
Aaron Friedberg
American political scientist
2
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Sep 23, 2026
The US-China summit: what’s at stake
39:46
40:09
40:15
40:22
40:35
40:43
46:01
Cherry GreggHOST
I know both of you said that there may not be a resolution to this issue during this summit, but can you sort of frame this for us? Where is China in the AI race and how likely is it to get any type of agreement anytime soon on this when there are so many fears swirling around what could happen if AI continues at this pace? And Aaron, we'll start with you.

Aaron FriedbergGUEST
Well, I'm not an expert on AI, so I will not pretend to be able to tell you who's ahead.

Aaron FriedbergGUEST
And I think if you sample 100 experts, people who really follow this very closely, you'd find a wide range of opinions.

Aaron FriedbergGUEST
My sense is that many of the experts in the United States and other Western countries believe that the US still has significant advantages in computing power, and the development of algorithms and so on.

Aaron FriedbergGUEST
But China is moving forward very quickly, and they also have some real advantages.

Aaron FriedbergGUEST
China has greatly increased its capacity to generate electric power, and it now has more capacity than the US.
5 MINS LATER

Kevin McCorryHOST
What's your view on how this plays out in a good way or how this potentially plays out in a bad way, like 50 years from now, 100 years from now? If China truly overtakes us as a superpower, as it seems like they intend to, what does that look like and how do we stop it?
Aaron Friedberg on Fallout from the China Summit
24:18
Bill KristolHOST
Uh, I know friends of mine who follow this stuff much more closely than, than I do and almost as closely as you do were pretty... astonished by some of that, but, uh, walk us through just what he, what he said and, about Taiwan, the arms deal, what the backdrop of that is and, and, and why it matters if it does.
A
24:34Aaron FriedbergGUEST
Well, um, he has said in the past a number of things that could be interpreted as, uh, raising doubts about the US commitment to, to Taiwan's defense in the event that it's attacked by, by China.
A
24:49Aaron FriedbergGUEST
And he said it sort of indirectly, so he'll say T- uh, "Taiwan's a long way from us, but it's closer to the Chinese mainland." And he repeated that trope a couple of times now using specific figures, although I don't know if they're accurate for how far Taiwan is supposed to be from us and how far it is from the Chinese mainland.
A
25:08Aaron FriedbergGUEST
What's the message there? Well, it's very difficult to project power over those long distances.
A
25:14Aaron FriedbergGUEST
And it is gonna be difficult if we ever had to do it to defend, uh, a friend, uh, from an opponent that's very big and very close by.
A
25:23Aaron FriedbergGUEST
He's stating a truth there, but by doing that, I think he's introducing a question of whether he is truly committed in the long run to, to Taiwan's defense.
15 MINS LATER