.

The Houthis have launched hundreds of strikes over the years, and the capability has grown rather than declined.

The Abqaiq oil processing facility, one of the largest in the world, was struck in 2019 in an attack that temporarily shut down roughly 5% of global daily oil production.

That number, 5% of global daily supply, gets your attention fast regardless of whether you follow military aviation or not.

Water infrastructure, civilian airports, power generation facilities, and residential areas have all been targeted.