Westpac Banking Corporation

The Reserve Bank really has only got, you know, one bullet to shoot and that's keeping interest rates, pushing interest rates higher.

What about early next year? I see that even Westpac says the question is turning to the future beyond November.

Do you think there'll need to be another increase early in the new

year? We had thought that if they did back-to-back increases, that was probably going to be enough.

Money markets now put in the odds at roughly 80% for yet another hike, this time up to 4.85% during the meeting next Tuesday.

Both Westpac and the CBA also expect a November hike.

Michelle Bullock also told the Senate today that the jobs market looks a little tighter than it previously thought.

And there was even a few market commentators saying that back-to-back rate hikes in November and December is certainly on the cards.

At least NAB's being upfront.

What about other banks? Westpac has announced further redundancies.

Declines in lending could be as much as 10 to 20%.

The Finance Sector Union estimates more than 10,000 banking jobs have disappeared over the past two years.

Some of my farmer mates and I got a few too many beers in the southern field days at Waimumu.

I bullied them into entering, and so we went through a three- or four-month training process and did the 240Ks from Queenstown down to Invercargill and raised money for the Westpac.

Get it right.

rescue helicopter and we had a great time.

Expectations have swung firmly in favour of a Melbourne Cup Day rate rise after annual inflation jumped to 4.3% in September.

Economists at major banks and financial institutions including Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, AMP and KPMG think the Reserve Bank of Australia is certain to lift the official cash rate to 4.85% next Tuesday, which would be its highest point in 18 years.

A 9.4% surge in the cost of fuel last month to be almost 24% costlier than a year ago, combined with an 8% increase in the price of domestic holiday travel and accommodation, accounted for most of last month's increase in the headline Consumer Price Index.

And finally, the Federal Government will unveil a package of savings in its mid-year budget update as it grapples with conflicting forces buffeting the economy.

The ANZ says a rate hike is locked in.

Westpac says a rate hike is very likely.

CBA had been issuing a hold for rates next week.

They've now shifted to a hike.

But there are some suggestions from some outlets there'll be another rate rise after that.

So Westpac released a statement through their chief economist this afternoon, Lucy Ellis, indicating that a rate hike next week is very likely.

But she writes, the question then turns to the future beyond November.

While we still expect a hawkish tone from the RBA communications, the inflation has clearly toned down.

For the full picture, you'll have to either see the video on YouTube is the best way, but I'll read through some of the highlights.

So we've got Perth predicted to do plus 4% in 2027 by CBA, plus 5% by Westpac, negative 3% by ANZ, 5% to 9% by Domain, and negative 2% to negative 4% by NAB.

NAB's prediction is the most recent done in August.

I tend to agree more with NAB's prediction because this is for the overall median price, negative 2 to negative 4 at the overall median house price.

Auckland's average asking price dropped to $992,000, staying below the $1 million for the fourth consecutive months, with new listings up nearly 6%, while buyers' searches fell 5%.

Financing costs remained elevated, with Westpac reporting fixed mortgage rates between two and five years sitting above 5%, and financial markets predicting an 83% probability of an OCR hike on 28th of October.

Which didn't happen.

That didn't happen, did it? So 83% plus probability to zero as it didn't move.