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Aaron Friedberg

Aaron Friedberg

American political scientist

Sep 23, 2026

39:46
I know both of you said that there may not be a resolution to this issue during this summit, but can you sort of frame this for us? Where is China in the AI race and how likely is it to get any type of agreement anytime soon on this when there are so many fears swirling around what could happen if AI continues at this pace? And Aaron, we'll start with you.
40:09
Well, I'm not an expert on AI, so I will not pretend to be able to tell you who's ahead.
40:15
And I think if you sample 100 experts, people who really follow this very closely, you'd find a wide range of opinions.
40:22
My sense is that many of the experts in the United States and other Western countries believe that the US still has significant advantages in computing power, and the development of algorithms and so on.
40:35
But China is moving forward very quickly, and they also have some real advantages.
40:40
The caller mentioned electric power.
40:43
China has greatly increased its capacity to generate electric power, and it now has more capacity than the US.

5 MINS LATER

46:01
What's your view on how this plays out in a good way or how this potentially plays out in a bad way, like 50 years from now, 100 years from now? If China truly overtakes us as a superpower, as it seems like they intend to, what does that look like and how do we stop it?
24:18
Uh, I know friends of mine who follow this stuff much more closely than, than I do and almost as closely as you do were pretty... astonished by some of that, but, uh, walk us through just what he, what he said and, about Taiwan, the arms deal, what the backdrop of that is and, and, and why it matters if it does.
24:34
Well, um, he has said in the past a number of things that could be interpreted as, uh, raising doubts about the US commitment to, to Taiwan's defense in the event that it's attacked by, by China.
24:49
And he said it sort of indirectly, so he'll say T- uh, "Taiwan's a long way from us, but it's closer to the Chinese mainland." And he repeated that trope a couple of times now using specific figures, although I don't know if they're accurate for how far Taiwan is supposed to be from us and how far it is from the Chinese mainland.
25:08
What's the message there? Well, it's very difficult to project power over those long distances.
25:14
And it is gonna be difficult if we ever had to do it to defend, uh, a friend, uh, from an opponent that's very big and very close by.
25:23
He's stating a truth there, but by doing that, I think he's introducing a question of whether he is truly committed in the long run to, to Taiwan's defense.
25:34
So he did that again.

15 MINS LATER

40:14
Right.

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